Originally Posted by
paratrooper rick
I think the overall consensus among those of us that have a grasp on the REAL and VALID S.P. for SIRI know it's going to go up. Right now - the bottom line we're all getting at - is that we're in a period of consolidation ie. low volume and we are continually getting to a point where the weekly triangle patterns show us nearing a convergence - only to be broken by the MM's artificially putting the SP where they want. Now as FRUSTRATING as all this is... I have to think that at some point - we have to break out - as stated earlier in this thread - the MM's are going to have to move the SP to generate volume.
Unless you are a day/swing trader - and are getting frustrated trying to anticipate movement - you should primarily be protecting your core and being patient. Everyone should have a strategy - but it would be foolish to exit when you know full well we just have to wait out the MM's (who will become impatient with the volume at some point)
Another factor - News/Momentum is starting to build to the upside:
- The numbers on the auto industry side were better than anticipated
- Synergies are just starting to be realized
- Weak hands are getting shaken out of this stock to form a platform for the next upswing
- We are on the cusp of the S-XM Iphone App - and that has the potential to more than double subs IMHO - considering you aren't just looking at streaming S-XM in the areas the satellites cover now - you will start reaching OUTSIDE S-XM'S USUAL SUB REGION - (the perfect storm would be if S-XM started working markets like JAPAN IMHO - they are nutz for tech and it would just take some dedicated content on the international side to rapidly expand)
- I don't think we're seeing everything behind the scenes with the satellites and transmission spectrum. If S-XM can find even the slightest way to exchange some kind of data flow on the existing satellites to Liberty - it would be big. For that matter - if they SOLD some of the spectrum - even a tiny part - it would be huge. (of course I realize they have to maintain coverage for existing receivers on both the SIRI and XM sides - but they can start transitioning one way or the other to consolidate)
- Internet - we are seeing the cracks form in the business models for all the internet radio folks. Not just little cracks but HUGE ones - since they in effect aren't going to survive the coming royalty/content issues. S-XM has a good business model and IMHO will push those jokers out of the way.
- We haven't even discussed the wild-cards yet. And they ARE out there -
Keep faith people - ignore my occasional rants in the day from the manipulation - it's steam venting out. If we panic - the MM's and shorts get what they want.
Don't try to predict - ride the flow.... and if presented with an opportunity to enter lower - be thankful....
~rick