Most people in the market long enough dont even read analyist opinions. They are used more to lead you away from a stock, or justify a price manipulation, than anything useful. .50 cent short term price target is terrible news, if you would think it mattered. Thats only .08 cents off the price we hit a few days ago. Only huge news moves this stock.
Daytraders might use them for quick jumps, if they feel the analist in question has had an effect on the stock in the past. Downgrades can affect a stock for like a day or so, thats about it. Upgrades same thing. I like to buy spec stocks to all be in a sell position, and the price target being lowered recently as well. This means a long road ahead for the stock, but maximum upside.
Last edited by relmor2003; 03-20-2009 at 11:11 AM.
Something I find fascinating is how much not-so-obvious data some of these guys like relmor can dig up. Others speculating why a stock moves never holds much value for me but it's always great to hear your thoughts on the numbers.
When looking at future auto sales the important data is not current production or sales. What is important is
How many people can afford to buy a car?
Take the number of people who can afford a new car, divide by number of years people who can afford a new car drive that car before replacing and you have your basic number of cars per year.
Currently there are more then 175,000,000 Americans with a job. If only .5 have a job that pays enough to buy a new car you have 87,500,000 people who buy new. If they drive the car 10 years you have 8,750,000 people who buy new each year. So what we have today is people with 10 year old cars buying new ones.
Once people become aware of how cheap new cars are there will not be enough new cars on dealers lots.
Mathematically it is difficult to project less then 9 million per year and really you can't even justify it being that low. It's not money thats preventing auto sales from going up.
Auto sales benefit from snowball effect. (neighbor buys a new car, soon whole block has new car) So once it starts increase in sales will be rapid.
Back from my tour. Very informative. All I will say, is that I can now sleep at night, go out and play in the sun or snow, and keep accumulating shares....
Ignore the stock price. Really.
Mogami,
I hear you. I don't know when... but auto sales will pick up.. and when they do they will break out of this slump with a vengeance.