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Thread: Technical update

  1. #1
    Siriusowner is offline
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    Joined: Nov 2008 Location: The Oil Patch, Texas Posts: 922

    Technical update

    Thomson Reuters had an overperform rating for SIRI since August until early November. Then they started messing with the performance rating, one day they had underperform, the following overperform, then underperform, neutral all making sense with the market turbulence and so on... until they settled with the underperformed rating about 2 weeks ago.

    Well, on 12/8 they changed again to Neutral due to technical factors.

    I identified these technical factors about 1 to 2 weeks ago, when I posted my "SIRI is trading on a range" post. In that post or a subsequent one I said that it was safe to buy around 15 cents. The report seems to confirm this.

    So, buy around 15 cents, sell around 23 cents if you have the guts and definetely before the 12/18 meeting only.

    Fundamentals and operational trends still suck so do not add for long term investment. At least I won't, too damn risky. As always, seek pro advice before jumping in if you decide to do the contrary.
    Last edited by Siriusowner; 12-10-2008 at 12:39 PM.

  2. #2
    socalrunningfool is offline
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    Joined: Sep 2008 Posts: 229

    Short term buy

    What exactly do you think the shareholder meeting will do to the stock price?

  3. #3
    Siriusowner is offline
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    Joined: Nov 2008 Location: The Oil Patch, Texas Posts: 922
    Quote Originally Posted by socalrunningfool View Post
    What exactly do you think the shareholder meeting will do to the stock price?
    There's 3 possibilities:

    1.- If and only if they announce a refinance the stock will break the range to the upside... not by much (it will pop though, perhaps for 2 or 3 days, just to come down and settle) ... perhaps the 0.25 cent will become support instead of resistance and will find another resistance around 0.31, which is the 1 Bil market cap. line at this point. This is following fundamentals and not much of a technical analysis which is very difficult to separate these days form the fundamentals. These days you have to use a mixture of both.

    2.- If on the other hand, they remain muted about it, it may be interpreted as bad news and the stock may break to the down side, perhaps not by much, maybe 5 or 7 cents. 15-16 cents will become resistance and 9-11 support. The stock will trade on that range until a catalyst makes it break that range. The catalyst could be an announcement about the debt again or that they beated EPS expectations in Q4 2008.

    3.- Bad news, like lowering the guidance for 2009, and is armageddon... The announcement about the dilution and the RS are already built into the stock price so those two will have an effect only when they are realized.

    That is my analysis. So, as you can see, trading before the meeting is very risky... at least from my point of view.

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