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Thread: Sirius / XM debt question

  1. #11
    trippingthespeculatingpos is offline
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    its so temping to sell when its around .20 but i dont want to miss out if it keeps going to say 60-70 cent's or even a dollar. Im gonna watch it close, and im only going to sell if im absolutely sure the rally is over and its trending back down.

  2. #12
    trippingthespeculatingpos is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sworntwofun View Post
    Ive been wanting to add a few more shares before the the news next week...
    after watching the pps go to .20 I thought I miss my final chance...at 3:55pm I had a buy @ .11 and but relized it was gonna be too low and did not was to miss it again...So I bought it at market willing to go to .115 and triggered at .114

    and the rest is History... Long Sirius 50,000x Go Mel!
    ive never done a market trade, it scares the hell out of me honestly :O

  3. #13
    trippingthespeculatingpos is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sworntwofun View Post
    Sirius Echostar: Another perspective
    February 7, 2009 (5:20 pm) Brandon Matthews
    The news agencies are buzzing over a potential takeover bid by Echostar for Sirius XM. The Wall Street Journal initially reported that Echostar CEO Charles Ergan has been quietly buying up Sirius XM debt. Internet bloggers have jumped all over the story and have created mass confusion for investors in Sirius XM.

    There is so much misreporting underway, that there no longer seems to be clarity as to exactly what it is Mr. Ergan is actually buying. The Wall Street Journal has made it abundantly clear the Mr. Egan has been buying the Feb. 17 convertible debt. As the stock began to rise on that news, other agencies began reporting that he was in fact buying Sirius XM bank debt instead, and have created some outlandish stories around the topic.

    We have also learned that if in fact Mr. Ergan is making a play for Sirius XM, that all of the outstanding debt if it were bought and converted to equity would give Mr. Ergan only 18% of Sirius XM, which would require open market purchases to be made to give him a majority stake.

    All of these “would be-could be” scenarios have a common thread. They all assume that Sirius XM is going to default on its February and/or May debt obligations, and therein lies the main problem with the focus of this weeks events. No one has stepped back and questioned that perspective. No one that is, except yours truly.

    Here’s another perspective that does not involve conspiracy theories. To begin with, Echostar is not buying the debt. Mr. Ergan is. Having worked for a bond firm myself, my first thought was not that Mr. Ergan was making a play for Sirius, but was simply making a good investment. The convertible bonds were trading nearly 20% below par. If Mr. Ergan believes as I do that Sirius XM will in fact meet its debt obligations, buying these bonds is simply a sound investment decision.

    A wise investor, who dare I say may be in a position to have this sort of knowledge in advance would be wise in making a near 20% profit in only a few short weeks when these purchases were made. Further proof of this may be found in the bonds themselves, which are trading at a premium of 105 and offer a very large negative yield. Typically, bonds that are about to be defaulted on do not trade at a premium, but rather a substantial discount as bondholders look to unload them as one would a used car.
    yep, thats what im saying, your not the only saying that brandon!!!!!, i just dont write public articles about it :O

  4. #14
    Sworntwofun is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by trippingthespeculatingpos View Post
    ive never done a market trade, it scares the hell out of me honestly :O
    I know what you mean but it was down to the wire....I usually do a limit but like you said put it the ask price which was .115 instead of loosing it for .05 or something really believing this was the last shot in the .12's...I pressed market...1 secound later it could triggered at anything above 12 or 13 which was the closing... I got lucky this time....

    Tripp... dont you believe when the new comes out its gonna be over sold and then settle back down after the dust clears....like the duke suggested...

    I gonna need some smart help this week.....Pal

  5. #15
    trippingthespeculatingpos is offline
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    man if we could accurately predict where the stock price is going we would all be millionaires lol, all i can say is watch it very very closely and if ur a 100 percent certain it is done rallying and in a downtrend then pull the trigger, worst case scenraio is you miss out on the big gains which is why we are all in this stock. I think if they pay off the feb debt and it gets announced it will pop alot higher than it did this time, how high? no clue

  6. #16
    Shawn is offline
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    What did I do when the stock went to .22?

    I own 280,000 shares at an average share price of .30. I've been buying and averaging down for quite some time. My initial buy was at 3.05 per share. So when the stock rallied (wow, how I throw that word around!) and went to .22 I was filled with excitement. I had visions of the stock moving up over the next few weeks to about .50 or .60. based purely on HOPE. But I still wouldn't sell at .60. I'm in this for the long haul because I believe in the company. Funny, Charter Communications has gone bankrupt, but Sirius is still hanging in there. I believe Sirius is a viable company, and I believe if I hold my shares for the long haul I will be benefit big time. Wishful thinking? Yes. A sure bet? No. Am I hopeful because my average share price is .30? You bet. But I averaged down because I believe the upside potential is great and the downside risk is acceptable.

  7. #17
    Sworntwofun is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shawn View Post
    I own 280,000 shares at an average share price of .30. I've been buying and averaging down for quite some time. My initial buy was at 3.05 per share. So when the stock rallied (wow, how I throw that word around!) and went to .22 I was filled with excitement. I had visions of the stock moving up over the next few weeks to about .50 or .60. based purely on HOPE. But I still wouldn't sell at .60. I'm in this for the long haul because I believe in the company. Funny, Charter Communications has gone bankrupt, but Sirius is still hanging in there. I believe Sirius is a viable company, and I believe if I hold my shares for the long haul I will be benefit big time. Wishful thinking? Yes. A sure bet? No. Am I hopeful because my average share price is .30? You bet. But I averaged down because I believe the upside potential is great and the downside risk is acceptable.
    Your the Man....And got balls the size of bowling balls...I wish you the best of luck.... Im feeling good and we are all in this together...To win...including Mel...

  8. #18
    geronimo46 is offline
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    Nisvan

    Did you get filled @ 11.5? I had a low ball buy order in @ 11. from 1:00 until closing. Thought I would try to steel a few thousand shares at this rock bottom prince. Didn'g get there. Maybe Monday.

  9. #19
    Shawn is offline
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    I didn't buy anymore because I am happy with my position and my average per share price. Though i believe in the company, and I have most of my eggs in this wonderful basket, I am not a chicken farmer.

  10. #20
    Shawn is offline
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    Okay, at this point I actually own the farm!

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