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Thread: SIRI closed at 20 cents today......your thoughts?

  1. #11
    rickand7 is offline
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    GM and company will get the money.....

    The Senate hearings are just a whole lot of covering themselves puff. They had to look tough so they look like they are really doing something smart and in the best interest in the taxpayer. Trust me, the fall out from the big 3 going BK would be so huge, think about it. Vendors all around the world would get axed. Any payable from the automaker to the vendor, well, bye bye. So, more BK vendors, laying off thousands of workers. See, the auto companies can continue to make cars but they don't have any money to pay the bills let alone whos going to ship parts to them for free? Now, autodealers are another issue. Talk about ghost automalls across America. The commercial real estate market would also take a hit, lots of square footage in plants, etc. How about the impact to the States that lose sales tax from the sale of the vehicle? I could go on with this but no need to feel any sicker, right?

    So, let the automakers down now, tag another year on to the recession. Come on lawmakers, give us some reason to buy the cars in the first place. Get us the financing, make it tax deductible (like it was once), provide some gov. incentives to buy the car, not just on the Prius, all cars, even gas guzzlers too.

  2. #12
    Siriusowner is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Demian View Post
    SIRI closed at 20 cents today......your thoughts?

    I'm disgusted...
    Heavy selling. Once again, the environment is becoming increasingly difficult & bearish. The perception from the street is not good, sadly, it is in sync with Sirius reality.

    Supports have been broken and there is nothing to stop the stock from going down to $0.00

    Do not add to the position, even if you wish to average down. We have a high probability of BK (I'd say 80%).

  3. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Siriusowner View Post
    Heavy selling. Once again, the environment is becoming increasingly difficult & bearish. The perception from the street is not good, sadly, it is in sync with Sirius reality.

    Supports have been broken and there is nothing to stop the stock from going down to $0.00

    Do not add to the position, even if you wish to average down. We have a high probability of BK (I'd say 80%).
    No chance of BK anytime soon. They couldn't go BK even if they wanted to. Next debt hurdle is not until Feb. '09 - and they have already paid a 3rd of that. S2 held today.......

    Nothing to stop the stock from going to $0.00?

    Please........

  4. #14
    Siriusowner is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Demian View Post
    No chance of BK anytime soon. They couldn't go BK even if they wanted to. Next debt hurdle is not until Feb. '09 - and they have already paid a 3rd of that. S2 held today.......

    Nothing to stop the stock from going to $0.00?

    Please........
    1.- I did not give you a time frame for BK. I just gave you a %.

    2.- Do you adjust your supports and resistances daily ? Are you day trading ? Major support was the year low and it was broken today.

    3.- Please what ? What is stopping the stock from going to $0.00 ? The company fundamentals ? Please.....

    The truth of the fact is that loving a company does not make its stock a good investment.
    Last edited by Siriusowner; 11-18-2008 at 10:30 PM.

  5. #15
    sxminvestor is offline
    Quote Originally Posted by Siriusowner View Post
    1.- I did not give you a time frame for BK. I just gave you a %.

    2.- Do you adjust your supports and resistances daily ? Are you day trading ? Major support was the year low and it was broken today.

    3.- Please what ? What is stopping the stock from going to $0.00 ? The company fundamentals ? Please.....

    The truth of the fact is that loving a company does not make its stock a good investment.
    News will come out in the next few days that they are continuing to sell boatloads of shares to cut down the Feb debt. They need about 650M by April for the Feb + May debt. At 20 cents, they need to sell 3 billion shares without going into cash. They asked the shares to be almost doubled to 8.5 billion, so they will continue to sell shares for debt because nobody will likely give them a term-loan in this atmosphere.

    Hate to say it, but it's the only way to stave off bankruptcy. Even with a miracle term loan, big trouble is looming with car sales & loans & we could end up being in the 8 million cars sold range in 2009. Sirius will have a hard time increasing revenue next year at this level and being cash flow positive.

    I feel this stock is headed for 10 cents and a at least 7.5 billion shares and then a 1:50 reverse split.

    Incredible product though - what a shame what the FCC did, how Hartlieb helped with the delay and what a perfect storm hitting right now in the US and the world. We're close to depression people, so I would not add any more because you are jus pissing away your $.

    And believe me, I want to load up big under 20 cents, but playing super lotto might be easier to hit or less risky. At least Lotto is just $1. I would want to buy 100k shares or more, but ZERO confidence because of my feelings above.

  6. #16
    Siriusowner is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by sxminvestor View Post
    News will come out in the next few days that they are continuing to sell boatloads of shares to cut down the Feb debt. They need about 650M by April for the Feb + May debt. At 20 cents, they need to sell 3 billion shares without going into cash. They asked the shares to be almost doubled to 8.5 billion, so they will continue to sell shares for debt because nobody will likely give them a term-loan in this atmosphere.

    Hate to say it, but it's the only way to stave off bankruptcy. Even with a miracle term loan, big trouble is looming with car sales & loans & we could end up being in the 8 million cars sold range in 2009. Sirius will have a hard time increasing revenue next year at this level and being cash flow positive.

    I feel this stock is headed for 10 cents and a at least 7.5 billion shares and then a 1:50 reverse split.

    Incredible product though - what a shame what the FCC did, how Hartlieb helped with the delay and what a perfect storm hitting right now in the US and the world. We're close to depression people, so I would not add any more because you are jus pissing away your $.

    And believe me, I want to load up big under 20 cents, but playing super lotto might be easier to hit or less risky. At least Lotto is just $1. I would want to buy 100k shares or more, but ZERO confidence because of my feelings above.


    Right on the money:

    Morningstar Valuation -

    We've lowered our fair value estimate for the combined company to $0.20 from $0.50 after accounting for the company's limited refinancing options for more than $1 billion in debt coming due in 2009. Given the restrictive conditions in the credit markets, we think there exists a 75% chance that Sirius XM will be unable to successfully refinance part or all of its debt coming due. Should this occur, we think the company would turn to the equity markets, resulting in substantial incremental dilution to existing shareholders, and a fair value estimate of $0. If the company is somehow able to navigate its current financial situation, to which we assign a 25% likelihood, we think the shares could be worth $1. Our estimate does not account for the effects of a possible reverse split. Our discounted cash-flow model assumes that Sirius will achieve about 11% average annual revenue growth during the next 10 years. Our fair value estimate and sales projections are predicated on total satellite subscribers reaching 40 million in 2017, up from 18 million today. The majority of the cash flows that form the basis of our valuation occur more than 10 years into the future. Our fair value uncertainty rating is very high, given the firm's unproven business model and substantial debt burden.

    Fair Value: .20

    Consider buying: .10

    Consider selling: .50

    Stock is not an investment candidate. Consider for speculation only.

  7. #17
    Demian is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Siriusowner View Post
    Right on the money:

    Morningstar Valuation -

    We've lowered our fair value estimate for the combined company to $0.20 from $0.50 after accounting for the company's limited refinancing options for more than $1 billion in debt coming due in 2009. Given the restrictive conditions in the credit markets, we think there exists a 75% chance that Sirius XM will be unable to successfully refinance part or all of its debt coming due. Should this occur, we think the company would turn to the equity markets, resulting in substantial incremental dilution to existing shareholders, and a fair value estimate of $0. If the company is somehow able to navigate its current financial situation, to which we assign a 25% likelihood, we think the shares could be worth $1. Our estimate does not account for the effects of a possible reverse split. Our discounted cash-flow model assumes that Sirius will achieve about 11% average annual revenue growth during the next 10 years. Our fair value estimate and sales projections are predicated on total satellite subscribers reaching 40 million in 2017, up from 18 million today. The majority of the cash flows that form the basis of our valuation occur more than 10 years into the future. Our fair value uncertainty rating is very high, given the firm's unproven business model and substantial debt burden.

    Fair Value: .20

    Consider buying: .10

    Consider selling: .50

    Stock is not an investment candidate. Consider for speculation only.
    Do you have a link for that?

  8. #18
    Siriusowner is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Demian View Post
    Do you have a link for that?
    I have the 9 page report but it is 279 kb which exceeds the forum limit.

    Morningstar is offering a trial until 11/21, you will have to register:

    http://quicktake.morningstar.com/Sto...SA&Symbol=SIRI

  9. #19
    Demian is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by Siriusowner View Post

    The truth of the fact is that loving a company does not make its stock a good investment.
    I didn't know that.............are you sure?

  10. #20
    Newman is offline
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    The fact of the matter remains that a company has to exhaust all sources of financing in order to delare bankruptcy. That means exhausting their cash supply. This means that there is no way for the comapny to claim BK until after february.

    My honest feeling is that if Mel were to come out tommorrow and say that Sirius will use cash on hand to pay off the February debt without further dilution, the share price would jump, possibly 50%. That would take us to about 0.31 per share, which would give us a market cap of over 1 billion, and then they could draw the 100 million dollar line of credit with loral and give them opperating money for the first half of 2009. This again would show that the company is solvent, for at least a little while, bringing share prices back up. If the company had to further dilute, at least the share price would be higher and they would not have to dilute as much.

    Here is to hoping...

  11. Ad Fairy Senior Member
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