Page 2 of 3 123
Results 11 to 20 of 27
  1. homer985 is offline
    Senior Member
    homer985's Avatar
    Joined: Mar 2008 Posts: 485
    03-14-2009, 01:43 PM #11
    Quote Originally Posted by cos1000 View Post
    XM Net subs were Sep 30, 08 : 9.896M and at Dec 31,08 was 9.851M for a net loss of 45K subs. Also they lost a significant portion of the Combined Retail Sub loss going from a loss of 90K as of Sept 30,08 to a loss of 278K as of Dec 31,08 for a net loss in Q4 of 188K..... Their declining Retail accounted for the overal loss of subs, that couldn't be picked up by their gains in OEM subs..... that's my take anyways......
    You earned the thumbs up!

    One correction though... the retail sub loss was 179K at the end of Q3, which increased by 99K to 278K for the full year.

    Sirius had 128K NET Q4 subs, while XM had (45K) NET for Q4.

    I have a full spread sheet of data that I put together last night.

    Before anyone jumps on XM over this -- it is very evident that XM was slammed at retail, because of the merger and the rumor of bankruptcy surrounding the combined company. There was very limited marketing in the quarter to boot.


    --------

  2. cos1000 is offline
    Senior Member
    cos1000's Avatar
    Joined: Mar 2008 Posts: 402
    03-14-2009, 01:46 PM #12
    All in all it means the trend for XM's slide in retail and now for the year, even though Sirius' net adds were only 8K more for the year is ongoing.... of the total retail loss for the year of 333.6K, we know that XM accounted for 278K vs Sirius' 55.5K in retail losses.... I guess this is to be expected with all the program changes and confusion regarding the retail chain, but the net loss for both is a characteristic that needs to change movig forward, especially with the OEM chain being so week....

  3. cos1000 is offline
    Senior Member
    cos1000's Avatar
    Joined: Mar 2008 Posts: 402
    03-14-2009, 01:53 PM #13
    Quote Originally Posted by homer985 View Post
    You earned the thumbs up!

    One correction though... the retail sub loss was 179K at the end of Q3, which increased by 99K to 278K for the full year.

    Sirius had 128K NET Q4 subs, while XM had (45K) NET for Q4.

    I have a full spread sheet of data that I put together last night.

    --------
    Yeah I see that correction now my 90K loss was just for Q3, while the 179K was for the 9 months ending on 9/30.

    Good question though, keeps an aging mind a little younger....It also made me look at the XM numbers on their filing more closely... It is a little confusing without doing so though because the Sirius filing is for the combined and you need to look at the XM and then extrapolate the Sirius numbers..... your spreadsheet makes sense and things easier for you I am sure....

  4. imromo24 is offline
    Guru
    imromo24's Avatar
    Joined: Aug 2008 Location: Steeler Town, MI Posts: 2,524
    03-14-2009, 02:05 PM #14
    Quote Originally Posted by homer985 View Post
    Before anyone jumps on XM over this -- it is very evident that XM was slammed at retail, because of the merger and the rumor of bankruptcy surrounding the combined company. There was very limited marketing in the quarter to boot.


    --------
    They also got the shaft on the channel merge...according to many people...was there a churn number for XM?

    Yes, being the subsidiary that was potentially being lobbed off, it was tough for me to go with the XMP3, but its a great radio and i took the chance.

  5. homer985 is offline
    Senior Member
    homer985's Avatar
    Joined: Mar 2008 Posts: 485
    03-14-2009, 02:05 PM #15
    Quote Originally Posted by cos1000 View Post
    I guess this is to be expected with all the program changes and confusion regarding the retail chain, but the net loss for both is a characteristic that needs to change movig forward, especially with the OEM chain being so week....
    That's the other point I was going to make, thanks for bringing it up... with the changes in programming -- I wonder if this change was more impactful than most realized? In looking at retail outlets, it sure seemed like Sirius programming took over XM programming -- even though it was more of an even split between the two. Perhaps retail buyers figured, why get XM when they can just get Sirius and get the same thing? As the other poster noted, Sirius is the first one in the name...

    Looking at churn -- the 9 month churn for XM was 2.69%, while the 12 month was 2.76%. Q4 was at 2.83%.

    Comparatively speaking, Sirius was 2.73%, while the 12 month was 2.78%. Q4 was at 2.89%.



    ----------

  6. Beach Gambler is offline
    Senior Member
    Beach Gambler's Avatar
    Joined: Mar 2009 Location: On a cushy beach chair! Posts: 383
    03-14-2009, 02:18 PM #16
    With an S.C. (sand count) of just over 3.8 billiion under the SatCov (beach umbrella) which covers 2.9 billions of the S.C.s leaves me to believe that the remaining unprotected S.C.s from the abundentent amount of U.V. P.S.I. is just under 1 billiion. Based on this analysis I am ordering another Rum and Coke and hoping for a strong SIRI week.
    Nice weekend to all.

  7. cos1000 is offline
    Senior Member
    cos1000's Avatar
    Joined: Mar 2008 Posts: 402
    03-14-2009, 02:34 PM #17
    Homer I agree with the churn being relatively even.... Even from your balance sheet summary above you can see how Revenue Generators such as B of B, that only shows up in ARPU and COH are making understanding performance that matters difficult... In your example above, XM has more COH, and lost subscribers in the quarter.

    Better metrics based on the different business lines would make understanding which are the better performing strategies going forward.... The Retail vs OEM is OK for now, but when Internet, iPhone apps and other Handheld devices become more prominant sources of generating revenue... using ARPU seems meaningless...

    I also think their use of self pay churn vs all in is confusing and needs to be cleaned up to become more transparent to the investor...

  8. asm610 is offline
    Senior Member
    asm610's Avatar
    Joined: Feb 2009 Location: NC Posts: 264
    03-14-2009, 03:26 PM #18
    Quote Originally Posted by cos1000 View Post
    Homer,

    XM Net subs were Sep 30, 08 : 9.896M and at Dec 31,08 was 9.851M for a net loss of 45K subs. Also they lost a significant portion of the Combined Retail Sub loss going from a loss of 90K as of Sept 30,08 to a loss of 278K as of Dec 31,08 for a net loss in Q4 of 188K..... Their declining Retail accounted for the overal loss of subs, that couldn't be picked up by their gains in OEM subs..... that's my take anyways......
    Good job cos 1000! I just came back in to post that....I see was a bit late to the party!

  9. asm610 is offline
    Senior Member
    asm610's Avatar
    Joined: Feb 2009 Location: NC Posts: 264
    03-14-2009, 03:28 PM #19
    Quote Originally Posted by imromo24 View Post
    They also got the shaft on the channel merge...according to many people...was there a churn number for XM?

    Yes, being the subsidiary that was potentially being lobbed off, it was tough for me to go with the XMP3, but its a great radio and i took the chance.
    I agree about the XMP3....I have one myself!

  10. Beach Gambler is offline
    Senior Member
    Beach Gambler's Avatar
    Joined: Mar 2009 Location: On a cushy beach chair! Posts: 383
    03-14-2009, 04:23 PM #20
    Does anyone know how to get the picture to upload, I put in under edit picture but it always says upload failed it is a small (within guidelines) pic.....

Page 2 of 3 123