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  1. Replies
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    SIRI estimates (barely beat the deadline this...

    SIRI estimates (barely beat the deadline this time around!). Good luck to everyone on Thursday.

    Q4 2014 / YTD 2014

    Adjusted EBITA - 375M / 1.462B
    Free Cash Flow - 340M / 1.165B
    Revenues -...
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    I would never say never. If there isn't a...

    I would never say never. If there isn't a controlling shareholder of SIRI anymore, anything is possible.
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    Add me in for $3.95....

    Add me in for $3.95....
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    [QUOTE=MUSCLE13;87523] When I do a full EV...

    When I do a full EV analysis for 2015, I'll come up with my own FCF and EBITDA estimates which will be higher than this. Will post this up when I get around to it in the next couple of weeks. I...
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    [QUOTE=MUSCLE13;87518] I'm using SIRI's...

    I'm using SIRI's numbers for now - I know they are low-balled but I like to be more conservative in my PPS estimates. And this is a year-end estimate, not what the actual EV should be. I'll do that...
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    [QUOTE=dm_4;87511]Last hour to get your picks in...

    I'll give it a shot... let's say 5B shares outstanding at year-end 2015, 1.25B FCF is $0.25/share X 20 multiple = $5. That would be my high-end. Low end I would say 14 multiple = $3.50... let's...
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    I personally held SIRI for approx. 5 to 7 years...

    I personally held SIRI for approx. 5 to 7 years until last January after the Liberty announcement. IMO until we get complete clarity from Liberty on how it will (most likely) be combined/merged into...
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    The company also issued 2015 guidance for net...

    The company also issued 2015 guidance for net subscriber additions, revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and free cash flow:
    •Net subscriber additions of approximately 1.2 million,
    •Revenue of approximately...
  9. Replies
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    Hey Muscle, I haven't been as involved with the...

    Hey Muscle, I haven't been as involved with the stock market since I started my outsourced accounting firm so I cannot speak with 100% certainty on this. But I have liked Comcast/TWC and SIRI. ...
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    i was worried either one quarter... q3 or q4...

    i was worried either one quarter... q3 or q4 wouldnt be good. but that was solely based on guidance. we all know they lowball guidance but in the past it hasnt been insanely off but they typically...
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    It's going to be a great day when those...

    It's going to be a great day when those convertible bonds are finally gone from the books, regardless of stock price action up or down. This is last piece of "toxic" financing from the merger and...
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    That would be perfectly fine with me if I'm wrong...

    That would be perfectly fine with me if I'm wrong again lol.
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    Hey guys, haven't been posting much, just lurking...

    Hey guys, haven't been posting much, just lurking and reading everyone's posts. Congrats to those with all the good trades. I just wanted to post up a quick analysis for you guys - it's nothing...
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    You can always buy some call options to "cover"...

    You can always buy some call options to "cover" yourself after a sale. My personal strategy at the time of the initial "merger" announcement back in January was to sell and buy options. My thought...
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    I was reading the 10Q today on my phone, Denco...

    I was reading the 10Q today on my phone, Denco and that was exact react - tricky bastards. I guess we should be expecting this same type of contract for the next 2B. SXM is going to have a great...
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    I'm thinking Liberty takes SIRI to 4.5x. I...

    I'm thinking Liberty takes SIRI to 4.5x. I believe the calculation is based on the TTM of EBITDA also. But I think by next January/February, the debt load will be up to around $6.4B (1.425B x 4.5)....
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    Hey guys, haven't done a ton of posting lately,...

    Hey guys, haven't done a ton of posting lately, just be lurking around keeping up with all your great trades - congratulations to everyone here.

    Anyway, attached are my Q2 2014 estimates. It...
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    This is a tough one, but my guess is $3.26.

    This is a tough one, but my guess is $3.26.
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    Not sure what I wrote didn't go through, but...

    Not sure what I wrote didn't go through, but great call Denco. I like that they are being aggressive and doing $1.5B now and getting the debt/EBITDA ratio up to 4 quickly....
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    View Post

    Damn......sometimes you just get lucky.....WOW

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/sirius-xm-radio-inc-prices-202300951.html


    there we go, $1.5B is more like it!


    Looks like they're not Fng...
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    Looks like SIRI drew down $420M from the revolver...

    Looks like SIRI drew down $420M from the revolver after Q1 to finance the $340M Liberty buyback and plus $80M of other buybacks. I believe at the end of Q1, the outstanding balance on the revolver...
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    That wouldn't be a bad idea. Thinking about it...

    That wouldn't be a bad idea. Thinking about it more it's like buying back 270M shares for $750M or $2.77/share. Don't know if the bond holders would go for it though....
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    Attached is a comparison of my estimates vs....

    Attached is a comparison of my estimates vs. actual numbers. Wasn't as close on the key numbers as I usually am but now that the GM deal impact has gone through 2 quarters, figuring out the line...
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    100% agree with you. Based on what has been told...

    100% agree with you. Based on what has been told to us, continue levering of the balance sheet and subsequent buybacks are the logical steps coming soon. Liberty's conference call is on the 8th I...
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    Bond offering has to be coming soon. Based on a...

    Bond offering has to be coming soon. Based on a leverage target of 4x EBTIDA/debt and current gross debt at $3.462B, SIRI has capacity of $1.49B of debt based on the last 4 quarters of adjusted...
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