great thread
thanks much for the insights
SIRIUS XM SATELLITE RADIO FORUM
great thread
thanks much for the insights
john
I was just kind of thinking out loud and hoping for a major miracle.
Thanks for the great analyis, very beneficial!
Food for thought... if XM-5 and Sirius-5 go up over the equator -- and BOTH have the ablity to broadcast over both spectrums... then it could be a way for Sirius to save nearly $600MM in future CAPEX. Because they could eventually switch over to a GEO constellation, like XM's, using the two new satellites for coverage. Therefore not have to replace the HEIO satellites which will need to be replaced in the next 3 years. That is a huge savings on CAPEX and boost to FCF.
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Homer, I was thinking the same thing not about the GEO constellation but that when I read the FCC filing before (when we talked about the confusion I had about XM 4 and XM 5) about that they would use Xm5 as a back up to Sirius satellites. Yea BACK UP, I dont know why they put it that way but I called it a partial replacement. That in the end it was the second satellite of a duel use system.
Last edited by john; 03-09-2009 at 10:48 AM.
So your saying these are huge synergies, and takes them one step closer to a "unlilateral broadcast" of both XM and Sirius spectrum?Originally Posted by john
relmor2003, I believe this was ONE reason all the analyst had such a wide difference between the time frames and the amounts of synergies. The satellites are one of, if not the biggest cost to the company. What it does mean is they wont have to waste 2 to 3 billion on extra satellites every 15 years (or as we have seen in less time then 15 years). The interoperable radio will be the last piece of the puzzle to them getting to full synergie. Now of course it will take time for the old radios to get worn out and replaced.
If you recall when people were saying this radio was a waste of time now. I said are you people crazy this radio is not for you it is for the company. This radio is the only way forward for them.
Last edited by john; 03-09-2009 at 12:54 PM.
Yes, but not me. I thought they should have put that radio out on day 1 post merger. According the Mr. hartlieb, they had the technology for YEARS now. This is in fact, one of my points of interest proving XM and Sirius have been working together so to speak for years to combine companies. That radio would have made one of them just go out of business. May the best service win so to speak, if your going to make switching between the companies as easy as turning a nob.
Im getting excited thinking about such a huge savings. Sats are there most expensive cost, and to be able to shave billions is a wonderful move. The radio is VERY important. One of the "must haves" I always felt to even begin to justify the merger. That and no more competing for contracts. Those savings arent even close to be realized yet. They synergies are "just getting started" so to speak. Wait till HOwards contract is over, Oprah, Martha, MLB, NFL, all the sats are up and sending both signals, they lease out their bandwidth, use more video content, get the iphone app going, internet, expansion to other markets...
Ok, IM getting excited. This is the reason I bought the stock a year ago. Finally we can start talking about those reasons coming into fruition, and stop this BK nonesense talk, and the irrelevant R/S talk as well.
Last edited by relmor2003; 03-09-2009 at 12:56 PM.
Hi, The 1 Geo sat currently does the same work as the older 3 orbit sats. (only 2 broadcast at a time)
I was under the impression the next launch was 4th Qtr 2010 with 1 sat being held in reserve because some problem could always occur with existing sat.
Costs will really decrease when all orbiting Sats are replaced by geo sats.
It is also my understanding Geo sats are placed in the higher less crowded (and therefore less dangerous) areas. The others are in low earth orbits where something like 22k pieces of debris are currently being tracked and are hazards to worry about.
relamar, Now I know why you are such a conspiracy theorist. You have got to stop reading so much from Hartlieb. You see logic proves him wrong, because as I discussed before if this radio is the future of the company then they would want to get it out as soon as possible. The problem is it was not, therefore it wasn't. I mean dont you think if they had it already as Hartlieb says it was for years then dont you think they would have put it out before they are.
I dont think he lied about that. In fact, its one of the few points he had to me. Now, I dont trust him either, proving Im not a conspiracy theories for the sake of fun, or believing anything I hear. It does make sense though John, that if a merger was in the works for years prior to the announcement, waiting on this technology inhibits an outside buyer of XM from coming forward, and making it harder for Sirius to buy them. Fighting for contracts and driving up their costs works towards this goal as well, as long as they knew at some point they could renegotiate these contracts, or simply ride them out, never to see those costs again at those high levels. Id say if this were Mels plan, he has executed it sucessfully.
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