SIRI Intraday Thread: Friday March 20th / Weekend Edition

[john]

argument deleted.

[sl62]

They need more volume. Volume is dropping of now. This is a good thing if institutions are already bought in. To generate volume they can drop it or raise the price when volume dries up....
They lowered in....
Now they will raise it soon. When, as this stock is still under complete MM control, Im not sure. Usually when volume stays stagnant for a couple days, then it will move.

Rel...

Did you get the .25-ish today? This one was gettable. I just watched, no new buys today. Not that I wouldn't have but my trading funds are tied up elsewhere in the portfolio at the moment...

More shakeout today..shorts are covering now as we speak...maybe some new buying just coming in too...we probably finish about even today...

[RU Sirius]

To expand on my last question.....I see a bunch of large lots on the ask side right now and very small lots on the bid side.

In general is this going to make the SP go down b/c there's lots of people wanting to sell and not many wanting to buy?

I just don't understand how the bid/ask end up matching to make a sale I guess.

[airman]

argument deleted.

[Brandon Matthews]

Brandon,

Glad you made it back unscathed LOL...

Appreciate your comments after being in the teeth of the beast...and I think you know most of us have been ignoring the SP for some time in relation to the actual business operation...

Let me just say that the Miller Tabek analysis is pretty close to what I beleive will occur. I told Paul I wouldn't write about certain aspects of our conversation as some of it is dependant on market conditions, which no one can predict right now.

I will say that even if I end up being right about top line numbers, the company's bottom line will still improve year over year.

We got into a discussion regarding subs and how they are broken down. Expect a change in the way the numbers are broken down in time.

Also, install rates are going up.

[Danzo]

Let me just say that the Miller Tabek analysis is pretty close to what I beleive will occur.

What's their definition of "long-term" price target?

[choirgirl]

HI mogami,
I guess I mentioned that a few days ago already, the German stimulus includes a bonus for new car buyers of 2500 Euro. It started about 6 weeks ago and the sales for February were up over 200 %, some dealer ships were totally wiped out. Ford now has a 6 month waiting period for the Ka and Opel's (GM) Corsa is about 5 month. I really believe things like that are much better than TARP etc.

When looking at future auto sales the important data is not current production or sales. What is important is
How many people can afford to buy a car?
Take the number of people who can afford a new car, divide by number of years people who can afford a new car drive that car before replacing and you have your basic number of cars per year.

Currently there are more then 175,000,000 Americans with a job. If only .5 have a job that pays enough to buy a new car you have 87,500,000 people who buy new. If they drive the car 10 years you have 8,750,000 people who buy new each year. So what we have today is people with 10 year old cars buying new ones.

Once people become aware of how cheap new cars are there will not be enough new cars on dealers lots.

Mathematically it is difficult to project less then 9 million per year and really you can't even justify it being that low. It's not money thats preventing auto sales from going up.

Auto sales benefit from snowball effect. (neighbor buys a new car, soon whole block has new car) So once it starts increase in sales will be rapid.

[john]

So Demian you sold at .30 and bought it all back at .2713? So you save yourself like 2000-5000 bucks? Not bad. I apologize if I ever questioned your selling too early...

dmo, he still sold to early, remember it did go as high as .43. As a matter of fact I dont know why he bought back so soon if he sold at .30 he had to feel it was going to go even lower then .27. So while he can take credit for calling a big pull back I dont think it is at the point he originally thought it would be.

[sl62]

Now it's just a matter of determining a valid entry point for my speculative holding in SIRI. Trying to determine if I should hold out for monday or reenter today.... plenty of time to think it out - I'm not seeing any indication we'll jump anytime soon....

It is definitely blatant - there are 3 Gigantic spikes downward in the charts - biggest being yesterday - indicating someone tripping the stops. So for each of the last 3 days - at some point - there was a massive sell tripping stops and driving us down.

It's enough to make you sick to the stomach....

Brandon - I am wishing I was up there with you - because IF you somehow got convinced there is nothing to worry about - I don't currently share the same sentiment.

feel free to pour in some more words of encouragement for the group - or is it all covert / hush info straight from SXM - ?

Para...

You've had some solid input on the SP. Remember, we said days ago that when a stock is "in play" it is subject to heavy volitility (both ways). It's a battle royal. When buyers pull back, shorts regain control and on a thin V, they can pounce (like last 2 days). BUT. They also know the rules of the game have changes. No longer will they be shorting leg after leg after leg down. NOw they hyave opposition which makes them jumpy too to cover and lock in short-term gains. They held the .43 fort well. That was the exact same fort they held in late October on that Limit Down morning. We bounced from .21 in Pre to .44 and they stoned it there. Almost identical to this time. This high was .435. They won't be able to hold that positon next time however now that we pulled back first without going higher.

[Sundevil]

I just bought SIRI back @ .2733....................seconds ago.

Welcome back in the sess-pool Demian!!

The water's great!