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Thread: Various Q3 Sub metrics

  1. #1
    homer985 is offline
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    Various Q3 Sub metrics

    From the latest 10-Q filings:


    Total NET adds: 344,081
    XM NET adds: 243,381
    Sirius NET adds: 100,700

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    Total GROSS adds: 1,846,996
    XM GROSS adds: 1,045,560
    Sirius GROSS adds: 801,436

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    Total Deactivations: 1,502,915
    XM deactivations: 802,179
    Sirius deactivations: 700,736

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    All-in churn combined: 2.67%
    XM all-in churn: 2.73%
    Sirius all-in churn: 2.61%


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  2. #2
    homer985 is offline
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    I don't have time to fully digest the Quarterly Reports... but a couple other observations that jumped out at me besides the subscriber data...


    First, the question keeps coming up about what the take rate was on the Tender offers... well, it was pretty much all of it. From the XM report:

    repurchased 99% of its 9.75% Senior Notes due 2014 at 101%, plus $18,685 in accrued interest. The tender offer for the 9.75% Senior
    Notes due 2014 included a consent solicitation to amend the indenture governing the 9.75% Senior Notes due 2014;

    repurchase 100% of its Senior Floating Rate Notes due 2013 at par, plus $1,501 in accrued interest; and

    satisfy its $309,373 transponder repurchase obligation, for both debt and equity holders of a previously consolidated variable interest
    entity. Our debt repurchase obligation included a 1% of principal prepayment penalty and $6,668 in accrued interest.



    There were $600 million worth of 9.75% Senior Notes due 2014; there were $200 million worth of Senior Floating Rate Notes due 2013; and then the transponder buyback.

    So they issued $1.25 billion in new notes when the merger closed -- and spent $1.124 billion of that on the refinancing. So this left them with an extra $125.7 million remaining, which would go into cash/equivolents and available to be spent on their negative cashflow.


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  3. #3
    homer985 is offline
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    The other noteworth observation was the allocation of the XM FCC license. As I have discussed often, in the Pro Forma document from early August, the value of the license was revalued at $1.3 billion (up from about $141 million).

    Well here in the 10-Q, the actual estimate came in at $2 billion... that's a big jump, and I believe warranted as I thought $1.3 billion was too low. I always felt that $2 billion would be appropriate for licenses for 12.5MHz of spectrum... keeping in mind that the 700MHz band sold for about $2.5 billion for an equivolent amount of un-built out spectrum. So now we're getting to a more appropriate value for the bandwidth. Although, the Sirius license is still valued at $83 million on the books.

    When re-estimating the figures for my "adjusted stockholders equity" that I use, (however unconventional it is)... I arrive at a new book value of about $0.46/share...

    Total assets -- $7,503,074,000
    Minus, "Intangible assets" -- 694,212,000
    Minus, "Goodwill" -- 1,875,645,000
    Plus, "adjustment of the Sirius license to Fair value ($2 billion)" -- 1,916,346,000
    -----------------------------------------
    Adjusted total assets = $6,849,563,000

    Total liabilities -- $7,487,325,000
    Minus, "Deferred revenue" -- 1,168,777,000
    Minus, "Deferred credit" -- 1,091,599,000
    ------------------------------------------
    Adjusted Total liabilities -- $5,226,949,000


    Stockholder equity -- $1,622,614,000

    Total shares (common and preferred) - 3,538,208,974

    Equity per share - $0.4585


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  4. #4
    SiriusHope is offline
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    Homer
    Thanks for doing the homework.

    So in your opinion how does it all look for the near future for SIRI stockholders?

  5. #5
    Siriusowner is offline
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    Quote Originally Posted by SiriusHope View Post
    Homer
    Thanks for doing the homework.

    So in your opinion how does it all look for the near future for SIRI stockholders?
    The future is gloomy for everyone. Fortunately, there's tomorrow...

    Ok, back to this.

    46 cents is not the true book value.

    Stockholder equity is: 7,503,074,000 (assets) - 7,487,325,000 (liabilities) = 15,749,000

    Divide that by the more than 3.5 Billion shares outstanding = 4.48 cents. That is the stock book value (the one the analysts look at). The stock is trading @ 5X its book value.

    Listen, I do not want to be the grinch but I would like to open everyone's eyes. This company is worthless....

    ....However, I think it has growth potential (This is why the stock is trading @ 5X its book value, there are lots of investors out there that think the same way and think 25 cents is cheap). Unfortunately the economy does not help.... and it will not help for a while.

  6. #6
    homer985 is offline
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    First, your estimate is incorrect because you didn't remove intangibles and goodwill... that is if you want to keep it completely accurate for what is defined as "Book Value" -- which is assets minus liabilities and minus intangibles....

    Second, I noted that my estimate was an "adjusted" figure... that is because the liabilities of this company are deceiving. Because they are carrying nearly $1.2 billion in deferred revenue and an additional $1.1 billion in deferred credit. Neither of those are cash obligations and neither of which would become creditors in a Chapter 11 proceeding.

    My "adjusted" figure is assuming the company goes Chapter 11 -- in which case, the court would not remove deferred revenue and defered credit from liabilities -- as long as the company stays in business. Second, the court would assess the current fair value of all assets -- removing items such as goodwill, and placing some value on intangibles. Part of that process would be to value the Sirius license appropriately -- which would increase the assets by the amount I noted above.

    In the end, my $0.46/share figure is assuming bankruptcy and what would be remaining. If you disagree with that statement, then please support your numbers as I have.

    TIA


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  7. #7
    APEXSPORTS is offline
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    YEA I WAS DOING SOME FIGS MYSELF.. .45$ IS ITS REAL VALUE.. AND WE ARE .25$ THE MARKET IS KILLING EVERYONE. BUT WE GET DEBT REFINANCED AND PAYED DOWN/OFF AND MAKING MONEY WE CAN BE 5-6 A SHARE , WITH THE 1.4 BILLION + CASH FLOW THEY PREDICT..

  8. #8
    Siriusowner is offline
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    Definition of Book Value

    This is simply the company's most recent quarter net worth divided by the latest shares outstanding. Often of interest to value investors, the book value per share ratio is an expression of how much in actual value would be left for each share if the company went out of business. This figure can be especially noteworthy when considering a turnaround situation. Sometimes a firm's stock is so beaten down that shares are trading at or below book value, implying a real bargain (or that its balance sheet overstates its assets). In such circumstances, a look at cash and marketable securities per share can help. Book value per share is not to be confused with "break-up value," which attempts to determine what the parts of a company might be worth if sold off. This figure is usually higher than book value.

    Do not take me wrong, I hope the stock recovers, I just take the book value as per the definition above. Your figure is more realistic when considering chapter 11 though since it breaks up the parts of the company.
    Last edited by Siriusowner; 11-13-2008 at 10:28 AM.

  9. #9
    homer985 is offline
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    Fair enough, but that was kinda what I was going for... because it is my opinion that the stock is priced for bankruptcy by the street currently -- thus I've been trying to come up with a price for the shares, should that occur.

    With the stock this far below that price, I believe that it is very much underpriced -- especialy if the maturing debt is refinanced.


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  10. #10
    APEXSPORTS is offline
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    AS WE START TO BOUNCE WITH A LITTLE SUPPORT HERE IS SOME NEWS TO LIGHTEN UP YOUR DAY.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J5z4V...eature=related

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