Wrong on negative sub growth in 2009 - get your facts right first !
-The overall churn from 19.5 million subs would be about 5.1 million for the year with an all-in-churn of 2.2 %
- Using 9.1 million with a penetration rate of 55% (Sirius claiming 60% possible in 2009) = 5 million new subs.
- Let's say on the low side they add 300,000 subs per quarter at retail, that is 1.2 million retail adds. This is a gross figure - lost retail subs in the all-in-churn#.
19.1 start of 2009 +5 million OEM + 1.2 Milion Retail - 5.1 Million All-In Churn = 20.2 by the end of 2009.
You cannot take the OEM take rate and then reduce by another 50% when this is already in the All-in-Churn #'s Sirius has been reporting for many quarters. Also, with the Howard Stern effect faded, you also do not have all the XM subs quitting and going to Sirius. In addition, the service has alot more offerings and better price points to keep subs with lower affordabilty. I do not believe that churn will get any worse than it has been in the past or at least the things I mentioned will negate the poor economic conditions that may have some quit the service. And then we have the IPOD app that is coming, which could change everything.
you need to think twice before you publish something that may be way, way off base. I think you have your facts screwed up and you seem to always bounce from one extreme to the other with bold statements that are not always backed up with all the most accurate facts. I think your off big on this one and you need to review where you are getting your numbers !