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  1. imromo24 is offline
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    Joined: Aug 2008 Location: Steeler Town, MI Posts: 2,524
    12-19-2008, 08:05 AM #121

    Wait to buy?

    Newman, I think your on the right track. It has been difficult for me not to dip into savings to buy at this price but something tells me it can go lower, but what I am trying to get my head around is not 7c 5c or the like less than current but rather how it will play out with the looming 8 billion (or is it 3.5b?) shares hanging out there and when the RS could happen.

    Scenario:
    Feb '09
    Feb debt refi'd....stock pop to say 18c less than 30c (imo)...looming dilution and RS still there....
    September/October '09
    then sometime before the next debt move we get some dilution to pay off next debt load in december (lets say after a good 1Q & 2Q and stock is up to .50 or close to $1) by now they are on the Nasdaq delist which is going to take a bite out too.
    November 09:
    More dilution to pay off debts....stock drops to under $1...
    December:
    Good 3Q stabilizes stock price but looming RS keeps it under $1 forcing the RS.


    I am going to try my damndest to save my cash and buy sometime after the dilution starts because either way in my mind having them out there causes worry with investors.

    BK is not going to happen and this stock is going to the moon, but the key now is the above scenario and when to buy. The only way it goes lower is after the RS and if the projections are lowered in 09.

    Just my opinion from what Ive been reading and watching. Sorry if dates and stuff are wrong im just winging it from memory without facts in front of me.

  2. APEXSPORTS is offline
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    Joined: Oct 2008 Location: cambridge,ohio Posts: 214
    12-19-2008, 08:38 AM #122
    Well after we pay debt off with dilluted shares we fall to .07 then we r/s at 1-50 thats 3.50 a share that means the stock needs to go to 57.00 for me to brake even!! Best investment ever!!

  3. imromo24 is offline
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    Joined: Aug 2008 Location: Steeler Town, MI Posts: 2,524
    12-19-2008, 10:27 AM #123
    yes, screwed. Thats why Im trying to figure out the timing to buy, im mostly out of money but i guarantee there will be a perfect time when those of us without the cash to keep adding to our position could jump in. right now does not seem to be it according to my scenario it may not be until late 2009, so instead of buying put that cash aside, save up some cash. IMHO. I could be wrong but the up side is if Im wrong then I'll make cash on my current position.

  4. stang3O2 is offline
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    Joined: Nov 2008 Location: Indy/LA/chi/ny Posts: 422
    12-19-2008, 11:01 AM #124
    Heavy volume early this morning with a price in the green at .14 there has been 11 million traded in the first half hour, 8 million in the first 5 minutes

  5. LIBOR/TED SPREAD is offline
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    Joined: Dec 2008 Posts: 65
    12-19-2008, 11:27 AM #125

    Why SIRIUSOWNER is a bit frustrated

    I also in DFW area (around the Flowermound area) I am always up for getting together and drinking some crown!! I am not up for mind games with Mr. smarty pants and his 12000000 Obama IQ. As far a SIRI stock price as Tyler always says TIME WILL TELL who is right and I for sure am taking the OVER!! Now a few reason why SO is not a happy camper.

    A. Crabtree's continues to give him nightmares!!! WHAT A FREEKING PLAY!!

    B. My daughter could of caught that PICK with 30 seconds to go that would have put TU in the national championship game AND the Crabtree GAME CHANGING play of the DECADE would never of happened.

    C. SO painfully had to pull for OU not just 1 but 2 games (that had to hurt) just to watch OU get to play for BIG 12 champoinship anyways!!!

    D. Watch the REAL McCoy win the Heisman!!!!

    These reason would cause any human to go a bit nuts

  6. Newman is offline
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    Joined: Jun 2007 Location: Dallas Texas Posts: 1,162
    12-19-2008, 01:18 PM #126
    Stang, part of that heavy volume was mine. I officially liquidated my Sirius holdings for Tax purposes. Don't worry, I will be back in 30 days...

    (See my new signature?)

  7. Greenland is offline
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    Joined: Jul 2008 Location: nation's capitol Posts: 119
    12-19-2008, 01:54 PM #127
    soooo......what are the chances that siriusxm gets its debt refinanced in FEB. , and then does this unbelievable marketing promotion for MLB and PGA , and when i say unbelievable , i mean at every pre-season MLB game for each team . this stock will be back on its feet by august. there are ten times more MLB fans than football fans and only one-quarter of them own SDs . wait , i see.....i see....my SIRI stock @ $ 52.83 in October 2018. huh .......what? .......oh...sorry guys , fell asleep at my desk again. lol !

    end of transmission

  8. Demian is offline
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    Joined: Oct 2008 Posts: 2,320
    12-19-2008, 01:55 PM #128
    Quote Originally Posted by Newman View Post
    Stang, part of that heavy volume was mine. I officially liquidated my Sirius holdings for Tax purposes. Don't worry, I will be back in 30 days...

    (See my new signature?)
    Great Newman, now you will be secretly hoping that SIRI goes lower so you can buy back cheaper......

  9. Demian is offline
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    Joined: Oct 2008 Posts: 2,320
    12-19-2008, 01:58 PM #129
    Shouldn't SIRI be rallying on this news?

    http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081219/meltdown_autos.html

    AP
    Bailout approved: Automakers to get $17.4B
    Friday December 19, 12:24 pm ET
    By Deb Riechmann, Associated Press Writer
    Bailout approved: Bush says say government will give automakers $17.4B in loans

    WASHINGTON (AP) -- Citing danger to the national economy, President Bush approved an emergency bailout of the U.S. auto industry Friday, offering $17.4 billion in rescue loans in exchange for tough concessions from the deeply troubled carmakers and their workers.

    The government will have the option of becoming a stockholder in the companies, much as it has with major banks, in effect partially nationalizing the industry.

    At the same time, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said Congress should release the second $350 billion from the financial rescue fund that it approved in October to bail out huge financial institutions. Tapping the fund for the auto industry basically exhausts the first half of the $700 billion total, he said......

  10. Demian is offline
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    Joined: Oct 2008 Posts: 2,320
    12-19-2008, 02:13 PM #130
    Quote Originally Posted by LIBOR/TED SPREAD View Post
    I also in DFW area (around the Flowermound area) I am always up for getting together and drinking some crown!!
    I normally don't drink Crown - I only said that because I know that Siriusowner does (I prefer wine and margaritas). Haven't heard back from him yet though. Maybe we can get together with Newman, is anyone else in the DFW area?
    Last edited by Demian; 12-19-2008 at 02:16 PM.

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