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Thread: Given the dilution and knowin the market cap, what's a reasonable price target

  1. #1
    m4svt is offline
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    Given the dilution and knowin the market cap, what's a reasonable price target

    for sirius? assuming there is no more dilution, no split, and we take care of all this year's debt. Is $3.00 obtainable given the 6b shares?

  2. #2
    justsomeguy is offline
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    Wow 18bil market cap that maybe a stretch...you know that would give Malone 7.2bil worth of shares for his $530mm loan to sirius now that is a smart man. I think in current market with good #'s we could reach 6 bil market cap now if Malne has taken his shares at that point you are looking at around $1.00 stock price in next 12months.

  3. #3
    m4svt is offline
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    Lol, i know it's quite a stretch, it would make my wallet very happy though... I think the market cap of both XMSR and SIRI was around 9b or so when they announced the merger in '07. How things have changed...

  4. #4
    justsomeguy is offline
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    Yeah stupid me, I started investing at that time now I only dream of that kind of value.

  5. #5
    m4svt is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by justsomeguy View Post
    Yeah stupid me, I started investing at that time now I only dream of that kind of value.
    Don't feel bad, I've been investin in SIRI since, '04, I've lost over $15k in SIRI options over the years.

  6. #6
    justsomeguy is offline
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    Well lets hope this is the start of a turn around...With Malone and fresh money on board I hope the dilution is over.

  7. #7
    Newman is offline
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    You guys are missing one very important peice of information: Malone was not given any common stock. He was given Perferred shares, which he can convert into common stock if he chooses to. That means that the float is still technically something like 3.5 billion shares. It is also not gaurenteed that Malone will get the full 2.5 billion shares. He gets 40% of the shares issued at the time he decides to convert. If Sirius does another debt-for-equity swap, Malone's number of potential shares recieved would go up. If Sirius buys back shares, then Malone's potential shares go down.

    Given the current price and shares outstanding, we still only have a market cap around 350 million. I honestly think we should be trading around a market cap of 1-1.5 billion until the rest of the 2009 debt is taken care of. (That would indicate a potential pps of 0.50-0.75)

  8. #8
    m4svt is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Newman View Post
    You guys are missing one very important peice of information: Malone was not given any common stock. He was given Perferred shares, which he can convert into common stock if he chooses to. That means that the float is still technically something like 3.5 billion shares. It is also not gaurenteed that Malone will get the full 2.5 billion shares. He gets 40% of the shares issued at the time he decides to convert. If Sirius does another debt-for-equity swap, Malone's number of potential shares recieved would go up. If Sirius buys back shares, then Malone's potential shares go down.

    Given the current price and shares outstanding, we still only have a market cap around 350 million. I honestly think we should be trading around a market cap of 1-1.5 billion until the rest of the 2009 debt is taken care of. (That would indicate a potential pps of 0.50-0.75)
    thanks for chiming in.

  9. #9
    SteveSirius is offline
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    To get the most benefit from his investment in Sirius XM, I would think Malone would not want to sell the common shares he will get if he converts the preferred shares he is being granted, for these reasons:

    1. The higher the stock price, the more security Sirius XM has as a company if they ever want to issue additional shares. It would seem to be in Malone's best interest at this point to see Sirius XM succeed and prosper.

    2. It does not appear that Malone needs the money immediately and, as it seems he has faith in the future of Sirius XM, I am sure he thinks the stock price will go up. The higher the stock price, the more money he will get if and when he decides to sell.

    3. According to today's 8-k, Malone is precluded from owning more than 49.9% of the common shares of Sirius XM for three years. So, if he ever has any idea of taking over control, he has to either own over 50% of the outstanding shares or, combining his shares with shares of holders who agree with him, must own a large percentage of the outstanding shares. So, being a very smart business man, for reasons of potential "control", I don't see him selling his shares soon because they are at such a low price. He would only have to buy them back later at a higher price, and buying a large quantity in a short period might drive the price up.

    3. His selling soon would send the wrong message to investors as to his faith in the company.

    4. His selling soon would send the wrong message to potential subscribers who might be thinking of taking long-term subscriptions. If he does not have faith in the long-term existence of Sirius XM (and runs away from investing in it), why should they risk their money with a long-term subscription?

    So, whatever his long-term intentions for his participation and investment, I would think he would want to protect his investment and maximize its potential.

    I think Malone will hold his shares for awhile, perhaps for a very long time. So, I think people's fears of his being issued a huge amount of stock being dilutive is overblown.
    Last edited by SteveSirius; 02-18-2009 at 12:26 AM.

  10. #10
    frigginregan is offline
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    Dude. $3?

    At this point, I'd be happy with $1(my break even point).

    I've been so battered with this stock and the external forces that continue to bash and keep it down....that even .75 cents is looking like a dream that will never come true.

    At the current price of .16 cents I'd have to sink another $2 grand into it to be able to get out at break even of .75 cents.

    The target keeps moving with this stock, and no matter how much I average down...I feel like I'm getting farther and farther away from ever breaking even.

    Love the product. But I can't stand the equity. It's by far the most manipulated, bashed and toxic stock I've ever been in, and I want OUT.

    Nothing against the company. It's just that too many of the big boys have it in for this stock. I've been in it for 4 years now....and I just want my money back. No more dreams of huge pops that never seem to come.

    I'd let it ride, but I need my money....and there are so many other equities that I could be making money in right now even in this market.

    I just don't trust being long in this stock anymore.

    I am going to try to average down a little more and hopefully get out by the end of the year.

    Good luck

  11. Ad Fairy Senior Member
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