Newman, I think your on the right track. It has been difficult for me not to dip into savings to buy at this price but something tells me it can go lower, but what I am trying to get my head around is not 7c 5c or the like less than current but rather how it will play out with the looming 8 billion (or is it 3.5b?) shares hanging out there and when the RS could happen.
Scenario:
Feb '09
Feb debt refi'd....stock pop to say 18c less than 30c (imo)...looming dilution and RS still there....
September/October '09
then sometime before the next debt move we get some dilution to pay off next debt load in december (lets say after a good 1Q & 2Q and stock is up to .50 or close to $1) by now they are on the Nasdaq delist which is going to take a bite out too.
November 09:
More dilution to pay off debts....stock drops to under $1...
December:
Good 3Q stabilizes stock price but looming RS keeps it under $1 forcing the RS.
I am going to try my damndest to save my cash and buy sometime after the dilution starts because either way in my mind having them out there causes worry with investors.
BK is not going to happen and this stock is going to the moon, but the key now is the above scenario and when to buy. The only way it goes lower is after the RS and if the projections are lowered in 09.
Just my opinion from what Ive been reading and watching. Sorry if dates and stuff are wrong im just winging it from memory without facts in front of me.