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Thread: Just some common sense

  1. #1
    john is offline
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    Just some common sense

    I know all about tecnical charting and and finding patterns in stocks. The problems with trying to do that with SIRIXM is it is manipulated to much for anyone to be able to follow the charts. Why is it being manipulated? there are many reasons. First the share price allows many people to buy in and play with it. There are just to many people out there that are playing around with it. Second the amount of shares (and low PPS) that are out make it easy to be manipulated (dont have to worry about gettiing cought because it is to hard to track). Third for what ever reason this company has people that dont want to see it make it. Forth and this is the biggest reason there are people that have the money and/or influence that want to make money off it.


    Now you can try and make calls in the very very short term all you want the problem is it only takes one of the things I mentioned above to F that all up. We have seen example after example after example of this when people try to call the movement on the short term. What happens they get it wrong as many times as they get it right that is no surprise though because even they have to say it maybe going lower after saying it will go higher in the same sentence. Trust me on this one, with SIRIXM when you think you have it down, you dont. SIRIXM is one of the most confusing stocks any of us has ever dealt with even the people that like to make the short term calls on it will tell you that.


    Common sense is telling me that when you are dealing with SIRIXM have a plan and stick with it. At least for the time being. If you try trading this stock like a day trader by listening to people that say they can call what is going to happen with SIRIXM on a day by day, hour by hour, or minute by minute basis by following normal charts and patterns. I am not just saying you are going to get burnt. I will guarantee you will get burnt. The one thing that matters now is that it is on a long term uptrend, so if you sell now only to try and get back in at a lower price you are putting yourself at risk.




    Just to be clear, as an example if you bought at .11 and 400% is a good enough return for you then by all means sell at .44, and if it gos down enough afterward that you would like to get back in then that is a plus for you. All I am saying is the last thing I would be doing right now is selling for less then I wanted to in the first place, only because I wanted to get back in again at a lower price.

  2. #2
    Brandon Matthews is offline
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    Supply and demand. That's it. That's what it's all about. The only thing that dictates the price of anything is supply and demand, including stocks.

    Manipulators can play their games, but they too run out of bullets, especially when they incur losses. The uptrend is clear. The undervaluation is clear. This leads to new money being brought in.

    Look at the money flow increase into Sirius XM. I'm not talking about Malone. I'm talking about real dollars buying the equity. The MFI (money flow index) has gone from a 50.68 on March March 9 to 80.42 as of Fridays close. It has been as high as 95.34 on March 18.

    Rule number 1. Buy low, sell high. Yet this is not what people do. They invest on emotion. Right now many are fearful that they are missing something big. They chase stocks. As more and more new money comes into SIRI from the sidelines, the manipulators losses will continue to be substantial, forcing them to continually cover by adding more new money.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SIR...d=p78394934179
    Last edited by Brandon Matthews; 03-29-2009 at 12:20 PM.

  3. #3
    Sworntwofun is offline
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    Hi John and Brandon...

    You guys have always put in print what you believe is the right and best information at the current statis of Sirius... which we all know is full of continous change and a never ending learning experience... and thats all anybody can ask from you all!

    I just wanted to say Thanks.... but most important to let you guys know that your knowledge, common sense and time you spend to keep us here and informed is appreciated and not wasted...

    Let it be a good week and hope (yes i said hope I know this is not a practical
    element of investing or trading) that everyone prospers and makes the best decisions from the collective information that we get from here.....

    And remember the truth may not be pretty but it will always be the truth...

    Sworntwofun
    Last edited by Sworntwofun; 03-29-2009 at 11:43 AM.

  4. #4
    RickF is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brandon Matthews View Post
    Supply and demand. That's it. That's what it's all about. The only thing that dictates the price of anything is supply and demand, including stocks.

    Manipulators can play their games, but they too run out of bullets, especially when they incur losses. The uptrend is clear. The undervaluation is clear. This leads to new money being brought in.

    Look at the money flow increase into Sirius XM. I'm not talking about Malone. I'm talking about real dollars buying the equity. The MFI (money flow index) has gone from a 50.68 on March March 9 to 80.42 as of Fridays close. It has been as high as 95.34 on March 18.

    Rule number 1. Buy high, sell low. Yet this is not what people do. They invest on emotion. Right now many are fearful that they are missing something big. They chase stocks. As more and more new money comes into SIRI from the sidelines, the manipulators losses will continue to be substantial, forcing them to continually cover by adding more new money.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SIR...d=p78394934179
    Hey Brandon - I am confused - i have always tried to buy low and sell high not "Buy high and sell low"

    Am I missing something?

    Rick

    Long Sirius

  5. #5
    Brandon Matthews is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by RickF View Post
    Hey Brandon - I am confused - i have always tried to buy low and sell high not "Buy high and sell low"

    Am I missing something?

    Rick

    Long Sirius
    Yeah. My morning coffee!

  6. #6
    RickF is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brandon Matthews View Post
    Yeah. My morning coffee!
    LOL - I am told that Bailey's REALLY picks you up with your first cuppa java!!

  7. #7
    relmor2003 is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by RickF View Post


    LOL - I am told that Bailey's REALLY picks you up with your first cuppa java!!
    Drinking coffee right now. I couldnt disagree with Johns post more. And yet its useful as well.
    Yes, John, your post is full of logic and common sense. Yes, it is more controlled by manipulators than most stocks. I agree. Due to large share volume and price. Makes it a LOT EASIER. But as you can see, their control is slipping has slipped, and even shows signs of weakness. There are a ton of technical traders that see what we see in the charts, and will be jumping on this chance. Any news catalyst, or just ONE BIG BUYER, just one, will set this off. Patterns in MANIPULATION are just as important to locate and acknowledge. If you even mention the word manipulation to some traders, they wont talk to you anymore. They dont care. They only care what they see. And right now, what I see is a huge buying opportunity for the next leg up going bye bye now, and slowing fading away. Volume is drying up. This thing must now move. You may have a few more days to grap shares in the .30-.40 cent range. But if you werent buying already, then I dont know what to tell people. What were you waiting for? Time to make money now!!

  8. #8
    cos1000 is offline
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    John, I agree with common sense approach to investing. Having a plan to take your position is every bit as important on having one to get out of your position when things go right or when they do not. Before taking a position in an equity, any equity, and especially SXM being more speculative than most, it is always best to have an entry and exit strategy for your investment.

    This is the most difficult part of "Investing" that new investors, and we were all new investors at one time, have to learn to maximize profits and minimize losses. Sirius Xm is a great incubator for that learning curve to be born out, both on its way down.... and as it now tries to retrace back up. Most of us can now say we have experienced both and could have done better given what we now know, but that's not how we make money in the future.

    My strategy is based in all tools that I hear mentioned on this site and others, but having the "Plan" consisting of when and how to take a position, establish a "Loss Strategy", establishing a "Profit taking" and even a "Let it run" Strategy are the most important before I begin. As Brandon has pointed out and I think John would agree, too many times "Investing" is more like gambling and is based on Emotion not Strategy based on facts on the ground. We all experience the "Train (or Bus) is leaving the station" mentality that has us quickly acting emotionally rather than sticking with our plan...

    Using Technical analysis is a great way to help you stick to a plan and have you take a position in your beloved equity at the right time in its charting cycle... Volume of shares being traded, Money Flow Charting, Various Moving Averages (13,20,50,200) and where the SP is in relation to these are also helpful in determining momentum, direction, and price points for taking new positions or taking profits.

    I guess my point here is the more Fact based your entry and exit points are on any given entry point the more you will maximize your returns on your positions taken. The other point that needs to be included in the Plan for investing is your TIME Horizon. This to me is what makes one a "Trader" vs "Investor". The shorter your time horizon the more "Trader" one is and the longer the time horizon the more "Investor" one becomes... "Day Trader" defines the most agressive, with "Buy and Hold" Investor defining a most Conservative approach. Which you decide to be will also determine the Equities that you take positions in and those you will not. The truth of the matter is the more frequent you invest, the more you will become both. To me it is never about being Right or Wrong, but about being Profitable by making money on your positions taken, regardless of the equity...

  9. #9
    cos1000 is offline
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    Just to add on more point about manipulation.... It just does not matter in the short or long term if you have a plan for your investment... Manipulation is the "Ghost in the Machine" that is present in all equities... Shorts manipulate and so do Longs. As long as the Manipulation is part of the legal trading strategies that exist in the system, it is a fairly even playing field, and is why having a plan for buying and selling an equity is most important.... Just because a stock is actively traded up or down doesn't make it bad. Volatility breeds opportunity...

  10. #10
    Greenland is offline
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    what's good guys ?

    will Siri shoot up again after Obama talks about giving more money to GM and Chrys ?

    pessimists -> <- optimists

  11. Ad Fairy Senior Member
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