again, if he differed matterially from what the slideshow said, it would have had to be released in an SEC filing..
SIRIUS XM SATELLITE RADIO FORUM
again, if he differed matterially from what the slideshow said, it would have had to be released in an SEC filing..
NewmanOriginally Posted by Newman
Again, I was at the stockholder meeting and I quoted what he said. You can believe it or not.
Again, there was more to the the meeting than the slide show.
Last edited by J56D; 01-27-2009 at 12:11 AM.
i find this guy and what he has to say really interesting...........
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/St...47&tof=2&frt=2
Duke: SIRI And The Feb. Game Plan 25-Jan-09 08:53 am
If you have been following The Duke then you know that I have been telling you that we needed to fill in the gap between 8 cents and 11.5 cents. That assertion brought out the usual suspects and is still a matter of debate on the board. This week we filled in the top half of the gap with REAL trades between 10.01 and 11.5. Here is a question for you--if the MM gave me a two month notice about the bottom of a stock what would I do? Let me know when you figure it out.
Today I thought that we should discuss a strategy for three weeks from now. Feb 15 is decision day since I do not think SIRI will invoke the 30 day extension clause in the Feb converts. If they go BK then there is nothing to do but if the converts are paid off, you need a strategy.
Let's look at a couple of facts before I opine on the future. SIRI has had an an almost uninterrupted slide from 80 cents to 10 cents. Most of the old shareholders above $1.00 are long gone replaced by a new class of millionaire wannabees. The Feb converts problem is not the end of SIRI's debt problems--May 15 is around the corner with 350M due. The financial press hates SIRI. Finally, the overhead resistance points are at 30 cents and 42 cents.
Okay so what have we learned in the past 60 days about companies that do a partial refi or get the bank terms modified to avert BK. The stock shoots up but ALWAYS has a 50% retracement from its TOP as the realization sets in that the crisis is not over.
On Nov 23, give or take a day, I referred to Sunrise Assited Living SRZ being in the same shape as SIRI with the stock sitting at 32 cents--SIRI was 27. The next week SRZ completed a partial refi and on Dec 9 hit a high of $2.64, bet you wished you had bought that one. Since then it has corrected down to a low of $1.04 and is currently selling in the $1.20's.
Here is another one. Allied Capital ALD. The stock hit a low of 1.55 on Dec 19. Then the company and its lender Bank of Disaster reached a loan modification agreement that allowed the company to avert a BK filing. By Jan 7 the stock had soared to 5.33 but closed Friday at $3.47.
The pattern is clear. SIRI will avoid BK in Feb by a stock for debt swap and the stock is likely to rally to either 30 or 42 cents. You need to use this rally to sell because three weeks later the stock will have fallen back by 50%. Even if you are a long time SIRI holder you should use this rally as a way to reduce your cost basis. How? Sell part of your holdings into the rally and then replace the sold shares in a couple of weeks with lower cost shares.
Do not fall into the trap of believing SIRI is going to the moon. It ain't happening.
Why? Those facts I pointed out. The financial press still hates SIRI and three days later will be saying SIRI is not out of the woods. Also Mel will not have announcement on March 1 because no bank will commit to a package that does not go into effect until May 15. Forget the 4th quarter results--they have never moved the stock before and they will not this time.
If you were fortunate enough to buy below 30 cents use this as an exit strategy. You can always buy back later.
Remember The Duke's first rule of investing--no one ever went backrupt taking a profit.
Interesting I was wondering about that. If it went up would it shoot back down drastically when everyone wakes up and remember that its two more hurdles. Not sure if I will go with this or not but very interesting concept though.
i think if u have a high avg it would be a good chance to sell and get back in with a lower avg assuming it drops :O after thinking about it i might sell it if it drops back down to the .20 cent range, but i wanna make sure i dont get rid of it just to get a higher avg than i already have, i like my .16
Last edited by trippingthespeculatingpos; 01-27-2009 at 12:06 AM.
please tell me i'm not the only one who purchased this stock when it was $ 2.20 or more.
I originally purchased it at 3.02 "Big Jackass ahahaha" I have now avg down to .25...
Feb 15th can't wait!!! Good or bad I just want to know!!!
tripp...some good reading right....I had to read them all..... I hope he's right!
Blalock is not a VP... He's the head of investor relations and it's not hard to talk to him personally. I have twice. Call and leave him a cordial message and he will return your call. It's his job. That said, he won't provide ANY information that is not readily available in SEC filings.
He is a VP... Senior VP of Investor Relations
Reply With Quote