Originally Posted by
Newman
SiriusOwner, let me ask you this: When is the last time that this company actually traded based on fundamentals other than debt? Answer: NEVER.
This stock is currently priced for bankruptcy and nothing else. I agree that Sirius is an underperformer and will continue to be. Which number is it that most people use for valuation for earnings? Would it be EBITDA? If it is, Sirius is currently trading at 1x Estimated 2010 EBITDA (600 million est. EBITDA devided by 4.5 billion shares = 0.13) Regardless, as I said, the stock is priced for BK. Once BK is off the table (even temporarily, if May is not handled yet), the stock WILL spike. It more than doubled when the initial echostar news came out, and you don't think it will spike higher than that on this news? (Again, granted, we do not know the terms at this time)
You keep mentioning the fact that Sirius has yet to make a profit. While you are 100% correct, you also fail to mention (or fail to see?) the fact that they will be FCF even INCLUDING capex for 2009. I know FCF is not profit, but cash is king. As of NOW, Sirius should have absolutely no loss in FCF if their projections are correct which means that they are inching closer and closer to profitability.
As I stated earlier in this thread, I do not expect to see $1 anytime soon. I don't think December debt will be handled anytime soon, and we will not see $1 until after that is taken care of, and then only if the economy has started to turn around. You mention that it may make it back to premerger levels in 1-2 years? I think that may be a bit optimistic myself...