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Thread: Is the great homer wrong?

  1. #1
    LIBOR/TED SPREAD is offline
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    LIBOR/TED SPREAD's Avatar
    Joined: Dec 2008 Posts: 65

    Is the great homer wrong?

    GIVE A GUY A #@#$% HEART ATTACK!!!!!!!! Homer, you are probably the most knowledgeable person reagrding SIRIXM on the net, and have yet to find anything you post incorrect. When I read the following on the yahoo boards I litterly had to leave work as I felt like I was kicked in the gut!!!!!! For the love of GOD I hope your #'s are WRONG. SEE BELOW FOR THE ANSWER OF PAYING DEBT ON TUESDAY.......


    Start with $360 million...
    + Add in FCF from Q4 of about $50 million;
    - Now remove $180 million minimum balance needed, per their various indenture agreements;
    - Now remove $175 million to repay the February debt;
    - Now remove $44 million owed to the NFL in February;
    - Now remove $60 million owed to MLB in March;
    - Now remove $50 million for accounts payable

    = ($99 million) Homer's # that kicked me in the GUT!!!!


    CAN WE MAKE $175M PAYMENT TUESDAY???

    A. $50M FCF in Q4 is conservative #. My # $100M-$150M FCF
    B. $180M MIN PER INDENTURE CORRECT $ = $75M XM SIRI ?????
    C. MLB is a March payment
    we are focused on FEB 17th




    Start with $360 million...
    + Add in FCF from Q4 of about $100 million;
    - Now remove $75 million minimum balance needed, per their various indenture agreements;
    - Now remove $175 million to repay the February debt;
    - Now remove $44 million owed to the NFL in February;
    - Now remove $50 million for accounts payable

    = $116M minus SIRI MIN PER INDENTURE = ?????????

  2. #2
    homer985 is offline
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    homer985's Avatar
    Joined: Mar 2008 Posts: 485
    Whether I'm right or wrong -- that's not a lot of working capital there. And you didn't include any CAPEX, which Sirius is paying and preparing for a satellite launch.

    I'm talking about breathing room... there's not much there... and we're both making some really big assumptions. We both could be waaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyy off. So really, it doesn't matter if I'm right or wrong.

    And I'm not "great"... just honest.

    -------

  3. #3
    john is offline
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    Joined: May 2008 Posts: 2,836
    homer985, did you forget that there is revenue that comes in. The question here should be what was the cash burn proforma? Now I know I am a believer in Mel and all so take this with a grain of salt but didn't he say, that 2009 should be near FCF break even so at the end of the day while they will need some of the COH at various times in the year, by the end of it the COH should be near the same as it was in the beginning.

  4. Ad Fairy Senior Member

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