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  1. relmor2003 is offline
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    03-06-2009, 02:43 PM #21
    Quote Originally Posted by JohnnyIrishXM View Post
    Wrong Relmor,read it and weep,phase 2 is done!!!!
    What are talking about? Your obviously not following me. Ive said it was done the day it was announced. In fact I said it was "done done" two days ago. Your a bit behind. My common sense argument was the bk was never on the table, as cos1000 and brandon were talking about(Brandona ctually beliving it inevitable). My common sense argument was that the Malone deal was beyond done, and the delay was simply to dot the i's and cross the t's. Malone wanted audited results on q4 before commencing. Your confused.

  2. JohnnyIrishXM is offline
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    03-06-2009, 02:44 PM #22
    my apologies,thought you were bad mouthing Mel,if not mea culpa

  3. relmor2003 is offline
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    03-06-2009, 02:52 PM #23
    Quote Originally Posted by JohnnyIrishXM View Post
    my apologies,thought you were bad mouthing Mel,if not mea culpa
    No your correct, I was bad mouthing Mel. Mel used the scare of BK twice now to keep us off the shares while he consimated his deals. Yes, I am no fan of Mel. I have given him two quarters to give back the money he has stolen from me however. Show me the merger was beneficial to me as a stockholder. Im still waititng to see this. Removing BK and selling 40% of my company does not a friend of Mel make me. I feel he purposefully tanked the stock with MSM help, to allow a cheap buy in, scare investors into agreeing to his demands(R/S, dilution, ownership control transfer to Malone, which I feel they ahve been working on since right after the merger). Etc...
    Mel closing this deal today does not make me a fan of his.
    My comments are for the people thinking this deal wasnt going through. And BK was still on the table, which is horse nonense"did i get that right charlie"? LOL
    Horse radish!!!
    Basically bs.
    LOL

  4. JohnnyIrishXM is offline
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    03-06-2009, 03:00 PM #24
    you have a right to hate Mel if you were into sirius or Xm long ago at $33 or $18..but he did what had to be done according to his revenus and expenses he inherited with merger.I on the other hand liked these companies a long time ago,but couldn't justify buying the stock until i started to see a profit coming.it just so happens that Bk scare allowed me to buy in at 400K shares at .26 cpsa....i'm loving Mel!!!!

  5. relmor2003 is offline
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    03-06-2009, 03:03 PM #25
    Quote Originally Posted by JohnnyIrishXM View Post
    you have a right to hate Mel if you were into sirius or Xm long ago at $33 or $18..but he did what had to be done according to his revenus and expenses he inherited with merger.I on the other hand liked these companies a long time ago,but couldn't justify buying the stock until i started to see a profit coming.it just so happens that Bk scare allowed me to buy in at 400K shares at .26 cpsa....i'm loving Mel!!!!
    Yes, he is a low ball sp dream CEO thats for sure. Good play. Your smart to wait. Hes been good for my average. I like BK scares. They allowed my average to go from 2.34 to .84 cents now. Even lower now, as I just added more shares. I sold out at .13, rebought at .135, but I bought more, and its over .14 now so Im not too mad. Timing sucks, but Ill take it. Trust me, Im not complaining. Haggling over a cent here and there is no important. Any purchases under .15 cents is a good price IMVHO.
    Good play irish.

  6. mogami is offline
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    03-06-2009, 10:19 PM #26

    Crap

    I asked what was going to happen next week and my magic 8-ball said
    ● Reply hazy, try again (next week)

  7. LMaze is offline
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    03-08-2009, 11:57 AM #27
    Rel: I have to read all of your posts and Cos 100's post to get a flavor of the dialog which past between both of you. I have been impressed with all your posts from the day I began following your blogs on the SA site about a year ago.

    As you know From the day that the Malone deal was announced I was generally pleased since I truly believed that the threat of a BK had passed. I also believed that Mel truly wanted to avoid a BK if only to keep his rep intact. I didn't like his scare tactics then and I don't like them now, and I think you were dead on in your analysis of this. However, Right now, in this economy he really pulled off a major coup, eliminating anymore speculation about the near term future of this company. Each of us who posts here now all agree on the long term prospects of this company, but your previous question also still holds true. How do we truly value this company?

    I think that the answer is very complicated because most of the old methods of valuation appear obsolete, especially as it relates to SiriusXM. In a nutshell, I think we must address the following issues, in no particular order which would give us a clearer picture of the valuation of this company and the consequent increase in the share price which is sure to follow.
    1. How much cash does SiriusXM have in the bank?
    2. 4th Quarter earnings?
    3. Churn rate
    4 Actual number of subscribers as of 1/1 09
    5 1st q 2009 projections for subscribers
    6 Ad sales in the last two quarters and projections for the remainder of 2009
    `7 progress of the synergys promised after the merger
    8 The removal of the two burdernsome contracts that they are stuck with, Oprah's 55 million and Martha Stewart's 7million plus. ( I don't think anyway can justify these two deals, these channels have bombed with subscribers.
    Both expire this year.
    9. GM and its future, nuff said (add in Chrysler and to a lesser extent Ford)
    10 THE ECONOMY in general
    11 The marketing direction of this company going forward as it relates to retail subscribers, new products etc.
    12 what's next from the NAB? and that crazy congressman Edward Markay of Mass who wants the FCC to require Sirius to produce a radio that includes a free HD receiver inside.
    13. What's up with the Apple I-PHone application?

    Rel, these are questions that i rattled off from the top of my head, and all of them affect the valuation of this company near term and long term so in the end here's what I see,
    Between now and March 17 a very small increase in the share price overall, say six cents maybe less, depending on other economic news.

    After March 17 another pop we could see 30 cents and then my friend slow growth thereafter, with the R/S coming at the end of the year with a share price of somewhere between 30 and 40 cents ( which grossly undervalues this company but this is the market that we are in.

    Seriously, given the spectrum that we own and its potential applications plus worldwide expension via the internet, our hardware and content providers, I would say right now the stock should be way north of one dollar, and despite all of the B/S that has gone on with this company we are GROWING! If that doesn't beat all...

    One other thing, I'm continuing to buy and will buy more tomorrow, probably 30,000 shares. My question to you is all my shares are held in Street name, is it possible to buy a "penny stock" and obtain your original shares?

    I'm in for the very long term, I truly believe that any investor contemplating an investment in Sirius must plan for a 60 month time horizon to see significant gains, notwithstanding short term gains that can be made by day trading as you do. Just trade your account and keep some I can't see how we can lose. I never have and never will.

    The weather here in Stratton, Vermont is terrible, foggy and warm the snow is being eaten by the fog, the base is eroding, making it tough to snowboard. Was out a little this AM going home to New Jersey now. The best to you all , always.

  8. trippingthespeculatingpos is offline
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    03-08-2009, 12:06 PM #28
    "8 The removal of the two burdernsome contracts that they are stuck with, Oprah's 55 million and Martha Stewart's 7million plus. ( I don't think anyway can justify these two deals, these channels have bombed with subscribers."

    they renewed oprahs contract, it looks good so far, its gonna be heavily focused on her book club which has over 2 million members, im hoping to see her bring alot of them over. Hopefully they have reworked it to pay less but i doubt it, im sure they got her to agree to do more advertising for it and to push it harder on her show. I still think the oprah deal can be a good one if they make her get off her fat ass and work for her money.

  9. relmor2003 is offline
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    03-08-2009, 12:07 PM #29
    Quote Originally Posted by LMaze View Post
    Rel: I have to read all of your posts and Cos 100's post to get a flavor of the dialog which past between both of you. I have been impressed with all your posts from the day I began following your blogs on the SA site about a year ago.

    As you know From the day that the Malone deal was announced I was generally pleased since I truly believed that the threat of a BK had passed. I also believed that Mel truly wanted to avoid a BK if only to keep his rep intact. I didn't like his scare tactics then and I don't like them now, and I think you were dead on in your analysis of this. However, Right now, in this economy he really pulled off a major coup, eliminating anymore speculation about the near term future of this company. Each of us who posts here now all agree on the long term prospects of this company, but your previous question also still holds true. How do we truly value this company?

    I think that the answer is very complicated because most of the old methods of valuation appear obsolete, especially as it relates to SiriusXM. In a nutshell, I think we must address the following issues, in no particular order which would give us a clearer picture of the valuation of this company and the consequent increase in the share price which is sure to follow.
    1. How much cash does SiriusXM have in the bank?
    2. 4th Quarter earnings?
    3. Churn rate
    4 Actual number of subscribers as of 1/1 09
    5 1st q 2009 projections for subscribers
    6 Ad sales in the last two quarters and projections for the remainder of 2009
    `7 progress of the synergys promised after the merger
    8 The removal of the two burdernsome contracts that they are stuck with, Oprah's 55 million and Martha Stewart's 7million plus. ( I don't think anyway can justify these two deals, these channels have bombed with subscribers.
    Both expire this year.
    9. GM and its future, nuff said (add in Chrysler and to a lesser extent Ford)
    10 THE ECONOMY in general
    11 The marketing direction of this company going forward as it relates to retail subscribers, new products etc.
    12 what's next from the NAB? and that crazy congressman Edward Markay of Mass who wants the FCC to require Sirius to produce a radio that includes a free HD receiver inside.
    13. What's up with the Apple I-PHone application?

    Rel, these are questions that i rattled off from the top of my head, and all of them affect the valuation of this company near term and long term so in the end here's what I see,
    Between now and March 17 a very small increase in the share price overall, say six cents maybe less, depending on other economic news.

    After March 17 another pop we could see 30 cents and then my friend slow growth thereafter, with the R/S coming at the end of the year with a share price of somewhere between 30 and 40 cents ( which grossly undervalues this company but this is the market that we are in.

    Seriously, given the spectrum that we own and its potential applications plus worldwide expension via the internet, our hardware and content providers, I would say right now the stock should be way north of one dollar, and despite all of the B/S that has gone on with this company we are GROWING! If that doesn't beat all...

    One other thing, I'm continuing to buy and will buy more tomorrow, probably 30,000 shares. My question to you is all my shares are held in Street name, is it possible to buy a "penny stock" and obtain your original shares?

    I'm in for the very long term, I truly believe that any investor contemplating an investment in Sirius must plan for a 60 month time horizon to see significant gains, notwithstanding short term gains that can be made by day trading as you do. Just trade your account and keep some I can't see how we can lose. I never have and never will.

    The weather here in Stratton, Vermont is terrible, foggy and warm the snow is being eaten by the fog, the base is eroding, making it tough to snowboard. Was out a little this AM going home to New Jersey now. The best to you all , always.
    I had in the past turned down the idea to receive my shares in physical form. As you can see, this stock is very risky to own, and owning shares in physical form removes all fast liquidity options an investor has. This might be changing. As the need to move fast with this stock is changing slowly now over time from here on out. If you have a cash only account, your broker is not allowed to use your shares to lend out anyway, that would be illegal. If you are on a margin account, then they can do this. There are some who think if you put a high sell order in that would never be reached, say you sell you shares for $5, they must hold them in case this trade executes. I have my serious doubts as to the validity of this scenario, and its effectiveness. IN the case of the R/S, you would need to send your shares back in anyway for redistribution, I think. I dont see how you could receive shares in physical form, and not have to return some upon a R/S, or all of them for "redistribution". Your going to need to talk to your broker about the specifics of that. I feel a R/S is inevitable, but not at this time. I feel Malone will not execute his shares to common at this time. So this ties up billions of shares from ever entering the market. A lot of insitutions have been buying shares, pulling more shares out of the market. Brandon's articles, change of presidential power, and increased scrutiny in the dealing of Wall Street may be making the business of naked short selling harder to perform. ALl these things bode well for our abilities to achieve "true value". I would buy this stock under .20 cents with no hesitation. As it approaches .35 cents and beyond, major pull backs might still be possible, so I would advice caution further out from .30 cents.
    I state my true value of this company right now is .70 cents a shares, thats assuming Mel's guidance was accurate.
    Last edited by relmor2003; 03-08-2009 at 12:09 PM.

  10. Far Away is offline
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    03-08-2009, 12:33 PM #30
    Relmor, as you know and have mentioned before that trading price may be very different from the true value of the company.

    The key is the sentiment and the future guidance.

    The trading price may be much higher or lower from the target price put by analysts or the true value of the company.