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Thread: Pessimism / optimism

  1. #1
    RickF is offline
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    Pessimism / optimism

    Just wondering - I would love to hear what folks think. What do you think would be the "best case" scenario for the stock price within the next year - 2 year window. Not "pie in the sky" but realistically possible - and why? I think it goes without saying that the "pessimistic" side would be bk. Is $5/share possible within a year???

  2. #2
    SiriusBuzz is offline
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    I think $5 is crazy talk. You are talking about a $1k investment now being worth $35k if it goes to $5 per share.
    Charles LaRocca
    SiriusBuzz Founder

  3. #3
    jmm232 is offline
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    $1-$2.50 iscertainly possible once the debt overhang is out of the way. We continue to grow in this environment (car market, recession), there is no reason this stock should remain below $1.

  4. #4
    john is offline
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    Charles, I dont think it is to crazy to think that it might get that high. It after all did it before, 4 years ago. Also would it be crazy to think a 35,000 dollar investment would be worth 2,000 in the same time frame. That said, I do think jmm232 is more reasonable though.

  5. #5
    SiriusBuzz is offline
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    I was figuring in the state of the company, economy, and financing issues. $5 per share is not going to happen this year.
    Charles LaRocca
    SiriusBuzz Founder

  6. #6
    RickF is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by SiriusBuzz View Post
    I was figuring in the state of the company, economy, and financing issues. $5 per share is not going to happen this year.
    I kinda agree SiriusBuzz that it won't go there this year but .... 2 yrs? ... 3 yrs?? Think its even possible?

  7. #7
    Newman is offline
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    A few years down the road? Certainly. 2009? Not a chance.

    In my opinion, it all boils down to when they get financing for December. They stock will not cross $1 until that i taken care of. If they wait until November to get it, the stock might be at $1-$1.25 at the end of 2009. If they are able to secure financing earier than that, they stock will be a bit higher. I do not think that you see anything close to $5 until about 2013 (without the Reverse Split that is) when Sirius starts pulling in a decent amount of cash.

  8. #8
    RickF is offline
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    Thanks Bunches for your input guy's!! I can hande (I think) feeling this pain if i think there is a glimmer of light at the end! Hopefully it is not the train!!

  9. #9
    James is offline
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    $1.00 is reasonable if they get the debt issues resolved. The rest is dependent on how much dilution occurs and the number of customers they are able to attract. Long term (lets say 2013) I would put the upside at no higher than $2.00-$2.50.

    If Sirius gets to $30 million customers and dilutes to no more than 5 billion shares, a optimistic scenario if there ever was one, and if each customer had an ARPU of $10 a month. At $10 a month, the revenue would be $120 a year times 30 million equals 3.6 billion in salesa. Divide that by 5 billions shares and that comes to .72 a share in sales. If down the road, it was massively profitable it might justify a 4X revenue price or $2.50

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