SIRI Intraday Thread: Monday April 6th

[Brandon Matthews]

For those on a budget there is Game Day Audio is MLB.TV'S radio package.It is a good deal you get all the games and you can choose the from the home or away broadcast teams as well as any games offered in Spanish. It is a good deal however I would suggest that the best deal is Sirius-XM radio. The XM deal is great because you also get all the games. You get the home teams broadcasters however you get the NBA, NFL, NHL, NASCAR, GOLF, SOCCER and college sports. You have to get the XM deal at this point because right now Sirius subscribers do not yet have access to the MLB games. We expect that they will get the games on the Sirius platform before the end of the year but for now best to get XM.

http://www.examiner.com/x-5053-Sport...ty-of-baseball

[relmor2003]

Not to oversimplify things, but if/when a company reaches a profitable position such as we all hope for Sirius. Can you gain an indication of what range the SP should be in based on revenue or net income and assets? I realize that this is a gross understatement of how it works, but is there a basic rule of thumb that can be used?

A companys worth is usually measured by its profits. After all, we all want to make money. As SiriusXM has no profits, its true value will be hard to determine. I personally wouldnt pay more than 4 times their profit(I would want to make money by year 5).
If someone at the SEC actually watched Sirius trade everyday, dont they wonder why ISEG sets the price every morning, and is the only one sometimes in premarket buying and selling shares back and forth. I guess he just thinks, nothing to see here, move along. One person should be setting the price for this stock, not like its a group effort or anything. It should be based on one traders opinion, and that trader has every right to do everything in his power to make it so. Case closed. That would be from his report, word for word.

[Sirius_Stern_Fan]

Is it possible that since SIRI is losing money, the SEC turns a blind eye to situations like that since the company wouldn't trade based on earnings? Just on the possibility of future earnings?

[Demian]

I think they will wait again. It will provide the time necessary to see results from the expected rise in oem sales which will allow for better guidance.

Guidance will move the markets this quarter, not 1Q results.

It may also provide time to get the apple app approved and launched as well as any potential future MLB deal.

It also gives audiovox the opportunity to get product to market.

I'm with you on this one Brandon - I think they wait.....

I think that they have to announce by around the middle of May - unless they file for an extension....

Any negative sub numbers will be easier to digest if the guidance is good and they release the iPhone app.....

If they report early, it indicates to me that the sub numbers will be better than expected......

Cost savings and bottom line numbers will be good no matter what the subs are......

The longer they push it out, the easier any negative sub numbers will be to digest....

[Brandon Matthews]

A companys worth is usually measured by its profits. After all, we all want to make money. As SiriusXM has no profits, its true value will be hard to determine. I personally wouldnt pay more than 4 times their profit(I would want to make money by year 5).
If someone at the SEC actually watched Sirius trade everyday, dont they wonder why ISEG sets the price every morning, and is the only one sometimes in premarket buying and selling shares back and forth. I guess he just thinks, nothing to see here, move along. One person should be setting the price for this stock, not like its a group effort or anything. It should be based on one traders opinion, and that trader has every right to do everything in his power to make it so. Case closed. That would be from his report, word for word.

One disagreement. A company's worth is measured by its *FUTURE* profits. No one, except me of course has assumed an analysis based on future earnings. That may change soon, imho.

[Demian]

Not much action in the Pre-Market yet.....green though.

Sirius XM Radio Inc. (SIRI) Pre-Market Trading

Sirius XM Radio Inc.
Apr. 3, 2009 Market Close: $ 0.351

Pre-Market Trade Reporting

Last: $ .36
Pre-Market
High: $ .36
Pre-Market
Volume: 45,769
Pre-Market
Low: $ .35
Pre-Market
Time (ET) Pre-Market
Price Pre-Market
Share Volume
08:42 $ .36 1,000
08:20 $ .3516 1,659
08:19 $ .35 3,749
08:13 $ .35 251
08:12 $ .3516 5,000
08:11 $ .3501 5,000
08:11 $ .35 4,000
08:11 $ .3516 700
08:10 $ .3516 4,000
08:07 $ .36 1,428
08:07 $ .36 968
08:02 $ .36 250
08:02 $ .36 600
08:02 $ .36 500
08:02 $ .36 1,000
08:02 $ .36 928
08:01 $ .355 570
08:01 $ .353 250
08:01 $ .35 1,500
08:01 $ .35 1,000
08:01 $ .35 480
08:00 $ .35 125
08:00 $ .35 250
08:00 $ .35 6,275
08:00 $ .35 1,286
08:00 $ .36 1,000
08:00 $ .36 950
08:00 $ .36 1,050

[underway]

I'm with you on this one Brandon - I think they wait.....

I think that they have to announce by around the middle of May - unless they file for an extension....

Any negative sub numbers will be easier to digest if the guidance is good and they release the iPhone app.....

If they report early, it indicates to me that the sub numbers will be better than expected......

Cost savings and bottom line numbers will be good no matter what the subs are......

The longer they push it out, the easier any negative sub numbers will be to digest....

I'm sure they're fighting to keep subs from exiting more than they're advertising to expand subscriptions. I say this because I've seen zero TV advertising for S-XM. Not sure what the deal is with that other than spending restraint. Problem is, that isn't going to help. I'm hoping there will be a huge media blitz soon, like when the iPhone app is released.
On the 'fighting to keep subs' front.....I recently experienced the effects....had to cancel three of my radios (still have a bunch) and was met with resistance and phone delays to do it too. Very annoying. I was on the phone with 'customer service' for 30 minutes, with repeated attempts at a sales pitch to not cancel the three radios, even though I was obviously remaining as a customer with a few active radios. As a shareholder, I guess that's good, but as a customer, not so much. But, it's more indicative of a broader problem. Several years ago, didn't have the hard sell to keep me from canceling a radio. Now that's changed. It is annoying to say the least when companies do this.....sign up via simple click of the mouse....but to leave....it's like trying to cancel your membership in the mafia.

[bear]

A companys worth is usually measured by its profits. After all, we all want to make money. As SiriusXM has no profits, its true value will be hard to determine. I personally wouldnt pay more than 4 times their profit(I would want to make money by year 5).
If someone at the SEC actually watched Sirius trade everyday, dont they wonder why ISEG sets the price every morning, and is the only one sometimes in premarket buying and selling shares back and forth. I guess he just thinks, nothing to see here, move along. One person should be setting the price for this stock, not like its a group effort or anything. It should be based on one traders opinion, and that trader has every right to do everything in his power to make it so. Case closed. That would be from his report, word for word.

Relmor,

I remember you posting something about this a few days ago, wanted to give proper credit. Take a look at the attached. It looks like you were right on and there is a clear triangle forming, and we can now see the end. I've been watching this and this morning is the first time a can draw this honestly, and find the end of the triangle. It looks like it closes near the end of the day today and pivots around .36

Any thoughts?

[Brandon Matthews]

Ford just bought back and retired a ***tload of debt. That may help us today.

[asm610]

Ford just bought back and retired a ***tload of debt. That may help us today.

Thanks Brandon....my Ford shares are up significantly from when I bought them, and they seem to be weathering the storm pretty well so far. My hope is that they come out the stronger of the BIG 3 companies after all this Auto insanity, and it is reflected in the SP as always should be the case. Never was much of a Ford guy..been a Bowtie and Mopar lover for years...but the Ford engineers are apparently well ahead of the other 2 boys on the block