to me as long as their is no delisting worries there will not be an rs, i think they can get over a dollar with this current float and hold, thsen its a matter of building that fcf for 3 years and then they can start to buy back stock. If they were to do a r/s i dont see why anything over 10:1 would be needed and honestly a 5:1 would be enough to reduce the float. Time will tell.
wirestripper the att servicde sucks, 20 channels for 10 bucks a month>? no satrad lover is going to bother with that. The apple one will be way diff as you will be able to get stern and everything else for 2.99 a month. I think the iphone app will make a huge impact.
They cannot do a share buyback. There are convenants in some of the debt issues that prevent share buybacks before repurchasing the debt.Originally Posted by mogami
Trppin... what do you believe is an appropriate EV for this company? Keep in mind that the highest combined EV for these companies ever was about $18BB. And that was when there was tremendous growth in both companies, coupled with a booming economy.
The current EV is approximately $3.88BB. Do you believe it will ever get to $18BB again some day? How soon? Well if you think that it can reach that level someday -- then that would be a PPS of ONLY $2.36.
If it takes a couple years to reach that level of EV someday... then that is going to be a LONG and SLOW climb from $0.14 to just $2.36. All the while the stock will continue to be non-marginable and most major institutions won't be able to touch it.
That is the problem with such a high fully-diluted sharecount.
IMHO, an EV near $10BB may be doable in the next 12 months, provided the economy turns around, along with the auto OEM's. That's a PPS of just $1.03, with this sharecount.
-------
I have heard of funds buying shares and turning them in to the company for a set price down the road.
This would take a boat load of shares off the market, by someone else besides the company.
I think this would be possible!
The difference is it is more then 20 channels.
They could be looking at expanding their internet site to offer all current stations and more.
There is no bandwidth limitation on internet!
They need to spend every extra dollar on marketing and improving software, and intergrating the two companies, etc....
Or buy back debt. If they bought back one share, Id be LIVIDLY ANGRY. Dumb idea to buy back shares. Its not their "direction" anyway. If anythign they will look to sell MORE SHARES. LOL
I agree. It would be a disaster if they do it too soon. They need to do it as a "last resort".mogami: Liberty's 40% is not calcualted until they decide to convert, meaning that Sirius can do what ever they want to the outstanding shares, because it will not change anything. Liberty will still get exactly 40% when converted.
Regardless, I don't think they can buy back shares because of debt covenants, so the discussion about buy backs is mute.
As I said before, I think the RS will be done, but not until the company and the economy is improving. Anything before that will be a disaster and I will sell.
assuming the numbers hold up and we can show fcf i think with time it can get over a dollar and probably float around the .75-1.50 range. Wont be over night but hopefully by end of year we could break through a dollar and manage to hold close enough to it so that we either stay above or break through a dollar now and then and possibly float from .75-1.50, assuming bk stays of the way and siri continues to trim costs and increase revenue. I think we could get above 18 million because both of these companies are stronger together then they were separate. How soon will that happen? not this year i don't think. What we do need to happen this year is at least get an ev of 10-11 billion and then we can avoid delisting and buy the time needed to build cash and be ready to buyback stock when debt is out of the way. this could take 3 years or it could take 10, but that is better than a r/s that will make it close to impossible for longs which includes mel to make their money back unless for a split second giant speculative bubble. I'm not worried about big institutions not being able buy siri, obviously we still have some who are buying even at this price, and i don't think we need them. What siri needs is to become a fcf company, focus on that, as long as the stock can avoid delisting then they can ignore the stock price focus on reigning in costs and increasing revenue.
Last edited by trippingthespeculatingpos; 03-08-2009 at 02:14 PM.
another thing the 18 billion ev was when both companies were in the red yeah they were growing big time but they werent making money. Assuming we become a producer of cash rather than a user of cash that should change the story big time.
Reply With Quote