How high could SIRI spike on tuesday and in the coming days?

[imromo24]

from what the ny post article said, it seems that only the feb debt will be handled tuesday, then a few months later the may and then december. I don't think even Mel will refinance a debt that isn't due yet (unless in the case of obtaining other finance or getting a better deal) Sort of like refinancing your house for no reason at the cost of a a few thousand dollars to the mortgage company.

Only the Feb debt will be handled, with no mention of May or December. Stock pops to .25 and settles back around .14 while we wait for Q4.

After Q4, if good maybe up around .20.

I think siriusowner is right. We won't see anything until Dec 09 close to $1.

$Infinity.00 would help me pay some bills though.

[imromo24]

i guess ya never know either, if part of the deal is dilution we could go down from fridays close!!! ouch

[Phil]

If by true value you mean book value... the stock is already trading above book value...

Book value = Shareholder equity / shares outstanding.

I doubt the 300%-500%-700% pop... It would be reckless to think it will do that based just on this development.

No, I do not mean book value. I am talking about fair market trading value. Double check my math and please correct me if I am wrong. Siri is down about 3700% from its 52 week high, and I know 52-week highs mean absolutely nothing. I am using that in comparison to the market in general which is down about 50%. If bankruptcy is eliminated and near term debt is dealt with I do not think that 300%-500%-700% is reckless. 300% gain from Fridays close would put the pps at about .42. Again, please correct me If my math is off.

Edit: Sorry, 3700% would be the gain from Fridays close back to a 52 week high. What are we down from our 52 Week high of 3.89?

[SD-08]

Siriusowner, let me ask you this,

Is there a chance, that in typical MEL fashion of under estimating and over deliver, we could see synergies / cost savings greatly exceed expectations which could do wonders for FCF.

If so, staying on that same train of thought,

"WHAT IF" all the 2009 debt is handled by March 1 as Mel said? AND, Q4 numbers blow away estimates (I have a calculation that shows SIRI having up to $750m in coh),,,, Ipod,,,,new products,,,,advertizing,,,,,new services,,,,new partnerships, etc,etc,etc......all being strategicaly unveiled within a few months?????

EVERYONE, has known the 2009 debt hurdle is top priority since the merger, most of all MEL. That doesn't mean the rest of SIRI has shut down.

I'm not getting gitty just over putting the debt behind us, I'm gitty over the possibility of Mel orchestrating such plan on so many facets that it DOES change the company over night.......

Everyone loves say Mel shouldn't have done the merger after the 18 month delay and now he backed into a corner and doesn't know what he's doing. I completely disagree, he knows EXACTLY what he's doing and I believe he's playing EVERYONE!

btw, as for the auto's, we are in the BEST CASE scenario with them. Sales tanked and maybe bottomed in the 4th Q which means we INCREASED our coh by not having to make the acquisition payments, and now we have full exposure to every auto maker with our percentage of vehicle installation reaching 70%.

[Siriusowner]

No, I do not mean book value. I am talking about fair market trading value. Double check my math and please correct me if I am wrong. Siri is down about 3700% from its 52 week high, and I know 52-week highs mean absolutely nothing. I am using that in comparison to the market in general which is down about 50%. If bankruptcy is eliminated and near term debt is dealt with I do not think that 300%-500%-700% is reckless. 300% gain from Fridays close would put the pps at about .42. Again, please correct me If my math is off.

Edit: Sorry, 3700% would the gain from Fridays close back to a 52 week high. What are we down from our 52 Week high?

SIRI is down about 96-97% from its 52 week high. Now, if you assume that SIRI goes up to a performance similar to the NASDAQ composite or a little bit below, then it would mean that it indeed could go above $1.00 BUT I seriously doubt it. Why I doubt it ? Because that would mean that SIRI would be evaluated similarly to Google, Amazon and/or Apple.

Now, the NASDAQ has its over performers, its index performers and under performers. SIRI has been an under performer, where do you think it should actually be ?

ps: Going to .40 will still put SIRI as an under performer (86 to 87% loss). Do you think it is a fair value ? It may be, but not according to its book value.

[Siriusowner]

Siriusowner, let me ask you this,

Is there a chance, that in typical MEL fashion of under estimating and over deliver, we could see synergies / cost savings greatly exceed expectations which could do wonders for FCF.

If so, staying on that same train of thought,

"WHAT IF" all the 2009 debt is handled by March 1 as Mel said? AND, Q4 numbers blow away estimates (I have a calculation that shows SIRI having up to $750m in coh),,,, Ipod,,,,new products,,,,advertizing,,,,,new services,,,,new partnerships, etc,etc,etc......all being strategicaly unveiled within a few months?????

EVERYONE, has known the 2009 debt hurdle is top priority since the merger, most of all MEL. That doesn't mean the rest of SIRI has shut down.

I'm not getting gitty just over putting the debt behind us, I'm gitty over the possibility of Mel orchestrating such plan on so many facets that it DOES change the company over night.......

Everyone loves say Mel shouldn't have done the merger after the 18 month delay and now he backed into a corner and doesn't know what he's doing. I completely disagree, he knows EXACTLY what he's doing and I believe he's playing EVERYONE!

btw, as for the auto's, we are in the BEST CASE scenario with them. Sales tanked and maybe bottomed in the 4th Q which means we INCREASED our coh by not having to make the acquisition payments, and now we have full exposure to every auto maker with our percentage of vehicle installation reaching 70%.

Your WHAT IF scenario is too optimistic. Got to be more realistic.

[SteveSirius]

I think that, because at this point in time, there are so many unknowns, that it is impossible to predict price action on Tuesday and the coming days.

I think it will all depend on the following (and other factors, too):

If it is only a Feb. debt bridge loan, when must it be repaid and at what rate?

Is any entity getting a piece of Sirius XM?

What kind of piece? Satellite space? Repeaters? Equity? Profit sharing (if and when there is profit)?

What say in the running of the company will any lender/investor have?

What other money are they committing to?

Then, after we know these things, what will the "press" do with that information - how will they spin it to influence investors' thoughts?

What about the macro events of the day and how they might influence people's general fear levels.

I could go on but I'm actually going outside for a few hours now and away from this computer!!!!!

Let's keep the ideas flowing!!!

Good luck to all of us!

[sxminvestor]

If the POST news is not substantiated before Tuesday & not by early in the day, then I think the fear of bankrutcy will bring the stock back down to the.06 - .08 level again. You have to elephant balls to buy in large if that happens.

Our lives could be much easier if news isreleased before market opens or else it's going to be one helluva a day.

[SD-08]

I agree it's ambitious, but i also think it's more of a possibility than most think.

I honestly do not know how they DON'T have at least $600m on hand. They have to!! Starting with $360m and factoring in B of B, lifetime sub push, channel consolidation, synergies & less auto fees for the Q..?.?.?.? Put a calculator to it how ever you like,,,,,it's a lot of money.....

WHY DO WE NOT SEE ANY OF THIS YET?????? easy,,,because Mel doesn't want us to. he's playing possum. He's not letting anything positive out until the debt deals are done. It's a trojan horse.......look dead until you get what you want.

WHY DOESN'T MEL USE ALL THIS MONEY TO JUST PAY THE DEBT???? We'll he certainly doesn't have $900m and if he did he'd be broke after paying it. And second, he needs all that money for the next stage of the "big picture". Also, if he just worries about the debt payments one at a time then he'll never get out from under the black cloud. Feb's concerns will carry to May and May's to Dec. He's going to eliminate it all at once!!!!!!!!



Merger in July, for the next three months, everything ugly was reveiled. Merger cost and fees were built into the Q3 report...Things looked ugly.

Is it then a coincidence that anything that could be a positive didn't begin until October????? THE BEGINNING OF THE FOURTH QUARTER.....B of B, lifetime subs, more synergy activity.........none of the results of any of it has to be reported until FEBRUARY, AFTER THE DEBT IS HANDLED........

Mel could EASILY make the FEB payment, he doesn't want to unless ALL of the 2009 debt gets handled at the same time and he's holding all the debt holders hostage until it gets done...............

Do you really think the great MEL didn't have a VERY complex plan 6, 8 or 10 months ago??? Of course he did.........

IMO,,,,it's all or nothing,,,,if it's not this plan then it MUST be one just as ambitious and devious. If not,, we're dead...

If everything is just as it seems on the surface,,,WE'RE DEAD!!

You all can talk about 52 week highs and put % to them and the markets all you want. Keep wasting time guessing a sp based on SIRI and XM 8 months ago.....WASTE OF TIME....It means nothing....

someone tell me how many shares outstanding and the market cap at the 52 week high????? Then tell me what the market cap was based on???? Then tell me what any of it has to do with right now????????

[Siriusowner]

someone tell me how many shares outstanding and the market cap at the 52 week high????? Then tell me what the market cap was based on???? Then tell me what any of it has to do with right now????????

You seem to think that it is all about the cash on hand but...

Get the investor's equity from the last earnings report. Now, tell me how much was it ? now, tell me how much do you think it is right now. Divide that by the number of shares outstanding today. That is the book value, now tell me what the pps is right now and what it should be... why ?

You are right, market cap means nothing if the shareholder equity is non existent.