Brandon said

[MUSCLE13]

Exactly why would anyone say this year is gone when the season hasn't started yet? Thats just really REALLY strange. How many cable contracts or Sat TV contracts have gone to the last minute with sports carriage or cable network carriage. I can't count there have been so many. Some even go a few days past a deadline.

I don't know what you guys are reading when you see that promo to get your baseball on XM, but I am reading one thing from that email - MLB You better move on this or we will just promote XM baseball and you are screwed out of half of the listeners. I think that was a GREAT EMAIL PROMO for negotiating by Sirius.

[homer985]

I don't know what you guys are reading when you see that promo to get your baseball on XM, but I am reading one thing from that email - MLB You better move on this or we will just promote XM baseball and you are screwed out of half of the listeners. I think that was a GREAT EMAIL PROMO for negotiating by Sirius.

We'll find out in 9 days -- but with what I understand the structure of the deal to be, what I know about MLB & their teams and the current state of the economy and the impact on the clubs -- my professional opinion is that it will not happen this year.


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[homer985]

SXM got what they wanted already by getting the Escrow Funds released of $120M to cover 2009 and 2010....

Good catch -- I've been somewhat disconnected from the financials in some areas and hadn't seen this. Just looked it up... that certainly helps out with FCF for 2009 and 2010. I mean, it takes the need for $60MM for CF for each year, right out of the picture.

As you'll recall, the MLB escrow payment was to be used for the 2011 and 2012 season, so being able to use them for 2009 and 2010 is very helpful -- and the fact that they do not need to re-fund the escrow account shows some level of confidence by MLB in Sirius XM.

Well FWIW, this is kind of a big deal for me... I've been very focused on FCF for a long time and see this as big. I'm sorry I didn't see it earlier. Between this and the NASCAR escrow release -- the total of $80MM being paid out from escrow for 2009, could be the difference in the company having positive Operating cashflow for the full year -- with the only negative draw being on the satellite launch expenses.

This changes the picture somewhat for me... thanks.



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[relmor2003]

[QUOTE=homer985;25077][QUOTE=cos1000;25039]SXM got what they wanted already by getting the Escrow Funds released of $120M to cover 2009 and 2010....

Good catch -- I've been somewhat disconnected from the financials in some areas and hadn't seen this. Just looked it up... that certainly helps out with FCF for 2009 and 2010. I mean, it takes the need for $60MM for CF for each year, right out of the picture.

As you'll recall, the MLB escrow payment was to be used for the 2011 and 2012 season, so being able to use them for 2009 and 2010 is very helpful -- and the fact that they do not need to re-fund the escrow account shows some level of confidence by MLB in Sirius XM.

Well FWIW, this is kind of a big deal for me... I've been very focused on FCF for a long time and see this as big. I'm sorry I didn't see it earlier. Between this and the NASCAR escrow release -- the total of $80MM being paid out from escrow for 2009, could be the difference in the company having positive Operating cashflow for the full year -- with the only negative draw being on the satellite launch expenses.

This changes the picture somewhat for me... thanks.



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Well Homer, if your happy on the balance sheet end of things, Im happy. I know I havent talked about the MLB news yet, but it is huge, I agree. It shows HUGE confidence in SiriusXM, and means that they are communicating effectively with them. At least it proves MLB can make a decision and there is no more mystery about how this account plays out. Homer, with this news, and assume even a minor car improvement to end the year(add that to higher penetration rates, Iphone app, etc...) do you feel that their 300 million positive EBITA is now conservative, or in line with expectations? Basically did SiriusXM account for before mentioned items by me when arriving at this figure?

[JohnnyIrishXM]

[QUOTE=relmor2003;25080][QUOTE=homer985;25077]

SXM got what they wanted already by getting the Escrow Funds released of $120M to cover 2009 and 2010....

Well Homer, if your happy on the balance sheet end of things, Im happy. I know I havent talked about the MLB news yet, but it is huge, I agree. It shows HUGE confidence in SiriusXM, and means that they are communicating effectively with them. At least it proves MLB can make a decision and there is no more mystery about how this account plays out. Homer, with this news, and assume even a minor car improvement to end the year(add that to higher penetration rates, Iphone app, etc...) do you feel that their 300 million positive EBITA is now conservative, or in line with expectations? Basically did SiriusXM account for before mentioned items by me when arriving at this figure?

Yes they did account for it,but remember they have to pay $25mil by may and
$50 mil in 3Q and then $25mil to Liberty for extending out $100 mil of May debt.also bigger int expense..this was all factored into EBITDA of "well above 300 mil"for 09 year.Myself looking to see how much rev they get in 1Q for signing up existing subs for best of and on-line..My calculations are for everyone who signed up for at least 2 years is like adding 1 net sub of rev for each year extended..EX;I signed up for 3 years in advance,like adding 2 net subs of rev for 09....of course they will have to account for it next year and so forth,but bye then Auto 's should be back and retail should be booming..

[john]

Good catch -- I've been somewhat disconnected from the financials in some areas and hadn't seen this. Just looked it up... that certainly helps out with FCF for 2009 and 2010. I mean, it takes the need for $60MM for CF for each year, right out of the picture.

As you'll recall, the MLB escrow payment was to be used for the 2011 and 2012 season, so being able to use them for 2009 and 2010 is very helpful -- and the fact that they do not need to re-fund the escrow account shows some level of confidence by MLB in Sirius XM.

Well FWIW, this is kind of a big deal for me... I've been very focused on FCF for a long time and see this as big. I'm sorry I didn't see it earlier. Between this and the NASCAR escrow release -- the total of $80MM being paid out from escrow for 2009, could be the difference in the company having positive Operating cashflow for the full year -- with the only negative draw being on the satellite launch expenses.

This changes the picture somewhat for me... thanks.



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OK homer, now that has gone to far. Are you going to tell me you missed this thread:

http://siriusbuzz.com/forum/showthre...?t=1589&page=2


Goto second and third pages. Now I know while it was me that was involved in the subject, there were others also, like relmar, and Newman. You did not have to just take my word on it. YOU BASTARD.

[homer985]

OK homer, now that has gone to far. Are you going to tell me you missed this thread:

http://siriusbuzz.com/forum/showthre...?t=1589&page=2


Goto second and third pages. Now I know while it was me that was involved in the subject, there were others also, like relmar, and Newman. You did not have to just take my word on it. YOU BASTARD.

I missed the conference call (I'm very busy working at that time of the morning). And when I came to the site and saw a 4 page thread -- I skipped it. Yes, my own fault - but I just don't have that kind of time to spend going through page after page. Sorry.



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[kingreecan]

My take on this is it's a little game between SXM, MLB and the Sirius subs that have an interest in MLB on a best of XM package: could very well be an agreement in place already (or the makings of one) as well as some posturing between SXM and MLB; more importantly, by keeping the public opinion as there is 'no resolution at this time', it creates a sense of urgency that the Sirius subs interested in MLB will suffer through until the time comes that the 'deal is done'. Once that is released, the SXM sub that wanted MLB will feel so happy that they can now listen to MLB through their subscription that there will be a higher capture rate of them purchasing the package. That's my Psy degree opinion (got an A in Psychology of the Masses/Groups in college!!!).

[Joeboo1]

I don't believe the merger would have happened unless Mel was very confident he would be able to put Howard and the NFL on XM and Baseball on Sirius.

I see this all as negotiating tactics. I would be absolutely shocked if Baseball isn't available to Sirius subs by Opening Day. I think the media and the blogs have it completely wrong. In media distribution it is very common for negotiations on sports team carriage to come down to the final hours.

I believe your right. If you want to know how copper wire was invented Mel and someone else were fighting over an old penny.. True story!

[john]

I missed the conference call (I'm very busy working at that time of the morning). And when I came to the site and saw a 4 page thread -- I skipped it. Yes, my own fault - but I just don't have that kind of time to spend going through page after page. Sorry

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No No homer I am sorry. I thought we were messing around. I figured you did see it and were doing that thing they do (you know what I am talking about). So I was just playing along. Anyway your still a BASTARD in my book. Take care buddy.