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  1. homer985 is offline
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    03-25-2009, 11:54 AM #21
    Hate to quash this discussion so definatively -- but I kinda have no choice...

    Quote Originally Posted by FCC Merger R&O
    "Many broadcasters contacted the Commission regarding the merged entity’s threat to local programming and advertising. Because local advertising revenue traditionally accounts for over 70% of radio revenues, it is critical to local broadcaster’s business model. The original licenses, and this Order, unambiguously prohibit local programming- including local advertising. Likewise, the parties have agreed that they do not now, nor do they intend to, air local programming. This Order specifically finds that they must refrain from airing any local programming or advertising whatsoever over terrestrial repeaters or future technologies. All programming aired by the merged entity will be available strictly on a nationwide basis. This is yet another area where the FCC will be carefully monitoring the compliance of the companies. Parties that feel a violation of this prohibition has occurred are encouraged to contact the Commission and file a complaint."
    I'll add that both the original license R&O and the merger R&O discussed at length the potential impact of DARS on local advertising. It was determined that there will be no impact on local advertising -- and they took steps to prevent DARS from using their repeaters and other future technologies from generating local advertising. This is a protection for terrestrial radio that will not be removed, nor will the FCC allow it to be circumvented.

    Like it or not, terrestrial radio is not going anywhere. The FCC will not allow it. Sure, DARS could impact the overall listenership, but it will not allow it to go away. There are too many licenses generating regular $$ in fees for the FCC. Local radio is too important to the landscape of media for each metro area.

    And FWIW, the FCC reserves the power to put additional conditions on the two DARS licenses (via the original R&O), to protect local radio to prevent it from going under.

    Quote Originally Posted by FCC DARS Licensing R&O
    "There is uncertainty inherent in any attempt to predict the impact of satellite DARS on the terrestrial radio industry. The technologies, structure, and regulation of the communications industry are changing dramatically. Developments in the next decade may significantly change the market for both satellite DARS and terrestrial broadcasting. Although opponents of satellite DARS have not shown that it will have a sudden and dramatic adverse impact on terrestrial broadcasting, we cannot entirely rule out the possibility of a major adverse impact. We emphasize that we remain committed to supporting a vibrant and vital terrestrial radio service for the public. Accordingly, we will continue to monitor and evaluate the potential and actual impact of satellite DARS, particularly in small radio markets, so that we will be able to take any necessary action to safeguard the important service that terrestrial radio provides."
    Regardless, despite a 10% dip in advertising in 2008, terrestrial radio still managed to generate nearly $20BB in advertising revenue.

    What you are more likely to see -- moving into the future -- is more and more major broadcast companies spinning off stations around the country, back to "mom and pop" owners. The "mom and pop" owners sold off the stations to the big owners during the 90's... making big $$. The Wall St. companies bled them dry and now is forced with writing down the bloated values that they paid for them. I believe you're more likely to see them sell them back off -- as Wall St. will eventually move out of radio. This will allow the mom and pop owners to get back to what they did best. Sure they may not have the listernship they once had -- or the huge revenue -- but they will still be around.

    I'm sorry if you think that terrestrial radio will just go away -- I disagree with you greatly. What you see as the current form of terrestrial radio may change, but it won't go away. The FCC will not allow it. Not as long as there is billions in local advertising being put into it on a combined nationwide basis.



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    Last edited by homer985; 03-25-2009 at 12:04 PM.

  2. tim wallick is offline
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    03-25-2009, 12:08 PM #22
    for now its up to Hughes to do the targeted local stuff and Sirius will only do national that would comply with the context of the fcc order.

    they can do local as long as its broadcast on a national basis?

  3. trippingthespeculatingpos is offline
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    03-25-2009, 12:11 PM #23
    The fcc can always change things when they dont make sense. Plus nab had alot of power and were able to get the fcc on their side, when satrad has all the money and power on THEIR side then they can do the same as what the nab did. never say never. Im not saying terrestrial radio will go away, i just think fm will go the way of am and barely ever be listend too. Old technologies die out thats just the way it is, they will fight tooth and nail to stay alive but eventually they will die. Its like some1 invents a cellular phone and people kept using walkie talkies instead, i know that happens sometimes but usually it just a matter of time before the better improved technology wins out.
    Last edited by trippingthespeculatingpos; 03-25-2009 at 12:14 PM.

  4. homer985 is offline
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    03-25-2009, 12:30 PM #24
    Quote Originally Posted by Newman View Post
    Put out a couple of channels for ALL RADIOS which are ad supported. Unfortunately, the wording of the FCC license agreement means that they cannot be locally targeted by terrestrial repeater. But I do like jmm's idea about using GPS to allow the SATELLITES to do it.
    Newman, the licensing for DARS specifically allows the license holders to do exactly this -- well, close to exactly this:

    "...we conclude that the principal use of the satellite DARS spectrum is likely to involve the licensee receiving compensation from subscribers. We note, however, that our "principal use" determination does not in any way preclude satellite DARS licensees from providing any amount of non-subscription service, and they are not precluded from recovering auction costs, as well as the costs of construction, launch, and operation from sources other than subscribers, such as advertising."
    But with this said, the merger order specifically says that any kind of advertising will have to be broadcast on a national basis - they cannot use new technology to allow it to broadcast local content to specific locations only.

    Really, the only way to get local advertising on anything carried over DARS - is by it airing nationally. Unfortuately, most local advertisers will not be able to afford the rates that a national advertiser would normally pay. This is going to limit the smaller local advertisers options.



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  5. homer985 is offline
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    03-25-2009, 12:33 PM #25
    Quote Originally Posted by trippingthespeculatingpos View Post
    Im not saying terrestrial radio will go away, i just think fm will go the way of am and barely ever be listend too. Old technologies die out thats just the way it is, they will fight tooth and nail to stay alive but eventually they will die.
    Local advertising made up nearly $14BB of the nearly $20BB that Radio billed in 2008... and that is in a down economy. This is $14BB (give or take some depending on the economy) that DARS will never be able to touch. There was about $3BB in national advertising that DARS will be able to dip in to... but to date, it has not done much of it. As long as revenue is this strong, terrestrial radio is not going anywhere.

    Furthermore, the -- Emergency Alert System -- Radio plays too important a roll to the delivery of this content and the structure of this system. The FCC will not allow it.

    Sorry, I disagree with you greatly.



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    Last edited by homer985; 03-25-2009 at 12:38 PM.

  6. trippingthespeculatingpos is offline
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    03-25-2009, 12:35 PM #26
    is is possible for sirius to lobby the fcc to change this, and new people at the fcc could completely disagree with the old fcc's decisions. Not to mention if the nab's influence dies off a bit as well.

  7. trippingthespeculatingpos is offline
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    03-25-2009, 12:37 PM #27
    well except the fact that if ur in the middle of nowhere u cant get this emergency alert system, its the same reason they are making tv's switch to digital, the new technology is a better way to deliver these emergency alerts. Satellite is a better delivery system period, and eventually this will be the normal delivery system.

  8. trippingthespeculatingpos is offline
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    03-25-2009, 12:38 PM #28
    im not saying fm and am bands wont always be there but satellite will be the mainstream delivery of radio. Just wait homer in 20 years you will see i am right haha :O Eventually fcc will realize the stupidity in using an inferior service to deliver emergency alerts. not to mention i have heard this is a test a few times over satrad.
    Last edited by trippingthespeculatingpos; 03-25-2009 at 12:41 PM.

  9. homer985 is offline
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    03-25-2009, 12:42 PM #29
    Quote Originally Posted by trippingthespeculatingpos View Post
    is is possible for sirius to lobby the fcc to change this, and new people at the fcc could completely disagree with the old fcc's decisions. Not to mention if the nab's influence dies off a bit as well.
    No... not the current administration. The Democrats will be even more against changing things like this than the Republicans. The Dems very much oppose deregulation of media, especially radio.

    IMHO, regardless of what administration is in there -- it is not likely to change.


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  10. homer985 is offline
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    03-25-2009, 12:47 PM #30
    Quote Originally Posted by trippingthespeculatingpos View Post
    well except the fact that if ur in the middle of nowhere u cant get this emergency alert system, its the same reason they are making tv's switch to digital, the new technology is a better way to deliver these emergency alerts. Satellite is a better delivery system period, and eventually this will be the normal delivery system.
    Do you realize how many local EAS alerts and tests are sent locally on a daily basis, collectively around the country? It is impossible for DARS to be the sole delivery of every alert that needs to be sent out -- as it would be constant interruptions on every channel. The only way will be by local generation of local content -- which DARS are prevented from doing.

    As for being in the middle of nowhere -- the overwhelming majority of the populous of the USA live within a metro that has broadcast radio coverage and are able to receive EAS alerts.



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