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Thread: If you were me....

  1. #11
    Newman is offline
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    This technique is really best used by someone who follows the market on a VERY regular basis (read: hourly) like you do Trip. Someone who follows that closely can see paterns emerge and can see trading start to slow down, indicating a dip is near. If you only look at the price of SIRI once or twic a week (nobody can stay away that long, can they?) then this method is not for you if your plan is long term hold.

  2. #12
    SiriuslyLong is offline
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    When to sell? What a fine question. I bought at $3.20 back when Howard announced he will be going to Sirius. Soon after that, Mel came on board, and the stock skyrocketed to $7+. I held much to the chagrin of my wife who wanted to sell.

    My reasoning was that XM was trading at $25 at the time, and I thought there was more to be had. My target was $15. I didn't have a clue about "fundamentals" or anything for that matter, or I may have lowered that target, or sold.

    I have since averaged down to $1.67. I continue to consider further averaging down, but have not yet decided to pull the trigger in that Feb 17 is a mere 13 days away. I will wait and see.

    I don't ever think we'll see $25. That was not driven by any "fundamentals". To understand the true value of this stock, 2009 will have to be over, and, of course, without Sirius filing. Right now, we are simply betting on Sirius making it through 2009. It's that simple. Whether it is reasonable or not????

    If we meet February's debt, the stock will likely rise. I'm guessing it will get over inflated, so that traders can then short it as May approaches. If I were in at $0.14, I would consider selling on the spike, then buying back in late April to play the game again.
    Last edited by SiriuslyLong; 02-04-2009 at 01:36 PM.

  3. #13
    Newman is offline
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    Siriusly Long: You said if you were in at 0.14, you would consider selling...

    What does that make a difference? If you are sure the price will spike and then drop, you could sell all of your shares as well, and then buy them back in late April. Just because you are taking a loss initially, after you buy back in you will have significantly drecreased your cost average and dramatically increased he number of shares you own.

    You recomend the technique to Melted to catch the profit, but would not follow the advice yourself to decrease your losses?

  4. #14
    SiriuslyLong is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Newman View Post
    Siriusly Long: You said if you were in at 0.14, you would consider selling...

    What does that make a difference? If you are sure the price will spike and then drop, you could sell all of your shares as well, and then buy them back in late April. Just because you are taking a loss initially, after you buy back in you will have significantly drecreased your cost average and dramatically increased he number of shares you own.

    You recomend the technique to Melted to catch the profit, but would not follow the advice yourself to decrease your losses?
    I'm averaged in at $1.67. Should the stock go to $2.00 after February's debt is dealt with, you bet your behind I'm selling. I don't think it will go that high. At $0.14 one can triple your money at $0.52 which may very well be a reasonable price? That was basis of my comment. I don't have a clue what will happen - my crystal ball is as good as anyone else's.

  5. #15
    AmenhotepIII is offline
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    Why sell all your shares with a market order manually, when you can just put in a Trailing stop and possibly take advantage of upward movement while locking in a profit not even having to think about it. Just a thought from a newbie?

  6. #16
    m4svt is offline
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    i would buy more and hope this bitch goes up. you're buying a stock at "bk" prices, imagine if they do not go bankrupt and make money... that's some return. jmo.

  7. #17
    Newman is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by SiriuslyLong View Post
    I'm averaged in at $1.67. Should the stock go to $2.00 after February's debt is dealt with, you bet your behind I'm selling. I don't think it will go that high. At $0.14 one can triple your money at $0.52 which may very well be a reasonable price? That was basis of my comment. I don't have a clue what will happen - my crystal ball is as good as anyone else's.
    You are missing my point...

    If you fully expect the stock to double or tripple from current levels, and then retrace down a bit, why wouldn't you sell? I understand you have a much higher cost average. I have no idea how many shares you have. Let us just use 1000 shares at a cost average of 1.67. That means you have a total investment of $1670, but since the stock is at 0.14, your investment is only worth $140.

    Let us say that the stock tripples to $0.42 and you sell 20% of your shares (200). You would bring in $84. Now, the stock retraces back down to $0.30, and you put that 84 back into it. Assuming you have a nominal transaction fee ($7), you lost 7 on the sale and 7 on the buy. So you would buy $70 of SIRI at $0.30 for a grand total of 233 shares, netting you an extra 33 shares, and bringing your cost average down to $1.62.

    Yes, it only brought your cost average down by 5 cents, but we are also only talking about 1000 shares...

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