What are the chances we can AVOID a R/S??

[Newman]

mogami: Liberty's 40% is not calcualted until they decide to convert, meaning that Sirius can do what ever they want to the outstanding shares, because it will not change anything. Liberty will still get exactly 40% when converted.

Regardless, I don't think they can buy back shares because of debt covenants, so the discussion about buy backs is mute.

As I said before, I think the RS will be done, but not until the company and the economy is improving. Anything before that will be a disaster and I will sell.

[Paratrooper_Rick]

While I'm thinking about it - both Malone / Mel are pretty slick -

How's this for a twist:

Mel/Malone work something out where MALONE/LIBERTY & SIRI do a buyback - or it is all calculated in a way that the 40% actually doesn't change...

(putting on body armor - expecting fallout from this post)

Before you say it - yes - there is the question - what the hell would malone stand to gain from that option......

MHO - as long as he still has a 40% stake along with his 2 board seats.... I think he'd still be content with a buyback....

as far as paying off debt before buying shares - I get your point - I also think it can be argued that until they position themselves to increase the SP and start marketing campaigns... hopefully with the new iphone app.... they won't get that much needed cash to PAY the deferred debt...

Ok... let the stoning begin......

[mogami]

Hi, buying just 10% of current float at fridays closing price .145 would cost 51 million dollars. Assuming a 10 percent reduction in float equals a 10 percent increase in SP we would go to .1595
I'd rather pay off 50 million in debt and reduce interest payments.

[winagain35]

I think druid just hit on another point I missed originally - but I'll make it here - regardless of any ONE thing - we all know that it will take a combination of things falling in place to pull SIRI ahead.

Example: Dealing with the B/K issue - DONE
Example: Dealing with the dilution - DONE (thanks for the explanation Homer)
Example: Dealing with the debt for 09 - Essentially done/delayed

I think even a moderate buyback at the current SP - and AVOIDANCE of a R/S (he needs to use PR and clearly state this - which he hinted at when he said it would only be used to avoid delisting - which may not be necessary if they go with the market cap versus $1 SP)

Couple the above with even a minor marketing campaign - (would appreciate input on guesses for that cost here) and you've got a recipe for substantial improvements.

Again - I refer back to the mystery of the COH. The past few weeks show us that MEL is clearly multitasking (I hate the word - but it applies) and he appears to be going at this from many angles at once...

His biggest downfall IMHO is the lack of communication with investors... of course that also MAY have been for a reason - ie. to prevent the main media adversaries from having time to react to any good news.

First of all. Stock buybacks are likely prohibited under the convenants of some of the remaining debt issues the company faces in December and especially in 2014 when the next major round of converts come due.
Second - the more cash they have on hand right now the better. There is an excellent chance that this year will NOT be as positive on the balance sheet as we'd all hoped. While I believe we won't lose subs for the year, there's a good chance we'll lose subs for Q1 and despite the cost savings and synergies the merger has provided, the company will likely have to burn through some cash operationally for the next year until the economy improves. The fact is they cannot afford to buy back shares at this time.

As for the R/S - it's inevitable and should probably be done sooner rather than later. If it's coupled with some positive news with the next CC on the 17th then I think that's the time to do it. There are WAY too many shares out there right now and this stock is simply a ball of yarn for the MMs to manipulate. As homer has suggested the market cap is already WAY undervalued - with the company's finances back in good graces it won't go lower. Also - with a stock price above five bucks - we're once again marginable, that means more buyers. The options game will be back in play -more buyers! And yes, there will probably be more retail short sellers - which ultimately means more buyers. The reason the stock price is so low is NOT because of a huge short interest... It's because there aren't enough buyers and its easy for the big money interest to move up and down at will. Reducing the float changes playing field.

[otone]

One word. Ericsson. Years back they were a penny stock that had gotten pummeled all the way from ~11.00. I had had enough and sold out (dumbass move... should have been buying as much as I could). Some months later, once the mobile phone market turned around, they coupled a reverse split with improved performance by the company. It was that experience with Ericsson that gave me the intestinal fortitude to gut it out with this stock.

If SiriusXM has begun to turn itself around and they feel they are looking good going forward, there is no reason not to do a reverse split. Do it right before a great earnings release. jmho

[Hopeful]

Does anyone think Mel will stick to his word? "The R/S will only be used to meet listing requirements?"

How far along is NAS in the process of switching from 1 PPS to 50 mil market cap? If they do that, then their would be no reason for an R/S, according to Mel's words...

[RickF]

I think we are all a bit deluded. After thinking about it, I think this would be a great thing right now with the stock where it is. For $50 million, they could take 350 million shares out of the float. That is a MASSIVE number of shares for a small amount of money to this company. The main issue would be if they even CAN buy back shares because of the covenants in their debt agreements. I just don't think it is possible at this point.

Good Morning Campers!!

I am wondering ... rather than a RS ... if they were able to buy back say 350mil shares, would this make the sp pop to beyond the $1 pps to avoid the neccessity to do a RS? How many shares would they need to buy back to accomplish this IF it would??

Also, Why would it be in the companies or Karmazin best interest to have the co buy back shares

[mogami]

Hi, 350 million shares is only 10 percent of float before you add in Liberties 40 percent so SP might go to .16
However as has been pointed out many times Sirius is not allowed to buy back shares.

[Wirestripper]

Unfortunately, I think an RS is needed. BUT NOT YET.

With a float of 4 billion shares and a stock price in the teens, the circumstances lend themselves to manipulation.

They need to wait until they have a consistant string of good news. I could see an RS coming around September if the economy turns around, banks start lending, and people start buying cars. If all of these are not happening yet, a RS will be a disaster for current shareholders.

As far as for HAVING to do a RS, there will be another shareholder meeting this year. They could vote to extend the deadline for the RS. The earliest possible time when SIRI could get delisted currently is around March or May of 2010. (Cant remember exactly). Also, NASDAQ has mentioned that it is considering taking out the minimum $1 stock price requirment and instead sticking with a minimum market cap requirement. I believe the current market cap requirement is $50 million, meaning Sirius stock would have to drop to 0.014 cent per share before they hit that number.

I do not see a share buy back happening in the next 3 years, so that will not prevent a RS.

Just my opinion.

And a interesting opinion it is!

I have been mulling it over, and you could be right.

It could be, that they will maintain the status quo until they achieve some forward momentum. The float reduction does seem to be important at some point, however R/S could be put off and there are other ways to reduce float.

[Wirestripper]

While I'm thinking about it - both Malone / Mel are pretty slick -

How's this for a twist:

Mel/Malone work something out where MALONE/LIBERTY & SIRI do a buyback - or it is all calculated in a way that the 40% actually doesn't change...

(putting on body armor - expecting fallout from this post)

Before you say it - yes - there is the question - what the hell would malone stand to gain from that option......

MHO - as long as he still has a 40% stake along with his 2 board seats.... I think he'd still be content with a buyback....

as far as paying off debt before buying shares - I get your point - I also think it can be argued that until they position themselves to increase the SP and start marketing campaigns... hopefully with the new iphone app.... they won't get that much needed cash to PAY the deferred debt...

Ok... let the stoning begin......

" hopefully with the new iphone app...."


I am having great difficulty understanding any monetary benifit from any deal with Apple for Sirius.

No other vendor has been helped much, even AT&T. Apple strangles them with every deal. The vendor ends up giving it away to gain market share. Apple keeps the profits.

Secondly, XM mobile has been available on most other smart phones and internet capable phones for years. On my phone, I can get 20+ channels for about 9$ per month. I have had that option for many years. Can't recall when exactly they began to offer it.

IMO, any I-phone app will have negligiable impact on the bottom line.