http://siriusbuzz.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1241Originally Posted by Siriusowner
SIRIUS XM SATELLITE RADIO FORUM
http://siriusbuzz.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1241
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...ml&dist=pfbeta
At the beginning of the decade a number of internet and next-generation technology companies raised money through venture capitalists and IPOs. Many of these companies had little, if any, revenue. Most had relatively high expense structures.
As these firms quickly ate through the cash on their balance sheets and continued to have poor sales prospects, the term "burn rate" was coined. If was defined as the amount of cash a company had on its balance sheet divided by the firm's monthly expenses less any revenue. An operation with $12 million in cash less short-term debt and a $1 million a month "burn rate" was expected to be out of business in a year.
At this point, GM (GM) and Chrysler would make any burn rate risk lists as would a number of retailers who had awful holiday seasons and are facing repayment of debt or revolving credit facilities. That is why Pier 1 (PIR) is trading at $.40 and shares of Dillard's (DDS) are off 80% over the last year.
The use of the term has almost disappeared but it is likely to re-emerge now and refer to companies which are more mature and part of the mainstream economy. With credit nearly impossible to come by, operations with high debt and negative operating income are going to be defined by how long the capital they have access to will last.
Sirius XM (SIRI) is the most well-known company with a burn rate problem. It has about $1 billion in debt due this year, and has been running an operating deficit which is shrinking but may not go positive before the company becomes insolvent. At the end of its September quarter, it had $360 million in cash. The modest cash position and high debt accounts for a $.13 stock price.
Another company which is almost certainly to be taken under by its burn rate is Charter Communications (CHTR). With $21 billion in debt and interest coverage that is overwhelming its operating income, Charter may not make it until the end of the quarter.
The newspaper industry is being crippled by the burn rate problem. Big chains Journal Register and Gatehouse are already at the edge of insolvency. McClatchy (MNI), the country's third largest newspaper company may well have debt service problems this year. Even The New York Times (NYT) is facing a $400 million debt payment later this year and does not have the cash on hand to cover it.
Unless the credit markets unlock at a furious pace, there will be a lot of well-known companies going into bankruptcy this year.
Douglas A. McIntyre
SIRI's 3 billion in debt is nothing compared to CHTR's 21 billion in debt......things could be worse.
Face it, the only worst thing is BK.
Looking at the charts, all of the indicators (RSI, MACD, ADX, AROON, etc.), not to mention the convergence on the trend line and the resistance level of .13 and the support level of .11 all say the same thing for tomorrow morning - and that is "Out of the gate sideways or slightly down INITIALLY". However that could take a quick change bullish or bearish. So it will be a really iffy start and possibly really mixed up for a bit until bulls and bears pick a direction to go. As far as the falling wedge....well it really isn't defined that well at this point, so I have some disagreement there, but am willing to have some optimism, but a few more days should clarify the wedge, hopefully.
Also it made a bullish crossover about 10:30 this morning and then made a bearish crossover about 11:00 a.m., but the convergence and divergence stayed relatively parallel and close until the closing where they were almost identical.
The strength levels in the ADX and RSI are tending to go slightly in the right direction, but still are weak, but not in the worst position.
So, I say for tomorrow, sideways to slightly down at the beginning and then a possible very very quick adjustment either direction. It will be interesting, because it could take off any direction because the numbers are just too close. This is just a prediction from reading the chart for a couple of minutes and using typical chart sense. When we can get 3 days of good positive divergence, then we could be on our way. With a good three days, it could be a great indicator to buy, but let's see what happens.
Rest up and back into the battle tomorrow!
so this is the second time that they've diluted shares as of late. are they just going to dilute the shares little by litte until the feb debt is paid off? or are they going to dilute the shares until theyre down to a certain amount where they will be able to refinance? what do you guys think the strategy is here?
Ficonnaci agrees, sideways or down. Probably back to .1275 to 0.13 at closing. Whenever it comes back up, it needs to do so with a bang and close above the downtrend line.
Fundamentally S&P downgraded SIRIUS and each time a rating agency upgrades or downgrades it is better to jump to the other side once the news settle.
Little by little. There's not need to do them all at once.
With standard chart protocol, yeppers! BUT, who knows...have a great evening!
You all can't be serious talking about trend lines between 11 & 13 cents. Zero = no financing or $1.00 with financing & the trends means nothing. People have been talking about downside resistence from $9.00 to .12. I can tell you one thing, 0 is the bottom.
And I own shares and tempted to buy 10g's worth right here, I have to laugh at this thread.
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