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Thread: Question for Sirus shareholders

  1. #11
    Siriusowner is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by HD303 View Post
    It was killing me no one was answering the question, and I wanted to know the answer, haha.

    B would be better, right, over the long run? I dunno if I calculated it right, but you'd lose 100 dollars with the odds of choice A compared to gaining 50 dollars with choice B. Am I wrong, or what?
    Right. B is the correct answer. Even for gambling.

  2. #12
    HD303 is offline
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    Siriusowner, what do you think the odds of Sirius XM going bankrupt are?

  3. #13
    Siriusowner is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by HD303 View Post
    Siriusowner, what do you think the odds of Sirius XM going bankrupt are?
    I assume you want the short answer:

    In mathematics, a probability of an event A is represented by a real number in the range from 0 to 1 and written as P(A). An impossible event has a probability of 0, and a certain event has a probability of 1.

    Therefore, the odds of SIRI going BK is 1(2), 1 in 2 or 1/2.

    Thanks.

  4. #14
    HD303 is offline
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    Where'd you get the 1 and the 2?

    Sorry, but I don't understand.

    Edit: Okay, I think I see what you're saying. So do Google, Microsoft, and Berkshire Hathaway each have the same odds as Sirius XM of going bankrupt?
    Last edited by HD303; 12-03-2008 at 10:51 PM.

  5. #15
    Siriusowner is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by HD303 View Post
    Where'd you get the 1 and the 2?

    Sorry, but I don't understand.

    Edit: Okay, I think I see what you're saying. So do Google, Microsoft, and Berkshire Hathaway each have the same odds as Sirius XM of going bankrupt?

    I gave you the short answer. All the companies have the same odds if you use the most common type of probability.

    There is another type you can use where you can assign a value to each "statement". It is called Bayesian probability - I am not going to explain the method here. Buy a good book a statistics and probability if you want the method explained.

    For these cases where you have different issues, this approach will yield the best answer: There's at least 75% chance that Sirius goes bankrupt using this method.

    Of course the gurus in this Forum will argue that that is not going to happen and I agree, there's 25% chance it may not. This is why it is called probability...And the odds are defenitely against the company.
    Last edited by Siriusowner; 12-05-2008 at 10:34 AM.

  6. #16
    Newman is offline
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    Ok, you cannot throw out a statement like "There's at least 75% chance that Sirius goes bankrupt using this method." and not explain your reasoning behind it.

    At least when I said 20% chance of BK, I made the disclaimer that it was a guess with no science behind it... Care to explain?

  7. Ad Fairy Senior Member
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