Some Sirius thoughts...
So, like most who would read a post here, I am upset over the PPS of Sirius, but even more confused why there is no boost at all. I get the debt refinancing, the $400 million in synergies, blah, blah. Here are my thoughts, for what they are worth.
First, I think that Sirius needs to have more organic growth in content. Now with having every major sports under the Sirius umbrella, develop some type of 'Sportscenter' that can grow as Sirius' own brand. As a new media company, I think that would be a good direction to go. Of course they market Stern in this way, but they need to go further. I know that Siri couldn't look at XMSR's books pre-merger approval; however, Mel, et al, should have had ideas bouncing around. Hopefully very soon we will see these come to light.
Next, what if Siri were taken private by an equity group? Please, hear me out. I am aware from other boards that people throw out names of companies they think would buy Siri (i.e. MSFT, GOOG, etc.). I am not going there. Rather, and this is all just hypothetical, a company such as AINV (or another like it) could set a price for Siri, say between $3-5/share. Wouldn't this help by forcing shorts to cover and driving the price perhaps even higher? But, and maybe more importantly, wouldn't this allow Siri the time to get itself in order--develop the best new products (either on own or partner with another party) and create a mad media blitz. My point of all of this is that I believe this would help Siri (both company and shareholder) in the near term, and if I'm correct, would flush out the trash (shorts/certain hedge funds) to enable Siri to have a more 'fair' environment to grow (PPS, that is).
I am sorry if this rambled. I'd be interested in your thoughts. Thanks.
My problem with taking the comapny private is that You and I loose all interests in the company. For a small pitance of what the company could be worth. Sure, a pop to $5 from where it is at would be nice, but I think 3-5 years down the road, you will see it at these levels and higher. Is the instant pop worth the potential loss of everything else?
I do not think it is, and I for one would vote my shares against this.
I agree Newman, I would vote against any kind of merger, takeover, buy out. The reason is just as you said. I did not get in for a few dollars I invested for the chance at the big money. If I wanted that I would of sold the rest of my shares at 9 and not started buying back at 4. I also think that would be a hard sell to many. The XMSR merger was one thing, this would be totally another thing altogether.
Unfortunately, with such a high amount of institutional ownership -- combined with the current debt/credit holders -- you may not have any say in it.
As I have learned, at the time... it was XM's debt holders that put pressure on XM's Board to consider Karmazin's offer to merge. Sure it is likely needed at this point -- but at the time, there were plenty of us XM holders that were against it. Hindsight is obviously 20/20... but the point is, if the debt holders and institution holders of the equity are all for a go private LBO -- then you and I will have little to say about it. With the institutions holding more than 50% and the debt holder basically controlling this company -- they will force a takeover at $5 easy.
Let's be realistic here and consider the previous 8 years...
Whether or not too support a deal would depend on who was buying, how much and whether it was a cash or stock deal. A Google or Microsoft would not be welcome since I feel that they are overpriced. A dying media company, with the exception of News Corp (Fox), would not be welcome either. Personally, I wouldn't mind it if a Verizon or AT&T bought the company (at a premium with stock) after it's turned around. I think that would be a good deal for them since cell phones are rapidly becoming streaming media devices. T & VZ are good values and pay decent dividends.
LOL. I was just thinking about an all stock deal for a Google/Sirius combination.
I give 100,000 shares of Sirius and in exchange I get 100 shares of Google. lol
I owned 300 shares of Countrywide, that I paid $4.97 per share. Bank of America was going to pay $5.50 per share in a merger agreement, then reneged and ended up paying around $3.60 per share. I ended up with 52 shares of BAC. Tons of really horrible news came and BAC started to go south to the $18+ range. I bailed out as it came back up to the low $20's. Within three days BAC climbed to $35.00 then settled in the low 30's. If I dump my SIRI position, SIRI will skyrocket.
My point is that mergers and price agreements can change to the detriment of shareholders. It would be easy perhaps for Mel to strike a deal for the sale of SIRI at $5 per share. That would be just OK, AFAIC. If the buyer reneged and a new lower price were agreed to by the prinicipals, that would not be so good.
Institutions/shorts want to kill the little guys and get their shares as cheaply as possible. SIRI Margin call sell offs should mostly be over by Friday, though there may be some stragglers next week.
This discussion is probably a moot point. However in all honesty I would bet my life that their would be little opposition to this company being bought out at 5 dollars a share. There would be maybe 1% opposition. In fact I do not think there would be any resistance with an offer above 2.50. But realistically companies just don't offer those kind of premiums. 350% premiums I don't think so. Look at BUD being bought out by InBev the premium. It was what a 20 or 30% premium. It was America's iconic brand, and it got bought out with about 1 pound of resistance. At the whisper of a rumor institutions and retailers alike would buy in and drive up the price close to the rumored buyout, we would vote and thats all she wrote.
Frankly though this is all a dream, and if a buyout does happen it won't be until we are profitable. Mel just wouldn't want to sell and noone would want to buy until then.
I agree and this is my greatest fear. That is why is was so important to stop the shame class action. I do not think Mel or Leon has the common shareholders interest in mind? I know that they tried to screw us in court! It was their insurance policy.
I hold some AINV and I dont think they are in any position to buy anything even though they say they are. SIRIXM is not a company they are looking for in my opinion.