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Thread: 3rd Quarter Earnings

  1. #1
    Siriusowner is offline
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    3rd Quarter Earnings

    SIRI reported 3rd quarter 2008 earnings of USD -.07 per share on 11/10/08.This beat the consensus of USD -0.091 by USD 0.021 of the 8 analysts covering this company.

    WTF !!! I though they had reported -.09, did they revise the number ?

    It is their bigest surprise ever, 23.08%, this is good news (eventhough they still lost money) !!! Did someone mention this in the forum ? Did I miss it ?

    The consensus of the 7 analysts covering SIRI for 4th quarter 2008 is a per share value of USD -.08.

    They need to BEAT that number, in other words they can not go from -.07 to -.08 even if that is the consensus. The earnings announcement will be 2/23/09.

    It looks like in the last 3 years they have had a rough 4th quarter. In fact the 4th quarter has been their worst every single year !!! Damn ! This does not look good.

    I got this information from my broker.
    Last edited by Siriusowner; 12-11-2008 at 09:57 PM.

  2. #2
    jmm232 is offline
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    Fire your broker immediately. Sirius beat estimates in Q3. They will beat in Q4. They have already stated that losses for the year will decrease another $50M in Q4.

    Q4 is one of the strongest months, not the weakest.

  3. #3
    Newman is offline
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    Q4 has been the STRONGEST quarter for the past few years, at least for Sirius individually. The Q4 2007 for XM was ugly, but nearly all of that was one time charges and merger related expenses.

    Is your broker saying that Q4 is estimated to be a loss or is that for Full Year 2008? If that is the estimate for Q4, they will blow the roof off of that number. They will be cash flow positive for Q4, as they have been for the past 2 years (sirius-wize anyways).

  4. #4
    Siriusowner is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Newman View Post
    Q4 has been the STRONGEST quarter for the past few years, at least for Sirius individually. The Q4 2007 for XM was ugly, but nearly all of that was one time charges and merger related expenses.

    Is your broker saying that Q4 is estimated to be a loss or is that for Full Year 2008? If that is the estimate for Q4, they will blow the roof off of that number. They will be cash flow positive for Q4, as they have been for the past 2 years (sirius-wize anyways).
    See the atachment...
    Attached Images Attached Images

  5. #5
    Siriusowner is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by jmm232 View Post
    Fire your broker immediately. Sirius beat estimates in Q3. They will beat in Q4. They have already stated that losses for the year will decrease another $50M in Q4.

    Q4 is one of the strongest months, not the weakest.
    Follow this link and read the last post from 11/10/08...- http://siriusbuzz.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1017

    Also, check the attached file from today. It clearly states the projections and what they have done in the past.

    Why should I fire the broker ?
    Attached Images Attached Images

  6. #6
    Newman is offline
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    Ask your broker if he/she is including XM results along with Sirius's as a combined company.

    Since this is their first Q4 as a combined company, it will be very difficult to get a grip on how the metrics will weight out, but Q4 has always been the strongest - NOT weakest - in all of the quarters. I looked at the attatched file. Have YOU looked at the numbers to verify their accuracy?

  7. #7
    Newman is offline
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    I take it back: Your broker is correct.

    According to the 2007 Annual Report released on Feb. 29, 2008, the 2007 numbers were exactly what were posted in that graph. This is for Sirius only, and include all of the merger costs and one time charges/fees, and are not the pro-forma results, which we are used to seeing posted.

    One thing to look at in this is the improvement.

    Q1 06 Net Loss 458.5 million, Q1 07 Net Loss 144.7 million. 68% Reduction in Losses
    Q2 06 Net Loss 237.8 million, Q2 07 Net Loss 134.1 million. 43% Reduction in Losses
    Q3 06 Net Loss 162.9 million, Q3 07 Net Loss 120.1 million. 25% Reduction in Losses
    Q4 o6 Net Loss 245.6 million, Q4 07 Net Loss 166.2 million. 33% Reduction in Losses

    While the numbers may not look great, it is still a drastic improvement over where they were. Cash flow will still be grossly positive, and you will see many more merger related synergies in the Q4 report.

    As far as the date earnings will be released: It was a complete guess on the part of your broker or whoever they get their information from.

  8. #8
    Siriusowner is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Newman View Post
    I take it back: Your broker is correct.

    According to the 2007 Annual Report released on Feb. 29, 2008, the 2007 numbers were exactly what were posted in that graph. This is for Sirius only, and include all of the merger costs and one time charges/fees, and are not the pro-forma results, which we are used to seeing posted.

    One thing to look at in this is the improvement.

    Q1 06 Net Loss 458.5 million, Q1 07 Net Loss 144.7 million. 68% Reduction in Losses
    Q2 06 Net Loss 237.8 million, Q2 07 Net Loss 134.1 million. 43% Reduction in Losses
    Q3 06 Net Loss 162.9 million, Q3 07 Net Loss 120.1 million. 25% Reduction in Losses
    Q4 o6 Net Loss 245.6 million, Q4 07 Net Loss 166.2 million. 33% Reduction in Losses

    While the numbers may not look great, it is still a drastic improvement over where they were. Cash flow will still be grossly positive, and you will see many more merger related synergies in the Q4 report.

    As far as the date earnings will be released: It was a complete guess on the part of your broker or whoever they get their information from.

    I am not saying that they have not been improving, what I was saying is that according to the numbers for the past 3 years the 4th quarter seems to be their worst in net losses for some reason... and still, losing money is never good, even if they have been improving.

    The other question was, when did they revise 3rd quarter results from -.09 to -.07 EPS ? If you click on the link I included in one of my previous responses you can see the last post from Demian saying that the EPS for the 3rd quarter was in fact -.09 and not -.07.
    Last edited by Siriusowner; 12-12-2008 at 05:48 PM.

  9. #9
    imromo24 is offline
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    Im sort of guessing but I think I read that the "actual" number was .07 which beat the estimates....but when factoring in some of the costs for the merger it dropped it to .09.

    hope that helps and is correct.

  10. #10
    homer985 is offline
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    Q4 has traditionally been the strongest cashflow quarter, then any other quarter... but due to the large number of sales/new subscriber signups, it is also a very high operating expense quarter -- and depending on the marketing used to bring in those subscribers, the net loss has at times been quite large comparatively. However, cashflow is key in Q4, IMHO. Both XM and Sirius have had positive cashflow in Q4's going back awhile (except XM last year, which bought out several expensive contracts and had merger-related expenses that drove their cashflow down).

    I believe that Sirius is waiting to finalize/announce their February financing issue when they get a handle on what kind of cashflow they'll have coming in post-Christmas. Because I believe a good chunk of it will be used to pay against the $210 million coming due -- with the rest going on a Term Loan. In which case, I wouldn't (and haven't) expected any announcement on this until perhaps mid-January.



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