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Thread: Assuming Stern leaves in 2 years...

  1. #1
    jonpluc@aol.com is offline
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    Assuming Stern leaves in 2 years...

    Im curious why people think Sirius is a good long term investment when you consider the one person responsible for bringing in probably 20-25% of the subscriptions will almost certainly be gone in two years. Then legions will let their subscription expire.

    There is Baseball and NFL and Nascar and Oprah aplenty on TV, terrestrial radio, internet ad infinitum.However there is only one way to get Stern and that is probably at least 3-6 million people who probably wouldnt even have the service otherwise.

  2. #2
    Demian is offline
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    #1 - You can't watch TV while you are driving or even get a signal out in the boondocks.

    #2 - It's years before Sterns contract is up, and it may get renewed.

    #3 - Not everyone that Stern brought to satellite will cancel once they have been exposed to the service and all it has to offer.

    #4 - If or when Stern leaves there may be an intriguing replacement that would bring in new subs.

    #5 - When Sterns contract is up, the company should be in a much better position.

    #6 - It would save the company tons of money to negotiate better terms with Stern or someone else...

    #7 - The stock at this level has armageddon priced in..

  3. #3
    jonpluc@aol.com is offline
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    1. Plenty of people listen to Stern in their homes. If they wanted to watch football they can go into their living room.

    2. Sterns contract is up in two years and if your a listener to the show, you know hes been talking about what he thinks the other cast will be doing with their lives in 2 years time post show. He got his big payday and a new model wife. Hes done.

    3. True but there is no way even 25% of them will stay. Even under best case senarios of retention, it will set back subscription goals for years.

    4. Radio stations have been trying and failing to replace Stern with different interesting personalities for decades. No one has yet to succeed. Just ask the CBS radio division.

    5. Sure if you think losing 20%-25% of your subscribers practically overnight is good for business. Remember, there is a reason Stern got paid that money. He fills subscriptions, better then any other person in radio. Period.

    6. See answer 4 and 5

    7. I doubt the stock has the price of Stern leaving in 2 years even remotely factored in yet. The market isnt nearly that forward looking.

  4. #4
    SiriusBuzz is offline
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    Howard Stern will not retire when his contract is up. You heard it hear first.
    Charles LaRocca
    SiriusBuzz Founder

  5. #5
    jonpluc@aol.com is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by SiriusBuzz View Post
    Howard Stern will not retire when his contract is up. You heard it hear first.
    Hes almost 55 years old and has made it clear he doesnt want to become like Imus. Hes also tired of waking up at 4am and its getting harder as he gets older. He also just got married,and he just spent a fortune on a new house in the Hamptons. Spending that kind of money kind of implies he actually intends on living there.

    The only possible reason that HS would stay is for financial reasons as his 500M contract was in large part paid to him in shares at $4 each that are now .15 cents each. But i do know he cashed out a large but undisclosed amount so i dont even know how much the stock drop has indeed actually hurt him.

  6. #6
    SiriusBuzz is offline
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    He is in great shape so his age doesn't matter... yet. Imus is 68 and incoherent!

    He loves what he does and will not leave until he knows Sirius XM has survived... if he doesn't, he cant say that he went out on top. Which would kill him.

    He might not get up and do morning drive but he will still do a show.

    He could by 5 houses in the Hamptons with the money he makes and never live in any of them.

    That is not true about his contact... as far as I remember there was a large sum in cash and stock options were bonuses.

    The fact is, the man is an egomaniac and he loves what he does... he is not going anywhere when his contract is up.
    Charles LaRocca
    SiriusBuzz Founder

  7. #7
    SiriusHope is offline
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    Charles hit the nail solidly on the head. He could not live w/o doing a show...he loves the attention. His wife and his homes will never be able to replace or compete with his ego and need to be in the forefront in radio.

  8. #8
    Newman is offline
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    If the money is not there from Sirius XM, I think he may go podcast willie, but he will NEVER, and I repeat NEVER go back to terrestrial. Will he have the same following going podcast willie? I doubt it. No internet in the car makes for a bad drive time show, and people prefer live broadcasts as opposed to replays.

    Just like all of the SatRad listeners: Once you have tasted SatRad, you will never go back to the idiocy of Terrestrial radio.

  9. #9
    Wheelhouse is offline
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    Sat radio is most profitable as a sports network and commercial free music sevice--let everyone else go and focus on that. A lot of young people dont even know who Howard stern is now....

  10. #10
    James is offline
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    Howard Stern brought at most 2 million subscribers. Some of those subscribers might leave. What Howard Stern did do is help put Sirius on the map with the buzz created in the news media about his move. This brought subscribers to Sirius. Those subscribers have no loyalty to Howard and will not leave based on him leaving. Let's not forget XM had almost 10 million subscribers with no Howard Stern.

    I personally don't think Howard Stern will be leaving. He is going to have to negotiate a new contract in two years and let's face it, talking about retiring is a good negotiating tool.
    Last edited by James; 11-26-2008 at 08:45 AM.

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