I really have been doing a lot of thinking about this. There are a lot of articles about this offer of $3.68 being too low(i agree it is too low) and he will be forced to offer higher. However, just like he did before, his hedge fund buddies can depress the stock price and slowly but surely the sells will begin. He has the money and ability to make us take $3.68 and love it. I just think our hopes of anything more than the $3.80's is moot. Don't get me wrong, I think there will be a little short covering come tomorrow and Tuesday, but the market makers will keep it in check. My personal strategy is to sell remaining shares if it does by some chance jump to $4 and buyback when the dust settles. Just my personal strategy.
This was taken from the Liberty filing:
On January 3, 2014, Liberty made a proposal to the Issuer (the “Proposal Letter”), outlining the terms by which the Issuer’s shareholders, other than Liberty and its subsidiaries, would become direct shareholders of Liberty in a tax-free transaction in which each share of the Issuer’s Common Stock, other than those held by Liberty and its subsidiaries, would be converted into 0.0760 of a share of a new Liberty Series C non-voting common stock. Immediately prior to such conversion, Liberty intends to distribute, on a 2:1 basis, shares of Liberty Series C common stock to all holders of record of Liberty Series A Common Stock, par value $0.01 per share, and Series B Common Stock, par value $0.01 per share, to create a liquid trading market for the Liberty Series C common stock. The 0.0760 exchange ratio is equivalent to a 0.0253 exchange ratio prior to the distribution of the Series C common stock dividend.
The ratio was .0253 before they do the 2:1 basis for Liberty. Based upon Friday's closing price, that was $145.33 which equated to 3.676849.
What would have been more palatable would have have been a .0253 pre or a .0760 of Liberty's 52 week high of $159.33. This would have been about $4.031049
So, the question is this? Do you think Liberty will make it back to that 52 week high in short order, will it languish here, or will it go lower. This is the true question that you must answer.
If it makes it back to $159.33, then we will be rewarded with a .35 increase per post share swap at the .0253.
I guess, we all need to do our research on liberty and see what the analyst are projecting.
Here I made it easy for you, per Yahoo!
Price Target Summary
Mean Target: 157.60
Median Target: 158.50
High Target: 182.00
Low Target: 130.00
No. of Brokers: 10
So, if you throw out the high and the low, and you look at the median and the mean. The upside looks to be $158.50, at .0253, our possible upside is $4.01005.
I wonder wen these were updated because Liberty hit a high of $159.33 recently before retreating.
Maybe a technical analysis from somebody like Limit on where it looks like Liberty is heading and a P & F from Denco on Liberty would help.
Sorry for being so long winded, just wanted thro some stuff out there while it was fresh on my mind.
Once we become part of MaloneCo we are part of the MaloneCo/LMCA umbrella. MaloneCo looks after its own shareholders. Even if we were spun out a few years down the road, the track record of a spinout is positive. Just look at the 1 year chart of STRZA to see the positive affects of a spin out to UNLOCK value. Ultimately I will be comfortable with MaloneCo in charge....BUT the 3.68 is a NOGO....they need to show the SIRI REET some respect.....and that starts with a $4 handle and change.
EDIT: I'll get a P&F up tomorrow from the office PJ...don't have the ability to copy and post from this computer.
Tks for the input.
Then a .0275 ratio would be needed to get us $4.00 at the current closing price of $145.33
What we all should hope is that Liberty share price does not go any lower than Friday's close, therefore, continuing the $3.68 floor and that it appreciates from here. Either the Liberty share price continues increasing through the deal being finalized and/or Liberty increases the ratio.
Thanks for the breakdown...I agree...Liberty has the ability to do with us what they will...I dont like it...but it is reality...I do agree with Denco as well...Malone has a track record of taking care of his own!!! Both the Starz and Direct TV spin offs turned out well for the shareholders...I have no problem being under Malones umbrella...would like to see alittle bit more of a premium!!!
Had a crazy dream last night...woke up about 3am all excited because my sell order had not gone thru eventhough the sp had busted thru $8 on a massive short squeeze...it took me several minutes to realize that I was dreaming...went back to sleep bummed...it was only a dream!!!
If Malone and Co had put a higher premium like .40-.50 per share...I think the MM would have been unable to keep the sp in check and we would have seen a massive short squeeze!!
Any thoughts on sp movement for tomorrow...I think we see a pretty good pop pre-market...not sure where we head after that!!
I think in the long run a conversion might bode well. I think short term there can be some money made. I would love for a pop to $4, then reenter lower before deal is finalized. If your $8 dream came through, i'd have to clean my britches.