How high could SIRI spike on tuesday and in the coming days?

[Siriusowner]

Even if they get past the FEB hurdle (which is not official yet), they still have to announce that they have done something with the May debt.

I do not expect Siri to trade above .20 on Tuesday then after all the news are assimilated it will depend on earnings on 2/23, perhaps gain 5 to 7 cents if they are really beating expectations, go up to .25-.27 ?

Then they will have the May hurdle, if they announce something soon, perhaps it goes up again to let's say above .30 ? Then you have a potential drawback with the announcement of the 2009 1st quarter earnings announcement...

I think this issue will be around $0.50 by Dec 2009. That is if the do not dilute more and do not reverse split the stock, which I doubt.

Got to keep in mind, SIRI is still losing money, perhaps less every quarter, but nevertheless losing money and it still needs to post a profitable quarter.

Of course I could be wrong and it could really shoot up... but I doubt it.

[Siriusowner]

Hi Phil .... what do you think "true value" is????

Are you talking about book value ? It was about $0.04 about two months ago. I have not looked lately but it is probably less because they diluted.

[Demian]

Demian, I would not count on a few strong quarters of FCF until the beginning of 2010. First of all Mel had stated that 2009 would have been FCF even, with out CAPEX, even is not strong.

Any free cash flow at all is strong compared to the burning of cash this company has done in the past! With the share price down in the pennies and the company switching from burning money to becoming profitable, the perception should change dramatically - especially with bankruptcy off the table. Is Mel under promising so as to over deliver? It's a very strong possibility IMHO. Wasn't the reason the stocked tanked down from over $1.00 to the current penny levels because of the '09 debt uncertainty and bankruptcy fears? If those are removed from the equation, shouldn't the stock be able to recover back to over $1.00? Are there not benefits from the merger? Have those benefits been valued in the current share price or has the '09 debt and the bankruptcy fears over shadowed everything that has been positive? With the clouds taken away, how bright might the sun shine?

[jimmy66]

Everyone here seems to forget the matter of 3.5 billion shares outstanding with 4.5 billion more authorized. Our best hope would be for Liberty to buy a 40% stake for roughly the 1 billion due this year. That would solve 2 issues, first the debt and second to set a fair value for the other 60% of the company. After that a reverse split of 1 for 10 would be the best option to lower outstanding shares below 1 billion. Follow that with some solid quarters and THEN the sky could be the limit.

[Siriusowner]

The stock will not hit $1 until ALL of the 2009 debt is resolved.

You mentioned a ton of potential catylists to boost the stock price, but remember that NOTHING has been holding this stock down except debt. That is it, nothing else, and it will not go over $1 (and stay there long) until ALL of the 2009 debt is resolved. We have absolutely no debt due in 2010. That is a HUGE plus.

Guys, why do you forget the Balance sheet so easy ? What is the shareholder equity ? Was it $15 K ? I do not have the sheet in front of me but I remember last time I look, SIRI was losing money. There was no EPS, E/P, etc ...

Keep it real guys, SIRI is a troubled company, these troubles will not go away in one day. They have to work thru all of them and that takes time.

The $3.00 stock price was an inflated price and that was before the merger. After the merger they acquired a ton of debt and they continued losing money.

How long do you expect a company that is losing money to survive (it has survived some years by acquiring tons of debt, which can put them out of business very easy, as y'all have learned, right ?). They have to make money, they have to make money, the have to make money!

You also have to keep in mind that we are in a recession, it is about company fundamentals BUT macroeconomics also ! The fundamentals are not poster fundamentals and this is not the best environment for a company to thrive.

That is why I've said, if SIRI survives the down turn, THEN, the stock will steadily go towards the pre-merger levels but it will take at least 1-2 years.

KEEP in mind also that if SIRI survives is not necessarily because of them, it was because a "White Knight" decided to step in... Again, there's so many problems and troubles with this company that it will be impossible to list all of them here. Now, I am not saying that they can not beat them but it will take a lot of effort and sleepless nights. Their problems won't be solved overnight.

[SteveSirius]

I think this idea of "losing money" or being "profitable" is really one of the key ideas to our seeing the stock price really take off (once we get past the bankruptcy and debt fears). It's kind of like going to a concert where there are seats empty. People notice it and say "the theater wasn't full". However, if every seat is filled, people go away saying "the show was sold out". It doesn't matter if there was only one person who was turned away or there were thousands who were turned away - "The show was sold out" is the response.

Similarly, if Sirius XM gets to the point of even making a penny a share, people will think of it as a profitable company. I think the difference in psychology, if and when this happens, will be huge.

[Siriusowner]

I think this idea of "losing money" or being "profitable" is really one of the key ideas to our seeing the stock price really take off (once we get past the bankruptcy and debt fears). It's kind of like going to a concert where there are seats empty. People notice it and say "the theater wasn't full". However, if every seat is filled, people go away saying "the show was sold out". It doesn't matter if there was only one person who was turned away or there were thousands who were turned away - "The show was sold out" is the response.

Similarly, if Sirius XM gets to the point of even making a penny a share, people will think of it as a profitable company. I think the difference in psychology, if and when this happens, will be huge.

I agree... but they need to make that penny yet !

[Siriusowner]

If the NY Post story is valid and removes BR off the near term the pps will pop well above the true value. But will settle back down to earth but well above where it is today. I would guess if BR fear is gone we could see a 500% to 700% pop. And settle back to about 300% from last last Fridays close.

If by true value you mean book value... the stock is already trading above book value...

Book value = Shareholder equity / shares outstanding.

I doubt the 300%-500%-700% pop... It would be reckless to think it will do that based just on this development.

[SD-08]

You're right on Siriusowner..........

Predicting sp is insane at this moment........Try finding a fair value FIRST, then try predicting dilution, reverse, what's in the "bailout" agreement etc.......to even guess at a sp.......

the sp premerger is meaningless for a 1000 reasons........someone tell me a cap value FIRST, then we'll work on the top ten ways to determine a sp.......

[SteveSirius]

Siriusowner-

I was just projecting way into the future on this one of a penny profit. I sure don't expect it anytime soon.