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Thread: SIRI is not going bankrupt any time soon...

  1. #31
    Newman is offline
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    Its DADDY! And I don't care WHO started it.

    I AM ENDING IT!!

    **smack**

    Now go to your room.

  2. #32
    Demian is offline
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    Waaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhh!!!!!!!!

    Waaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhh!!!!!!!!

  3. #33
    Newman is offline
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    Do you want me to GIVE YOU SOMETHING TO CRY ABOUT??

  4. #34
    Demian is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Newman View Post
    Do you want me to GIVE YOU SOMETHING TO CRY ABOUT??
    I have plenty to cry about with the stock at .14.....LOL

    Seriously though, the financing can't come soon enough. Mel has said that it's coming soon. How soon is soon? Wouldn't it be great if financing of the Feb and May debt was announced all at once? It would take all this BK talk out of the picture completely.....

  5. #35
    Siriusowner is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Demian View Post
    Siriusowner,

    It sounds to me like other people "understand" the game more than you...

    At least others have studied the conference call - you say that you "missed" it. You throw numbers out there of which you are unsure - there is a big difference between 14 and 40 million. Don't be talking about BK without doing a little homework first. At least go over the conference call first.....

    There IS a big difference between wishes and facts.......and clueless ramblings too.

    I was out shooting clay when they had the conference call. There are certain things in life you just can not delay, and shooting clay was one of them.

    Now, do you want to talk with my accountant and financial advisor about the Sirius numbers ? I am sure she will give you a lecture about why buying this stock was a bad decision in the first place (although I did not buy it in the first place, my shares were converted when Sirius bought XM Radio).Then we can see who "understands" Siri's situation better.

    In regards wishes and facts, I know the difference between wishes & facts.... You WISH Sirius stock price was a whole number but the FACT is that its price is just a tiny fraction of that.

    Now, who is clueless ?

  6. #36
    Demian is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Siriusowner View Post
    I was out shooting clay when they had the conference call. There are certain things in life you just can not delay, and shooting clay was one of them.

    Now, do you want to talk with my accountant and financial advisor about the Sirius numbers ? I am sure she will give you a lecture about why buying this stock was a bad decision in the first place (although I did not buy it in the first place, my shares were converted when Sirius bought XM Radio).Then we can see who "understands" Siri's situation better.

    In regards wishes and facts, I know the difference between wishes & facts.... You WISH Sirius stock price was a whole number but the FACT is that its price is just a tiny fraction of that.

    Now, who is clueless ?
    Daddy told me not to bicker, so I will only say a couple things. With all respect, Sirius was in much better financial shape before the merger with XM. The majority of the '09 debt is XM debt - as was the debt needing to be financed at the closing of the merger. Due diligence would require being aware of the acquiring company's position also. It has been several days since the conference call took place and it has been available online in audio and text formats for review. My suggestion was to review the information available before making arguments for the possibility of bankruptcy. Of course I hope and wish the stock will go higher, but I am quite aware of the difference between where the share price is and where I have hoped it would be....

    Good luck to you and I have no ill will towards you. If you are still a holder of the stock like I am, we are all in this together trying to make sense of everything. I hope that we can all help each other to understand the facts about the company and it's position in the market.....


    I preferred the XM programming philosophy, but not their debt...


    - Here was the XM debt that came due at the merger....

    In connection with the merger and required by XM’s debt covenants, which
    considered the merger a change in ownership, XM had to refinance or obtain
    waivers on ~$1.6bn of its existing indebtedness. Refinancing actions included:

    On July 24, XM announced it would offer $778mn of new senior notes at
    89.93%, for proceeds of ~$700mn. The notes carry a 13% coupon.

    On July 25, XM announced it would increase the coupon rate on the $400mn
    of 1.75% convertible notes to 10%, retroactive to July 2, 2008.

    On July 29, XM announced it would offer $550mn of exchangeable senior
    subordinated notes due 2014. The notes are exchangeable into shares of
    SIRI at a rate of 533.3333 shares per $1,000 of principal debt, or $1.88 per
    share, and carry a 7% coupon. Assuming full conversion of these notes, the new convertible notes would be 9.5% dilutive to equity holders.

    Share borrow agreement: Sirius lent 262mn shares to the convertible
    underwriters to facilitate convertible holders’ hedging activity. Sirius receives
    no proceeds from the issuance except a nominal loan fee, and the shares
    must be returned to Sirius upon maturity or retirement of the convertible
    notes. The shares are not dilutive from an accounting perspective because
    they are loaned and must be returned to Sirius. The underwriters offered
    184mn shares at $1.50, pressuring SIRI market prices, with the remaining
    shares to be offered time to time at prevailing market prices. In DCF valuation calculations for Sirius, assume full conversion of the 7%
    convertibles, which is more dilutive (293mn shares) than the shares
    underlying the share borrow arrangement (262mn shares).


    - And here is the 783 million in XM debt due in '09......

    XM’s $250 million revolver, maturing on May 5, 2009

    XM’s $100 million term loan, maturing on May 5, 2009

    XM’s $33 million convertible discount notes, maturing on December 31,2009

    XM’s $400 million 10% convertible notes, maturing on December 1, 2009


    Comparing all of that to the 210 million in total remaining SIRI '09 debt, it seems that SIRI overpaid for XM......
    Last edited by Demian; 11-22-2008 at 02:39 AM.

  7. #37
    Demian is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Newman View Post

    Demian: About the Big 3 going bankrupt: I would not be so sure the government is going to step in, at least not in time or in the way that most people are thinking. It may end up being another case where the government steps in, but takes ownership and posetion and the shareholders get screwed. You know what happens when government takes hold of things? Not that good of a scenario...
    Newman,

    I think that GM is too big to fail. There are too many manufacturing jobs at stake and the government will not want to give more power and business to the foreign automakers. They bailed out AIG with a lot more money than what the automakers are looking for - and they are a bunch of paper pushers!

    The government is pulling a classic car salesman tactic on them - "I'm going to have to talk to my manager about that to see if it's ok".......and then they will come back with another offer.

  8. #38
    m4svt is offline
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    So it looks like Sirius will be avoiding Bankruptcy and de-listing for sometime to come. With the reverse split approved we wont be trading on pink sheets ever... And now that the authorized shares get bumped from 4.5b to 8b, sirius can issue another 4.5b shares (3.5b currently outstanding). Plus, with the automakers getting some cash they should stay around another few months at least.

    So if they were to throw in 4.5b shares in the market now (4.5b x $.116 = $522,000,000) they would have $522m based on friday's low ass close. Plus the cash they have at hand around 360m, looks like they will be able to pay off debt well into '09. They obviously don't have a lot of breathing room, but it does look like were safe for quite a bit.

    Now what's the deal with the 100m from loral? Can we still access that if we have a market cap of a billion or not since its passed dec 19th..?

  9. #39
    stang3O2 is offline
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    I dont think loral is an option anymore, but not positive. And as much as i would like to think siri could add 4.5 billion shares to the market at the current price, it is not likely. If they dilute it with twice the shares I would think the share price would drop 50% as well. but with that being said I havent sold any of my shares becuase I think they will come out ok in the long run

  10. Ad Fairy Senior Member
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