tell mel to watch out for shoes
tell mel to watch out for shoes
Last edited by J56D; 12-17-2008 at 11:21 PM.
While my opinion may not be popular, there are reasons I feel the way I do:
1. The company under ANY management (be it the current one or any other) would be asking for the same thing. They need to be prepared for the delisting procedure (notice will be filed in January - unless NASDAQ extends it). They need to have the latitude to work financing deals. It is hard to get financing when you are on the pink sheets. and harder still if you can not offer converts. Lenders need to have a comfort level that the company is at least viable enough to pay bills and some interest.
2. The company has the ablity to extend the meeting to obtain the votes they need. Institutions will already be in the yes column. That leaves a small amount of retail shareholders to round out the vote. If they do not have enogh tomorrow, they will be able to get the votes. The company has the ability to reach out to shareholders, opposition groups have far less ability to do so.
3. On does not have to like the reverse split of the added shares, but one also has to consider the alternative. I think many will take the lesser of two evils on this.
4. Waiting on these issues is not really an option. While you can hold off delisting, you need to refinance. If I was a bank I would demand that the company have the plans on the books and ready to go if needed, not going to shareholders to see if they will approve the measure at a later date.
5. Realistically speaking what other option is there? Pay Feb debt in cash, whack the balance sheet, try to work with lenders who want to know there is liquidity, wait for a delisting notice, appeal, and then come to the delisting date trying to get a vote passed in the 11th hour?
My feelings will not go over well with some, but I am trying to be realistic. I have seen scores of people suggesting a stock buyback at these levels. The company can not, by law, buy back stock until they are in a profitable position. I would hope that people would reseacrh these things, but many do not.
Satellite Standard Founder
I don't disagree with you on anything in your post. I don't believe that Mel should be replaced because I feel that it is too late in the game for that to make any positive difference. I believe that the reverse split is already a done deal. I would vote for the added dilution if the BOD would agree to use 100% of the proceeds to pay down the debt but we all know that will never happen. I will vote against both even though I know that my vote will not make a difference. I live in tax and spend Connecticut (A very liberal democratic state) and voted for John McCain even though I knew that my vote would not matter.
Sometimes you vote the way you do just to make a statement which is why I will vote against spend and dilute Mel Karmazin.
And your statement is what? That you would rather go into BK and loose everything than be diluted and have a chance of coming back and making some money?
I dont get it... What is the statement that you are trying to make?
Thats IT! Lol.
I KNOW I promised NO more rants...but heres one for all the longs.
With ALL due respect Newman...I just HAD to say something to you (and to an extent your buddies Tyler and Brandon) in regards to your complete lack of understanding to MANY true long's feelings.
Your above statement "Would you RATHER go BK and loose everything than be diluted and have a chance of coming back and making some money?" is INSULTING.
EXCUSE me? MAKING SOME MONEY????
Again Newman, with all due respect, what pisses some longs off is your total inability to respect or grasp the reality of our reasoning. You ever hear of a thing called PRINCIPLE? Not ALL longs sold the majority of their shares ok?! So when we hear you say MAKE OUR MONEY BACK....we have to laugh.
Can you even understand that MANY of us feel this is our last say? That we STRONGLY feel that there is NO way we will make any money back if the RS and further dilution happen?
And NO...we DON'T want to go BK either. But just as strongly as you feel....we feel the opposite ok? Can you understand that?
For you it may seem like grandstanding and foolish stubbornness....but for us, it's not.
Can't you see that many of us just don't feel as strongly as you do that risking all our shares for the "HOPE" that Mel won't do us wrong or that AFTER a 50 for 1 RS and 4 more billion in dilution we won't be shorted into oblivion again let alone EVER even come CLOSE to break even again?
Can you SEE our point??? Just once??? Even a little???
It's not your view that a RS or further dilution is better that gets us. If thats what you believe...FINE.
No...it's the arrogant condescending tone aimed at us that our stance is dumb and stupid.
I'm sorry, but thats the way it comes off.
For many of us, I'm sorry...but it's NOT stupid....and JUST as valid as your stance.
Many of us have had it with hope. But if we ARE going to HOPE....at this point, it feels better to HOPE on the other side - that Mel and company will be forced to do everything they can OTHER than screw the shareholders to turn this thing around.
And YEAH...before you or Tyler use the "BUT the proxy is just a last resort and will help them get financing" defense....excuse me and others if we just don't want to give management that bullet ok? After years of broken promises, excuse us if we just don't have faith in them NOT pulling that trigger. After all, these are the same people who said they didn't need the merger but that it'd be GOOD for the shareholders. The same people who signed that "UGLY" deal and sold us out to the shorts to close the merger.
I am sorry. This is it. This is our last say. Again, many of us DIDN'T sell the bulk of our old shares. Some averaged down. Some didn't. But we still have a bulk of our original money still in this stock. Therefore our "perspectives" may be a little DIFFERENT.
Look...for arguments sake, lets say one of us longs against the proxy originally invested 100 grand at an average of $5 a share and has 20,000 shares. Like all of us, they've been thru hell these last few years. Said yes to the merger. Believed in management. Took the gamble. And now their 100 grand is worth $2,800.
If a 50 for 1 RS happens, his 20,000 shares will instantly become a measly 400 shares with no guarantee that the shorts won't knock the post split stock price right back down making their investment even more worthless.
Now listen up Newman, so you can perhaps grasp our logic....EVEN if the shorts were held at bay, the share price would have to go to $250 just for the above person to BREAK EVEN.
Why can't you even acknowledge that our point of view is a valid one?
I just can't stand the incredulity of you and Tyler and Brandon when it comes to our attitude. Our reasoning is NOT stupid. It's no less valid than yours.
If we are in all likelihood going to loose our money either way...many of us would rather know we made a stand and sent a clear message to management in the final hour.
Look...many of us just don't have faith that management will do right by us if they are given that bullet ok?
It's a crap shoot either way. I'm not going to condescend down to you for your belief....please don't condescend down to us for ours. It's friggin INSULTING.
Peace out, and good luck to all longs tomorrow.
Last edited by frigginregan; 12-18-2008 at 04:34 AM.
Lets get something out of the way: Unlike Tyler, I wasnt as smart. I have never sold shares, I have only accumulated them. I never locked in a profit. I am in the exact same boat you are in. I have averaged down substantially, but I still am no where near profitable or breakeven. This stock could doublt, and double again, and doublt again, and double again and I would still not be at breakeven. So I have just as much skin in this game to loose as you.
Now, I see your point as valid. I just don't understand it.
My point to my post is: You say you dont want to give managment that bullet. Ok, that is fine, as long as there is another way to achieve the financing that is needed. Any ideas? Are you going to join Hartlieb in the offer to throw 10 grand in cash into a "fund" to give to Sirius as a low interest loan? I don't have that kind of cash to throw around right now, do you? All it would take, is a mere 100,000 investos to give 10 grand each to pay off the debt... shouldnt be too hard right? If not, what other options does Mel and Co. have?
Without authorizing dilution, how is Sirius going to deal with the debt obligations due in 2009? Answer me that question, and I will change my vote. Until then, I do not understand how you can vote against the shares, knowing that if they do not dilute, there is a VERY real chance of BK. People are having a hard time getting a 30k dollar CAR loan right now, how is Mel going to borrow 1 billion with no real collateral?
Yes,I know the risks of RS. I don't like it. In fact, I voted against it. I can see Tyler's point about creditors wanting it in order to get a deal through, but I think they have time to approve it at a later date if absolutely necessary, and creditors know it will pass if all else fails.
You do not have to approve the RS in order to approve the dilution. If the dilution fails tomorrow, there may be a pop because of the unexpected non-dultion. If it does, I will sell every share I own, because without dilution, I feel there is probably greater than 90% chance of BK. With dilution, it sits closer to 20% (in my uneducated opinion).
Last edited by Newman; 12-18-2008 at 05:43 AM.
OUR LEADERWILL SAY..
1. CAR SALES SUCK!!
2. WE WILL TURN PROFFIT IN 2009
3. WE ARE VERY CONFIDANT WE WILL GET REFINANCED
4. THE MERGER HAS SAVED US 600,000,000 SO FAR IN SYNERGIES
5. I SLEPT AT A HOLIDAY INN EXPRESS LAST NIGHT
6. I AM NOT ON VIAGRA
7. MY WIFE IS HOTTER THAN YOUR WIFE
8. I DRIVE A BENTLY WITH 22"
9. MY RAP NAME IS MEL KASIZZLE
10. YOU ALL ARE SCREWED BECAUSE WE ARE DILLUTING SHARES AND REVERSING 50/1..AND HAVE A NICE DAY!!!
differing opinions are fine. It is my opinion that there are many that are proposing to vote against the measure without having a proposed plan in place. That is the question I ask people.
Okay, you want to vote against the measures.....what is the solution for the debt? what about the delisting process?
Do you think that the shares will get above $1 in time? Do you want to rely on NASDAQ extending the extension? Is a reverse split okay in 6 months only if NASDAQ demands it? I am not being a wise guy here. I am asking serious questions.
My opinion is that the shares can not and will not appreciate until ALL of the 2009 financing is taken care of. This means that the company either has to whack their cash position substantially, or refinance If I was a lender, I would want a degree of certainty in loaning money. If I was a lender, I do not care whether the company is a success or not...I only care that I, as a lender, would make money. It is likely that Financing will need to be handled with converts. Converts for shares that are in the pinks is not a good thing to a potentail lender. The question is what you would do as a lender?
I get frustrated with people saying fire Mel and not taking the next step. Who will you replace Mel with? Even if someone is qualified, would the position be attractive to that person? How much money would it take to bring someone in? The same is true for the BOD. Who will you want to bring in? Can the company handle an entire management transition?
I fully understand the issues that dilution and a reverse split bring. I am also understanding of what transpires if those measures do not pass.
Friggen......In your opinion what happens if these measures do not pass? What can you rely on as certainties? I am curios to know. What do you feel is a better refinancing deal? To borrow $1 Billion at 15% interest, or to use shares and converts to get the $1 Billion at 8%?
Satellite Standard Founder
Forget can the company handle it. Does it make sense to replace management when they are in the process of trying to get a deal refinanced? It sets whatever progress you have made backwards.Can the company handle an entire management transition?
In a football game, would you take out the starter in the last two minutes of the game and put in a cold QB in the hopes he can strike a rhythm with the receivers? It's counter-intuitive. Say what you want about the current management, but the company is not in the position where they can realisitically be swapping people around. Let them see it through, wherever that may take us. If we make it to the other side, then you can do spring cleaning.