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  1. homer985 is offline
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    03-03-2009, 09:32 PM #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Hopeful View Post
    Investors who failed to sell shares in several reverse splits in just the past few months have seen their holdings get hit by 60% or more in no time, despite the overall market strength.
    Again, what is getting ignored here is the fact that Sirius is already priced for bankrupcty and looked upon as damaged goods. Does anyone really believe that the Market will value Sirius for LESS than its current BK price AFTER they restructure remaining 2009 debt? If so, then you really shouldn't be in this issue.

    While I'm not guaranteeing it won't drop -- I understand valuations and see this priced for bankruptcy. If you remove that prospect, then this stock is undervalued. It would be insane for the market to drop the value to even lower levels at that point -- and I could all but guarantee that someone will buy it up.

    That quote from above where they talk about a 60% drop??? Sirius is worth $500MM... a 60% would put it at $200MM. Really???? Think about that for a moment...


    Yes, I think a RS is inevitable and needed - the timing is the key. I now believe the best time is after the 2009 maturities have been completely restructured. 6.3BB shares is too many for a company with $3BB in revenue. At most, the price could maybe touch $2 someday -- and that is under the most ideal of conditions and changes in economy, IMHO. Plus with the large amounts of outstanding shares -- it makes the stock even easier to be manipulated. I believe that there is such a thing as too much liquidity in outstanding shares. You reduce the supply, the demand is going to increase.


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  2. Hopeful is offline
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    03-03-2009, 09:37 PM #12
    Thanks for your insight Homer.

  3. xitvp is offline
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    03-03-2009, 10:57 PM #13
    Quote Originally Posted by homer985 View Post
    Again, what is getting ignored here is the fact that Sirius is already priced for bankrupcty and looked upon as damaged goods. Does anyone really believe that the Market will value Sirius for LESS than its current BK price AFTER they restructure remaining 2009 debt? If so, then you really shouldn't be in this issue.

    While I'm not guaranteeing it won't drop -- I understand valuations and see this priced for bankruptcy. If you remove that prospect, then this stock is undervalued. It would be insane for the market to drop the value to even lower levels at that point -- and I could all but guarantee that someone will buy it up.

    That quote from above where they talk about a 60% drop??? Sirius is worth $500MM... a 60% would put it at $200MM. Really???? Think about that for a moment...


    Yes, I think a RS is inevitable and needed - the timing is the key. I now believe the best time is after the 2009 maturities have been completely restructured. 6.3BB shares is too many for a company with $3BB in revenue. At most, the price could maybe touch $2 someday -- and that is under the most ideal of conditions and changes in economy, IMHO. Plus with the large amounts of outstanding shares -- it makes the stock even easier to be manipulated. I believe that there is such a thing as too much liquidity in outstanding shares. You reduce the supply, the demand is going to increase.


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    Homer,

    Do you or anyone on here know for sure the rule of insider buying?

    I am wondering why we have not seen anyone in the company buying shares in such a long while.

  4. Siriusowner is offline
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    03-03-2009, 11:27 PM #14
    There's no rules for an insider buying shares of his own company in the open market.

    There is only one reason insiders will buy shares of his own company in the open market: They think the price will rise.

    So, what do you think now ?

    BTW, the lack of insider buying may be telling us that there is still some downside.
    Last edited by Siriusowner; 03-03-2009 at 11:34 PM.

  5. homer985 is offline
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    03-03-2009, 11:40 PM #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Siriusowner View Post
    There's no rules for an insider buying shares of his own company in the open market.

    There is only one reason insiders will buy shares of his own company in the open market: They think the price will rise.

    So, what do you think now ?

    BTW, the lack of insider buying may be telling us that there is still some downside.
    Both Sirius and XM had their own policies (given to them by their lawyers) which established windows that they can purchase and/or sell stock and options. These windows are typically up to a few weeks before and shortly after earnings announcements -- as well as other announcements that certain management may be privy to. Karmazin has discussed being locked out of purchases in the past (after the fact) due to the fact that they were in silence period.

    There is no way to know if management is in such a blackout period -- except that they are 2 weeks away from earnings now.

    Besides, I don't think anyone in their right mind would put money into this stock market... I don't care what the stock is. This just isn't a time to be buying stocks.


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  6. Siriusowner is offline
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    03-03-2009, 11:49 PM #16
    There maybe specific rules to the company but what I meant was that there are no SEC rules to insiders buying in the open market. Only if there's abuse of course...

    Why would they have those policies ? Seems to me that they work against the best interests of the company, specially if those policies are not SEC enforced. I can't find an explanation in my book.
    Last edited by Siriusowner; 03-03-2009 at 11:55 PM.

  7. homer985 is offline
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    03-04-2009, 10:20 AM #17
    Restrictive trading periods are more common than most realize... here's an example at Sun Micro:

    "In addition, all Sun Vice Presidents and employees who have or may have access to or involvement in compiling Sun's financial results are prohibited from trading during a quarterly restricted trading period running from the first day of the last month of each fiscal quarter until the second trading day after Sun's public disclosure of results for that quarter. An employee's failure to comply with Sun's Stock Trading and Market Communications Policy may be grounds for disciplinary action, including termination of employment."
    http://www.sun.com/company/cgov/stocktrading.jsp


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  8. RickF is offline
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    03-04-2009, 10:50 AM #18
    Quote Originally Posted by homer985 View Post

    Sorry, I disagree. Companies that drop after a RS were overvalued to begin with. A company that is lucky enough to stave off bankruptcy -- and is priced for that BK -- is likely NOT overvalued. IMHO.
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    Good Morning Campers!!

    Homer, I have seen the phrase "priced for that BK" more than a few times through the threads but ..... ok, this may be a dumb question, but ..... is it just an assumption that it is priced with BK in mind? How do we know that it is "priced for BK" ???? Believe me .... I HOPE this is the reason it is so low because I feel like Siri is making progress but not out of the shitter yet!

    Still learning!!

    Welcome to the newer members!!!

    ok - just re-read my post - it sounds really stupid! Of course the market is concerned about BK but with the $$$ injection I would have thought that the sp would have risen more than it has considering the BK is less likely. So, shouldn't the BK consideration be putting less pressure on the sp???
    Last edited by RickF; 03-04-2009 at 11:10 AM.

  9. bananaz is offline
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    03-04-2009, 01:52 PM #19
    Homer, I think the R/S would be a good thing if timed right and should be done. I think that the bulk of the opponents to a R/S believe it is bad because it is looked upon as a desperation move to prop up a plunging share price.

    There are alot of opponents to the R/S, especially on the Seeking Alpha boards and I started this thread hoping to start a rational discussion as there seems to be alot of emotional opposition to it.

    You, Brandon , John and others have all given a lot good information for all of us. Thank you!

    Quote Originally Posted by homer985 View Post
    bananaz, when you say a reverse split makes it look like it's "damaged goods" -----------

  10. xitvp is offline
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    03-04-2009, 05:07 PM #20
    Quote Originally Posted by homer985 View Post
    Restrictive trading periods are more common than most realize... here's an example at Sun Micro:

    "In addition, all Sun Vice Presidents and employees who have or may have access to or involvement in compiling Sun's financial results are prohibited from trading during a quarterly restricted trading period running from the first day of the last month of each fiscal quarter until the second trading day after Sun's public disclosure of results for that quarter. An employee's failure to comply with Sun's Stock Trading and Market Communications Policy may be grounds for disciplinary action, including termination of employment."
    http://www.sun.com/company/cgov/stocktrading.jsp


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    Thanks Homer and SO.......Good info.

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