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Thread: Brandon said

  1. #1
    MUSCLE13 is offline
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    Brandon said

    on the show last night that he didn't think MLB and Sirius would make deal this year to put the games on Sirius.

    My opinion - All you are seeing right now is negotiating tactics between the 2 entities. I think there is a great chance a deal is made before Opening Day to get the games on Sirius/Best of XM. Mel has always been a deal maker through out his career. I see this as a process that may come down to the final hours.

    There are thousands and thousands of Sirius subs right now that think that MLB is going to be on Sirius because of the merger. Most people don't know there is no deal yet. Not everybody reads blogs. Will Mel let everybody down?

  2. #2
    homer985 is offline
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    As I understand things -- there is a big difference between dealing with MLB and dealing with NFL, NBA and any other sports for that matter.

    In most other instances, you're dealing with the parent organization -- but with MLB, not only do they need approval of MLB, but you also need approval from all 30 clubs... it really F's things up and drags them out. All it takes is one small-market club to hold out for more or to say "no" -- that they want the contract to stay as is... and Sirius is screwed.

    I do not anticipate a deal this year for MLB on Sirius. The economy is hurting sports big time right now -- the clubs are likely looking for too much money... more than what Sirius is willing to pay out to add to their broadcast. Especially when Sirius and XM are looking to try and cut expenses.

    Not this year, IMHO.


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  3. #3
    imromo24 is offline
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    I gotta say, im glad i didn't have a sub before, now I have XM and this doesn't affect me because I got best of sirius. MLB however is a huge selling point, baseball is a a great "radio" sport.

  4. #4
    MUSCLE13 is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by homer985 View Post
    As I understand things -- there is a big difference between dealing with MLB and dealing with NFL, NBA and any other sports for that matter.

    In most other instances, you're dealing with the parent organization -- but with MLB, not only do they need approval of MLB, but you also need approval from all 30 clubs... it really F's things up and drags them out. All it takes is one small-market club to hold out for more or to say "no" -- that they want the contract to stay as is... and Sirius is screwed.

    I do not anticipate a deal this year for MLB on Sirius. The economy is hurting sports big time right now -- the clubs are likely looking for too much money... more than what Sirius is willing to pay out to add to their broadcast. Especially when Sirius and XM are looking to try and cut expenses.

    Not this year, IMHO.


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    I don't believe the merger would have happened unless Mel was very confident he would be able to put Howard and the NFL on XM and Baseball on Sirius.

    I see this all as negotiating tactics. I would be absolutely shocked if Baseball isn't available to Sirius subs by Opening Day. I think the media and the blogs have it completely wrong. In media distribution it is very common for negotiations on sports team carriage to come down to the final hours.

  5. #5
    sxminvestor is offline
    Quote Originally Posted by MUSCLE13 View Post
    I don't believe the merger would have happened unless Mel was very confident he would be able to put Howard and the NFL on XM and Baseball on Sirius.

    I see this all as negotiating tactics. I would be absolutely shocked if Baseball isn't available to Sirius subs by Opening Day. I think the media and the blogs have it completely wrong. In media distribution it is very common for negotiations on sports team carriage to come down to the final hours.
    I actually think it may be a positive for now that it does not go on Sirius because it may help increase subs on XM for full price as opposed to just getting some upgrades to the best of XM. This could cause churn on XM primary subs if it's someone who also has Sirius.

    I'm not even sure how they would handle all the additional channels on Sirius network anyhow. As it is now, they play sports on Bloomberg and other channels that are not set aside for sports only.

    I would rather see everything settle in for 2009 and see this happen in 2010 when they have sub momentum building again, OEM sales strengthen and they are operating profitably.

    I'm sure most realize that the churn has increased because of the Best of option and the Mirge radio could also cause some churn if they count it as 1 subscription. Of course ARPU increases, which is the positive affect.

    I have XM and Sirius and as a stockholder, I'm not in a hurry to hear MLB on Sirius.

  6. #6
    MUSCLE13 is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by sxminvestor View Post
    I actually think it may be a positive for now that it does not go on Sirius because it may help increase subs on XM for full price as opposed to just getting some upgrades to the best of XM. This could cause churn on XM primary subs if it's someone who also has Sirius.

    I'm not even sure how they would handle all the additional channels on Sirius network anyhow. As it is now, they play sports on Bloomberg and other channels that are not set aside for sports only.

    I would rather see everything settle in for 2009 and see this happen in 2010 when they have sub momentum building again, OEM sales strengthen and they are operating profitably.

    I'm sure most realize that the churn has increased because of the Best of option and the Mirge radio could also cause some churn if they count it as 1 subscription. Of course ARPU increases, which is the positive affect.

    I have XM and Sirius and as a stockholder, I'm not in a hurry to hear MLB on Sirius.

    Sorry but the large majority of people just don't switch Sirius and XM in their car. The numbers proved that out in the DOJ decision on the merger. People choose between Sat Radio or free radio in their car. Free radio is the competition.

    As Mel said on the call 3/4 of the people getting Best of are getting Best of Sirius. Only 1/4 are getting Best of XM. Am I gonna pay more to listen to Oprah? No. But baseball? Sure. ARPU is the key to just about all the metrics of this merger.

  7. #7
    sxminvestor is offline
    Quote Originally Posted by MUSCLE13 View Post
    Sorry but the large majority of people just don't switch Sirius and XM in their car. The numbers proved that out in the DOJ decision on the merger. People choose between Sat Radio or free radio in their car. Free radio is the competition.

    As Mel said on the call 3/4 of the people getting Best of are getting Best of Sirius. Only 1/4 are getting Best of XM. Am I gonna pay more to listen to Oprah? No. But baseball? Sure. ARPU is the key to just about all the metrics of this merger.
    I don't disagree, but the short term affect is also churn and I'd rather see them stave off the possibility of negative net adds in the very short-term. I'm sure if Mel thought that the additional $ MLB wants would bring in that much more revenue for the Best of XM, he would do it. But the idea here was to reduce the costs and MLB is betting Sirius needs them more than they need the revenue, I guess. I hope they can get a better deal in 2012, but MLB is definately playing hardball here, no pun intended !

  8. #8
    MUSCLE13 is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by sxminvestor View Post
    I don't disagree, but the short term affect is also churn and I'd rather see them stave off the possibility of negative net adds in the very short-term. I'm sure if Mel thought that the additional $ MLB wants would bring in that much more revenue for the Best of XM, he would do it. But the idea here was to reduce the costs and MLB is betting Sirius needs them more than they need the revenue, I guess. I hope they can get a better deal in 2012, but MLB is definately playing hardball here, no pun intended !
    I am really surprised to read what I am reading on all the posts and the blogs. Basically I think this is standard negotiation for sports rights, and its not that unusual (but gut-wrenching) that both sides would wait until the last minute to get the best deal possible.

    What really disappoints me about these sat radio blogs is it seems that nobody has studied the history on how the media business works.

    I know Homer is in the radio business. Has Brandon Tyler or Charles ever followed any other radio companies before Sirius existed? I am really curious. Sometimes I am shocked what I read.
    Last edited by MUSCLE13; 03-27-2009 at 03:38 PM.

  9. #9
    homer985 is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by MUSCLE13 View Post
    I am really surprised to read what I am reading on all the posts and the blogs. Basically I think this is standard negotiation for sports rights, and its not that unusual (but gut-wrenching) that both sides would wait until the last minute to get the best deal possible.
    Just keep in mind that you're not only dealing with MLB here... it's MLB, the 30 individual clubs and probably even MLB Advanced Media as well -- who are royal pains in the ass (I've had dealings with them). This is very important to remember.

    Regardless, opening day is in 10 days... I do not believe that it will be on Sirius come April 6th. One key reason? The email that both Sirius and XM sent out 2 days ago promoting MLB on XM, with an offer to buy an XM radio. This went out to BOTH XM and Sirius subscribers. Plus given the timing being only 10 days out?

    Not this year... wait till next.



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  10. #10
    cos1000 is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by MUSCLE13 View Post
    I am really surprised to read what I am reading on all the posts and the blogs. Basically I think this is standard negotiation for sports rights, and its not that unusual (but gut-wrenching) that both sides would wait until the last minute to get the best deal possible.
    This is not a Last Minute Negotiating tactic..... The Baseball Season as a revenue or subscriber adding Marketing tool for SXM to offer this to Sirius Subscribers has already past for Maximum Effect.... Its just not worth the extra dollars for this year if they are only going to flow to the MLB... SXM got what they wanted already by getting the Escrow Funds released of $120M to cover 2009 and 2010.... Let the real negotiations begin next year and see where both entities are in their ability to negotiate, that is MLB and SXM... this year is gone for Sirius Subs.....
    Last edited by cos1000; 03-27-2009 at 06:20 PM.

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