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Thread: 4Q results

  1. #1
    Dustyoden is offline
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    4Q results

    I have been hoping for strong 4Q results but the more I am thinking about it I feel they are not going to be so hot. Here's why. If the 4Q was positive and Sirius XM had some extra COH why would they need $250 mil right away from Liberty? A little extra COH should have allowed them to at least take out a smaller loan for Feb debt. $250 mil implies to me that they burnt up available COH from before and didn't get 4Q numbers shareholders are hoping for.

    Hope I am wrong. Thoughts?

  2. #2
    doobz26 is offline
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    And in order to bypass the shareholder vote to allow Malone to get 40% of the share count they had to plead that they were in financial distress... and any delay (to get shareholder approval) could jeopardize the business or whatever. So basically they are saying they couldn't pay the bill... which can't be good. I predict: "Sirius narrows loss, growth declining." Churn will probably be up some. and the rate of new adds will probably be down some. both mostly due to the economy (auto sales mostly) taking a dump. The media will eat that up saying the business model is failing (even though we will be another step closer to profitability) .. .who wants to pay for radio.. bla bla bla... etc etc. etc. So don't get your hopes up.

  3. #3
    imromo24 is offline
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    I don't think it will be a foreteller of what is to come, but i think it will look bad and be a result of the bad buzz from the channel merger The bad buzz about BK could affect Q1 too. We need a miracle that hasn't been thought of. I am very depressed. with fingers crossed. 2-23 ichanged my tune, hoping 3 month free offers helped churn and some other articles that came out after this post
    Last edited by imromo24; 02-23-2009 at 09:28 PM.

  4. #4
    trippingthespeculatingpos is offline
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    there is no way of knowing till the number's come out, you have to understand the credit market's are frozen, coh is so important right now especially if the credit markets dont improve, when you are a company who has yet to gain fcf you need every bit of coh you can get, they could of had it but spending it is to risky, i think what mel did was insure his company will have all it needs to meet debt obligation's in the future as well as this one, okay so they pay coh for feb but then what aboutmay and dec? he needed a plan to cover all debt not just feb. I think peopleare way too critical of this deal, i think it was brilliant, we have a company backing us up right now that is actually doing better in these tufftimes then ur avg company, dtv is 29.99 a month, where im at in san antonio most people have time warner and pay over a 100 for the same service, people are switching voer to direct tv in droves. The fact that they are stepping up to keep this company afloat in a time where we will see mass bk's of company's, do you think any1 is going to bail out clear channel?

  5. #5
    trippingthespeculatingpos is offline
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    http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/St...2&frt=2#407844
    check out this topic on the yahoo baords, shows all of siri's asset's as of q3.

  6. #6
    imromo24 is offline
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    Trippin' your right, we have to assume right now that the numbers are good because we got financing, Malone had to have been given a sneak peak. Back to happy! (but still nervous, I feel used and abused over the last 2 years **me)

    And all i really want is a surprise or my head will explode

  7. #7
    Dustyoden is offline
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    Tripp I have been thinking about the COH situation a lot and to put a positive spin on it perhaps the COH from 3Q plus (assuming good numbers for 4Q) 4Q, synergies, Liberty's first part of the loan money, etc., maybe the loan that Sirius XM would need to cover sept and Dec. is much more attainable from the banks at a good rate. Then Liberty's second portion of the loan could be terminated.

    I have the understanding that Liberty's second loan can very well be terminated. I know not easily and I do not pretend to understand the entire 8-K but I have not had any solid evidence of the contrary.

    Tripp, you are saying the loan is much better than people give it credit for and I agree to an extent. It 100% without a doubt protects Sirius XM from BK for a long while and prob for good. However, that 12.5 mil pref shares is very high. It doesn't matter if Malone converts to common and dilutes (which I see NO reason for him to do). Malones loan still protects the common shareholder from BK and that was the biggest issue at hand, NOT how high the stock would jump after the announcement.

    http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/20...s-last-chance/

    This article illustrates my thoughts on finding an alternative deal and why I believe the Liberty loan (along with Tripp) was an AMAZING deal done by Mel and company. If Sirius finds another deal before the second Liberty loan is due up then Sirius makes out great and Liberty makes A LOT of money in the short term. If new financing cannot get done Sirius is still NOT BK, they give up a lot in the process but they continue on and since there are no other loans available its the best option. Liberty obviously stands to make even more money on the second part. It seems to me to be a Win-Win for both companies regardless if new financing is found. Its simply a question of if Sirius wins only by ruling out BK or if Sirius wins huge and gets a new loan. Liberty wins big monetarily on the first loan and possibly wins huge on the second loan and becomes a majority owner in 3 plus years.

  8. #8
    bananaz is offline
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    I agree with tripping and Dusty. Mel did what, on the surface, looks like a not so good a deal but, considering the market conditions, did what he had to to insure the survival of Sirius. In a normal market, the bond refinancings would have been no big deal. The big SIRI concern right now is refinancing hurdles. Malone seems to have helped with that. They seem to have the cash flow to sustain themselves and the profitability is moving in the right direction. As long as they didn't lose subscribers in the 4Q, they are doing OK right now.

    based on size of the enterprise, I'll bet GM wishes that they had the P/L and cash flows of Sirius right now!

  9. #9
    sxminvestor is offline
    Does Sirius have a waiver that they do not have to report earnings ? This is getting ridiculous now.

    Does anyone know the latest they have to report ?

  10. #10
    Hughes is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by sxminvestor View Post
    Does Sirius have a waiver that they do not have to report earnings ? This is getting ridiculous now.

    Does anyone know the latest they have to report ?
    I'm starting to think that all this silence is because they are working on something (better financing perhaps?) and want to get that done before the call. Of course, I'm just hoping for the best.

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