SIRI Intraday Updates for the Week of 1/19/09

[Demian]

The Motley Fool sent me a personal email inviting me to join their pro service for $500 off. I have to decide quick though, because they say that space in their Pro service is limited and almost filled up and that they will stop accepting new members soon. I also get the "welcome kit" for free! I guess they normally charge $29.95 for the welcome kit. I wonder what's in the welcome kit? A bunch of SIRI bashing articles?


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[APEXSPORTS]

You have been saying about that risk being out since I sold at .177.. and it keeps going down .105 .. and yes baked in some of it but it will lose 2 cents when it comes out on dilution to the .08-.10 range like I said.. and I will by 100,000 shares. febuary is 10 days away

[Demian]

You have been saying about that risk being out since I sold at .177.. and it keeps going down .105 .. and yes baked in some of it but it will lose 2 cents when it comes out on dilution to the .08-.10 range like I said.. and I will by 100,000 shares. febuary is 10 days away

Apex,

I'm glad that it worked out for you getting out when you did so far, but I still could be right if the stock instantly spikes up on financing news and, because you don't have a position, you miss out on it.......

[trippingthespeculatingpos]

yeah looks like its working out for ya so far.

[Hopeful]

Really low volume the last few days... Everyone waiting till refi gets announced or have the shorts left?

[Demian]

These guys always bash.....and can't get their facts straight.

http://www.todaysfinancialnews.com/u...t-ii-7331.html

Satellites dropping from the sky

Finally, if there is one company with shareholders desperately fearing the “B” word, it is Sirius XM Radio (NASDAQ:SIRI). The company’s debt threatens to bring it to its knees within the next month, yet so many investors continue to throw their money into the company.
They are making a huge mistake.
Sirius has an incredible debt load. It started with over $300 million in debt due in February. But thanks to converting that debt into dilution-inducing equity stakes, that figure is down to about $190 million.
If the company somehow manages to convince its remaining debt holders to convert their stake into stock (which is losing value by the second), Sirius still has nearly $600 million due later in the year.
If the company has to pull out all of the stops just to get through February, what can it possibly due to get itself out of the jam it faces later in the year? There are few options.
One option would be to increase revenues by raising prices, but the FCC says no way. The inability to raise its basic prices was part of the package that allowed Sirius and XM to merge last year.
The only way forward for this company is to renegotiate its expensive talent contracts and its incredible debt burden. The best way to do it is in bankruptcy court. That means today’s shareholders will see their position reduced to nothing.
Shares are already down to just $0.11 each. For investors that got in when they were trading for much more, the bottom does not look so far away. But if you get in at today’s prices, hoping for a rescue, you better be able to afford to lose your entire stake.
Sirius, in its current state, will not be around to see all of Obama’s first 100 days. It simply has too much debt and not enough options.

[TheMapMaker007]

I've been watching you all on here for a while now, and I've got to say that your commentary makes my day (even in the face of SIRI's nosedive into obscurity). Relatively new investor - got into the market back in October when the sky started falling. I've got enough years left to take big risks so thought what the hell. (this is probably my riskiest position).

No astute SIRI commentary...just props for making me smile. Best of luck to all on this forum.

Sirius Long - 1200+ shares and counting...

[Demian]

Welcome to the board Mapmaker......don't be a stranger.

[Demian]

SIRI closed @ .1075 on super light volume of only about 15 million shares traded.....

Markets were red today....

[Demian]

The Motley Fool mentions SiriusBuzz in this article....

http://www.fool.com/investing/value/...at-it-can.aspx

Sirius XM Raises What It Can
By Rick Aristotle Munarriz
January 22, 2009

Now that's what I'm talking about.

Shares of Sirius XM Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI) didn't seem to move yesterday, after word slowly trickled out about an upcoming rate increase for certain satellite radio subscribers. It's a move that has favorable cash flow implications, assuming things go as planned, even if the market's not initially impressed.

SiriusBuzz broke the news that the monthly rates on additional subscriptions and online streaming -- essentially the two plans that aren't governed by the FCC-mandated rate freezes as a condition for the merger's approval -- are going up on March 11.

Wake up, investors. This is hopefully the first step of many by Sirius XM to -- ideally -- bump up its share price, to the point where it can better raise the money it needs to fend off nail-biting creditors.

Why am I the only one in this cheesy cheerleading outfit? These pom-poms are rented, you know.

Pump up the jam
The company's Internet streaming service will get a long-needed bump in audio quality, but it will no longer be free for existing subscribers. Users will have to pay an additional $2.99 a month for access. In addition, members who are already paying $12.95 a month for their service will now have to pay $8.99 -- a $2 monthly increase -- for additional receivers within the same account.

The beauty of the jacked-up plans isn't necessarily the new rates. The timing is actually a bit unfortunate, given the state of the economy. One can argue that if roughly a quarter of the accounts decide to dump their secondary subscriptions altogether instead of caving in to the 29% hike, that it will be a pointless move.

Few users are likely to pony up for online streaming, despite the improved bit rate. There are just too many free Web alternatives like Pandora, Slacker, Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) AOL Radio, and CBS' (NYSE: CBS) Last.fm to view this as a premium growth vehicle, despite the worthy content. Losing cash-strapped listeners also won't help with the efforts to smoke out more ad revenue.

However, what a looming rate hike will do is inspire subscribers to either upgrade to lifetime subscriptions or prepay for years of future service to lock into the old rates. As long as they have the means -- and let's face it, this is a real issue right now -- listeners may be sending a lot of money Sirius XM's way over the next few weeks.

Jam up the pump
The moves won't do wonders for the income statement, since the capital infusion isn't booked as immediate revenue. However, it will fatten up the company's balance sheet at a time when it has some serious refinancing hurdles to clear.

The move may also lead to a pickup in retail activity. Sirius XM is growing nicely on the automotive side, but crickets are chirping in the aftermarket. Leading retailers like Best Buy (NYSE: BBY), RadioShack (NYSE: RSH), Target (NYSE: TGT), and Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) all sell Sirius and XM receivers, but there hasn't been much of an incentive to buy in recent years. That may change if folks try to lock in old rates, especially if Sirius XM gets on the ball and lets its existing subscribers know that now is the best time to buy those portable receivers to tack on discounted secondary accounts at the old rates.

This is good -- perhaps likely even great -- news for Sirius XM shareholders. The company should be shouting it from the heavens.

Gimme an S! Gimme an I! Gimme a moment to return this outfit.