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  1. Sirius Roadkill is offline
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    02-12-2009, 09:42 PM #11
    Quote Originally Posted by LIBOR/TED SPREAD View Post
    Now remove $180 million minimum balance needed, per their various indenture agreements;

    Homer,

    Please post link to varify accuracy of this $180M minimum balance and of what debt is this tied too. This is the first I have seen of this, if true why wouldn't this have been discussed before? I am shocked if this is true.
    I read $200 million reserve elsewhere but am still trying to find that source; I will post it if I do.

    Newman seems to believe more like $50-$75 but cannot source his figures either

  2. homer985 is offline
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    02-12-2009, 09:50 PM #12
    To be honest, I can't find where I heard about the minimum cash balance... well all of it, that is and I don't have the mindset to look it up tonight. I do know that XM does have a covenant that says they have to maintain a minimum cash balance of $75 million to not be in default.

    "XM is required to maintain a minimum cash balance of $75 million under its revolving credit facility." -- Page 67
    http://idea.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d...32887/d10q.htm

    Regardless, looking at Sirius and XM individually -- note this...

    Sirius lists $359 million in cash on hand. XM listed that $215 million of that amount, was theirs. That means that $144 million of the cash on hand is Sirius'.

    Now look at just the Sirius cash items that are due...


    Start with $144 million...
    + Add in FCF from Q4 of about $50 million;
    - Now remove $175 million to repay the February debt;
    - Now remove $44 million owed to the NFL in February;
    - Now remove $25 million for accounts payable due
    - Now remove ??? million for CAPEX

    = ($50+ million)

    Keep in mind that I even kept ALL of the positive FCF with Sirius.

    No matter how you slice it, Sirius has some working capital issues here. Are you going to "take" the cash out of your subsidiary (XM) -- then bankrupt it? It doesn't work that way.


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    Last edited by homer985; 02-12-2009 at 09:52 PM.

  3. Sirius Roadkill is offline
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    02-12-2009, 09:51 PM #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Hopeful View Post
    no worries,
    here's a more recent news link . . . pretty much a rehash of what we already know but with a more negative slant on a Malone-Karmazin deal:

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/market...2?pageNumber=1

  4. john is offline
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    02-12-2009, 10:20 PM #14
    Homer first of all I have to say according to Miller Tabak you maybe correct in your FCF projection. I still think it is much Higher I also think getting less subcsribers help in the FCF area, less subsidies that have to be paid out.



    Sirius Roadkill, as for your 32 million number if you recall we had this discussion before (really cant remember if you were part of it or not but homer was). That number was much less, as a matter of fact it was a negitive of I think 244 million, and they still had 80 million in FCF for the 4th quarter of 2007. As "homer" has already said they are 2 different numbers not directly (on a ratio basis) related to one another.

  5. LIBOR/TED SPREAD is offline
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    02-12-2009, 10:39 PM #15
    "XM is required to maintain a minimum cash balance of $75 million under its revolving credit facility." -- Page 67
    http://idea.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d...32887/d10q.htm

    $180M vs $75M

    ($99M) + $6M

    Nice work Homer finding the link! Now What is required for SIRI?
    Is it $105M to get to your $180M you used to put us in default

    Sounds like we have a chance of paying $175M on Tuesday with NO OTHER cash injections IF the $75M is MIN $ amount we must have on the books?????????????

  6. LIBOR/TED SPREAD is offline
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    02-12-2009, 11:34 PM #16
    GIVE A GUY A #@#$% HEART ATTACK!!!!!!!! Homer, you are probably the most knowledgeable person reagrding SIRIXM on the net, and have yet to find anything you post incorrect. When I read the following on the yahoo boards I litterly had to leave work as I felt like I was kicked in the gut!!!!!! For the love of GOD I hope your #'s are WRONG. SEE BELOW FOR THE ANSWER OF PAYING DEBT ON TUESDAY.......


    Start with $360 million...
    + Add in FCF from Q4 of about $50 million;
    - Now remove $180 million minimum balance needed, per their various indenture agreements;
    - Now remove $175 million to repay the February debt;
    - Now remove $44 million owed to the NFL in February;
    - Now remove $60 million owed to MLB in March;
    - Now remove $50 million for accounts payable

    = ($99 million) Homer's # that kicked me in the GUT!!!!


    CAN WE MAKE $175M PAYMENT TUESDAY???

    A. $50M FCF in Q4 is conservative #. My # $100M-$150M FCF
    B. $180M MIN PER INDENTURE CORRECT $ = $75M XM SIRI ?????
    C. MLB is a March payment
    we are focused on FEB 17th




    Start with $360 million...
    + Add in FCF from Q4 of about $100 million;
    - Now remove $75 million minimum balance needed, per their various indenture agreements;
    - Now remove $175 million to repay the February debt;
    - Now remove $44 million owed to the NFL in February;
    - Now remove $50 million for accounts payable

    = $116M minus SIRI MIN PER INDENTURE = ?????????

  7. winagain35 is offline
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    02-12-2009, 11:49 PM #17
    I think our best hope lies with Malone and Liberty. It's pretty clear that we're going to need a cash infusion to get through this. The other alternative that Homer has brought up before is negotiation with MLB an NFL to access the escrow money. The WSJ made it sound like MLB balked at Mel's query. But they also were reporting on the overall amount and not on whether or not the escrow money could be tapped. So, who knows. It's going to be an interesting few days.

  8. Siriusowner is offline
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    02-12-2009, 11:53 PM #18
    Quote Originally Posted by winagain35 View Post
    So, who knows. It's going to be an interesting few days.
    It's going to be an interesting tomorrow. Tuesday we all be either wiped out or still holding SIRI.

  9. Greenland is offline
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    02-13-2009, 12:02 AM #19

    Siri Maguire ?

    " I'm using Xms Satellites to finance the debt , and keeping XMs subscribers , whose coming with me ? "

    " I will go with you " -Greenland

  10. SD-08 is offline
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    02-13-2009, 12:39 AM #20
    As for the speculation of the current cash on hand,,,,,,,,,

    I think all of these numbers that are being thrown around are incredibly conservative.........

    1. Not one mention of what "best of both" may have produced in Q4.

    2. Not one mention of what the "lifetime sub" may have produced in Q4 or this current Q1.

    3. The savings that may have been produced from synergies could be far more than expected due to the massive lay offs and the station consolidation. (I do admit that the severence pkgs could have been costly)

    If you chose to be anything other than conservative, you could make an arguement that they have $750m on hand.................

    Start with $360 million...
    + Add in FCF from Q4 of about $75 million
    + Add in 3 million b of b, ($4.99 x 12 months)= $179 million
    + Add in 2 million lifetime upgrades ( an extra $200 x 2 mil) $400 million

    Hell, that equals over $1 BILLION and I think the b of b and lifetime converts are CONSERVATIVE!!!!!!!!!!

    Someone explain to me how those numbers are so far off?????????????????

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