SIRI Intraday Updates for the Week of 2/09/09

[ray]

Checking nasdaq trading reports: VERY high vol of 100 share blocks are being traded..... What does anyone think?

[Greenland]

oh well , GERONIMOOOOOOOOOOO !!!!

[Hopeful]

Demian,

If Mel had good news wouldn't he have come out and said it!?

[Demian]

Demian,

If Mel had good news wouldn't he have come out and said it!?

He may still be in negotiations......and if this is part of playing hardball, he can't say anything till a deal is reached.

[Siriusowner]

I think this is what may be happening. This is from personal experience:

When I sold my house in Texas 10 years ago I received an offer the first day it was listed. The offer was for the full price but the person offering wanted help with the closing costs. My realtor told me to wait and see if we could get another offer. Well, the second day I got 2 offers, one for the full price and one for a little bit less. The 2nd full price offer person only wanted 2 rooms to be re-painted. We immediately rebuff the other offer. The realtor told me to accept the full offer where all I had to do was to paint the 2 rooms.

This may not be the case but I think Mel is still negotiating with other banks that have came forward with offers but he is using Ergen's offer as a leverage.

In any case this is just speculation and he may be in the same position I was when I sold my house in CT in 2006-2007, with only one bad offer after 7 months. He may have to take it, as I did, otherwise I would had to file for BK since I was paying for 3 houses at the time and I was begining to feel the pinch.

[slim]

"Here are the likely possible scenarios moving forward--and either way, shareholders are in trouble:

--Ergen and Karmazin cut a deal, injecting some cash into Sirius and converting its remaining $500 million-plus into equity. Common shareholders get diluted to virtually nothing.

--Sirius goes into Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Common shareholders are wiped out. "

Doesnt paint a good picture...Acording to some...what else can we hope for?

[Demian]

"Here are the likely possible scenarios moving forward--and either way, shareholders are in trouble:

--Ergen and Karmazin cut a deal, injecting some cash into Sirius and converting its remaining $500 million-plus into equity. Common shareholders get diluted to virtually nothing.

--Sirius goes into Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Common shareholders are wiped out. "

Doesnt paint a good picture...Acording to some...what else can we hope for?

You left out a lot of other scenarios there buddy......

You also copied and pasted that from recent bash piece without even crediting the source.

Are you short the stock and trying to scare more people out?

[nisvan]

slim, how about this option -

1) siri ponies up the 175 million cash feb 17th

2) no deal is ever reached between siri and ergen

3) siri renegotiates may loan with jpm

4) economy improves mid summer

5) by december siri has enough cash to pay
remaining convertible bond debt

6) life goes on

[slim]

You left out a lot of other scenarios there buddy......

You also copied and pasted that from recent bash piece without even crediting the source.

Are you short the stock and trying to scare more people out?

I am hopefull like you all... i have over $30k invested and forgive my ingnorance but there is whole lot of speculation out there... I've always been a "lurker" on the board without actually taking the time to sign up on the board, given the current situation i figured i would chime in...I really do just hope for the best.

[winagain35]

slim, how about this option -

1) siri ponies up the 175 million cash feb 17th

2) no deal is ever reached between siri and ergen

3) siri renegotiates may loan with jpm

4) economy improves mid summer

5) by december siri has enough cash to pay
remaining convertible bond debt

6) life goes on

I like that scenario! The only problem is that even given the most optimistic economic improvement, Sirius will not have $400mil to pay off the December converts. BUT - if the economy improves and the credit market loosens up maybe they could refinance.

Things are pretty gloomy right now, but we should have some definitive news between now and Tuesday. If the company pays off the $175mil WITHOUT Mr. Ergen - well, we've got a ballgame again.