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Thread: SIRI Intraday Updates for the Week of 12/01/08

  1. #1
    Newman is offline
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    SIRI Intraday Updates for the Week of 12/01/08

    Welcome back to the weekly thread for the begining of December!

    We had a surprisingly good week last week, lets hope it keeps going UP!

    I would like to thank Demian and APEX for contributing so much to these threads throughout the week, and I would like to welcome PMO who began posting some technical trading tips/patterns last week. I myself have never understood technical trading, but I have seen it used by people to predict some rediculous trends successfully. PMO, I stay and keep us informed!

    Trade on...

  2. #2
    APEXSPORTS is offline
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    lets go sirius xm... daddy needs a new pair of shoes..

    the # for shopping are down vs. what i read sunday in the wsj(up3%).. and the market is pointing down.. looks like another short for the qld and pray siri hold on to its gains from last week.. peace ..

  3. #3
    SiriusHope is offline
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    Lots of volume 10 million shares the 1st 1/2 hr of trading and premarket was over 1 million traded. lets hope we gain .02 pps today and everyday for awhile. The week leading to dec 18 should be really interesting to see where pps is by the vote.

  4. #4
    SiriusHope is offline
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    1st hour over 17 million shares traded as high as .235 lets hope it closes at near that.

  5. #5
    m4svt is offline
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    holding up well, one of the only stocks that's up today.

  6. #6
    Demian is offline
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    Pivot Table for Today
    R2 - R1 - Pivot - S1 - S2
    0.25 0.22 0.20 0.17 0.15

  7. #7
    Demian is offline
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    This article has a lot of errors in it. For starters - Stern was hired before Karmazin arrived at SIRI....

    December 01, 2008

    10 CEOs To Go For 2009: Mel Karmazin of SIRIUS XM (SIRI)

    It is December, and it is time for many companies to review their existing plans and decide to make some major changes in 2009. SIRIUS XM Radio Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI) now stands at a critical juncture, and this is a call which will not come about easily. It is also a call which may be one of the more controversial calls out there. It is time for a major change at SIRIUS XM, and that change needs to be the ouster of Mel Karmazin as CEO.

    For a backgrounder on criteria, we do not name a CEO with the title of "one who needs to leave" just on share price alone. This call is also not just because the growth ahead will be less than many have hoped and less than what Karmazin had predicted before. The call isn't even based upon the great possibility that even that lowered growth target may have to be talked down again. This is also not personal at all because we have had no dealings with the company nor with Mr. Karmazin. But there has been serious destruction of investor wealth here, and to a point which cannot be ignored or overlooked. The only recent investors who have made money are those who sold shares short.

    If you go through the list of 2008 CEO's to go, almost all of those called out have moved on by now. If you go through our list of 2007 CEO's to go, you'll see that most have hit the road.

    Mel was deemed a hero when he came over and was credited as the key reason that Howard Stern landed at SIRIUS. So he does deserve a large part of the credit for the large rise tied there. But Stern's massive pay package came out so high at a time when shareholders were already feeling a major pinch, and that may have been the first straw putting pressure on the camel's back. That prior success was short-lived and has since turned into a shareholder disaster.

    We predicted the path to merger in late 2006 and even suggested that either Panero or Karmazin would go when the new company launches. Panero was the one who left. And Mel Karmazin either miscalculated the time that the merger would take or he just assumed that the merger would get approved since every other merger was approved. You can look through our "satellite" sector and see his comments we have noted over and over on this. The result was a disaster because the merger took so long and came at such a cost that now the company has some serious viability issues if it cannot secure ample financing. The company just wrote off enough value from the XM merger that the current numbers are now almost numbing.

    Mr. Karmazin has been giving far fewer interviews and it seems that he has been making far fewer public appearances lately. We noticed in one of his recent interviews how Mr. Karmazin sounded far less confident than in past reports. At the last earnings report, we were flabbergasted about how the company handled the reporting.

    We have commented on market rumors in the recent past about Karmazin possibly taking Sirius private. It seems that the current LBO/MBO financing is not there for Karmazin to orchestrate this, but if the company does get to effect its reverse stock split and then trades off again, then he might be able to pull it off if the access to capital starts to come more easily.

    SIRIUS needs to lock up its key talent and it needs to do so at new market rates rather than past rates that are not reflective of the current media climate. While we think that Karmazin needs to go, our prediction differs than what we feel should happen. We think that Karmazin is on a track to buying enough time until the ability to secure financial partners is easier, and then he can make his move. Karmazin "may" try to acquire SIRIUS and if that occurs we do not believe it will be at anything close to favorable terms for today's existing shareholders.

    While we do not like to only harp on share prices, the value destruction here has been enormous and the efforts from holders to ouster the company might actually have a shot at achieving their goals here. Michael Hartleib, an individual leading and suing Sirius, offered up comments on this. He noted specifically, "What's transpired during Mr. Karmazin's leadership is nothing more than criminal and I'd like to remind you of the CNBC piece Mr. Karmazin did entitled "I am American Business" in which he states "the reason I like to be the CEO of a publicly traded company is because the shareprice is like a report card." News Flash Mr. Karmazin.... I and members of give you a big fat "F" which I guess is appropriate considering the way you ____ us (edited over)."

    Satellite radio is easily considered one of the great consumer products of today, and therefore we are saying that SIRIUS XM is one of the great consumer products. If the company can implement what we think it wants to implement ahead, then it will be an even greater consumer product. Whether or not a growing army of the unemployed and whether a horrible auto sales and slower consumer spending market may affect the future numbers is not what we hold against Karmazin. But the facts speak for themselves, and we think that SIRIUS XM needs to be run by someone who is more aligned with its investors of today rather than a manager who did great and then gave it all back and then some.

    In 2004 at the start of the run, the stock did go from $2.00 to almost $8.00. But after shares broke under $6.00 in 2006 they never recovered. Sirius stock peaked around $4.00 throughout 2007. Shares now sit around $0.20. So even a 500% gain from here would do little for the very long-term investors. The pure destruction of value here has just been too great and it seems that the outcome for shareholders is looking more dire by the week. Karmazin has already said he wants to pursue a reverse stock split, and our caution to the public here is that reverse stock splits do not have the greatest history after the split is effected.

    One important issue in Mel leaving his post is that it might make getting the financing package more difficult. An investor might be unwilling to loan the company capital if there is management turmoil. But you could also argue that a new financial package might come with the stipulation that the backers get to name their own CEO at the helm.

    While we think that Karmazin should go, we put the odds that he will leave on his own accord at less than 50%.

    Jon C. Ogg
    December 1, 2008

  8. #8
    Demian is offline
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    The DOW is now down 430...

    SIRI is now down about .02 after reaching .235 earlier...

  9. #9
    Demian is offline
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    FCC Extends Deadline For Sirius XM To Lease Channels

    WASHINGTON -- December 1, 2008: Sirius XM Radio had until November 28 -- four months after the XM-Sirius merger that created the company was approved by the FCC -- to lease 4 percent of their channels to qualfied third parties, but the FCC's Media Bureau has now, on its own motion, extended that deadline to February 27, 2009.

    As a condition of their merger, XM Satellite Radio and Sirius Satellite Radio voluntarily agreed to put 4 percent of their full-time channels in the hands of qualified third parties through long-term leases or other agreements.

    The FCC said in an order released Friday, however, that in light of commenters' concerns about the mechanics of the lease administration and the FCC's own commitment to determine the details of the lease condition "at a later date," it now needs to extend the deadline to give the commission time to work out exactly how the condition will be implemented.

  10. #10
    Demian is offline
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    StarPlayr 0.0.1 Sirius/XM Player for WM Released

    Dave from GeeksToolBox has released an Alpha version of their upcoming StarPlayr for Windows Mobile. The player allows you to stream your existing Sirius or XM Radio account over your phone's data connection just as you would on a computer. Those familiar with SiriusWM5 will recognize Dave's excellent program. StarPlayr for Windows Mobile builds upon the success of SiriusWM5. This program is an early alpha build, but it gives you a good idea of what to expect.
    Current Features:
    Album Art
    What's Playing
    SMS Sponsor System Enabled
    StreamSmart (TM) Powered SIRIUS and XM Support
    Please register at his website and download the program. You need to have an existing Sirius or XM account in order to access the streams.


    StarLight for Mac and StarPlayr for Windows Mobile now available
    December 1, 2008 11:12 AM
    Last edited by Demian; 12-01-2008 at 03:07 PM.

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