Potential PR Timeline
I know with the share price in the toilet since Monday it seems like time has come to a screeching halt, but let's not forget the time-line here. The merger wasn't completed until Monday, and even through tomorrow, there are still XM shareholders without access to their funds. Mel has already appeared on CNBC and stopped in on two of the major talk shows on the satellite network.
In the next couple of weeks I expect to see plenty of news coming from Mel. The combined company has a lot to sort through, including issuing some sort of guidance, and getting to work immediately at combining the two operations, consolidating content, implementing new cost packages, etc. As the dust settles I expect to see a steady flow of PR's on the way.
Anyone care to speculate on how fast they will issue some forward guidance? (besides Mel's comments on CNBC)
AOL has the Sirius earnings call scheduled for 6PM today. Is that right? I haven't seen it confirmed anywhere else.
On the website you reference, the call they list for 6 pm today is listed under previous events, not current or future. Perhaps the date is a coincidental typo? On the Sirius.com website, the investors section has no mention of a call either tonight or at any other time.
Good catch, didn't see that. That would explain why its not picked up anywhere else.
I think you are right to be calm about the absence of a public PR blitz these last few days. I agree with you. In fact, a big flurry right now might be seen as intentionally staged to cover up the lack of current price appreciation, rather than as touting new stuff that doesn't yet exist. This reminds me of a stockholders meeting I once attended for another company (which bombed as a public company, was taken over, made private, and is now successful as a private company). People in the audience were angry at what management was doing. I asked one of the big shots why the company did not just do a series of press releases of information, even when there were no major things ready to announce. His answer was that if they did that, the investing public would grow tired of it and not react positively. I saw his reasoning, and agree with it.
With regard to Sirius XM, I personally would rather have the company wait a little bit of time until their eggs are more in a row, and then hit investors and the consuming public with really important stuff. Not fluff, not "we are hopefull" or "the company foresees" type announcements, but announcements like "You can get Howard Stern, Baseball, Football, Hockey, and more great music than you could ever listen to in a lifetime on EITHER Sirius or XM - AVAILABLE NOW!!! So folks, now is the time to buy the radios, subscibe to either service and buy the stock."
I can't believe the number of "investors" who want everything done yesterday. It's not Mel's fault the FCC pulled on everyone's chain and left us all with our tongues hanging out. Mel is a workaholic who is driven to "success." I once went to a lecture he gave. He said he once let himself be talked into going to Europe by his wife. They spent two weeks there, and when he came back he said he tore up his passport. He said he does not like to take vacations. He said he loves to work. I am sure he is working hard now; I'm sure he wants the stock price higher; I'm sure he wants to make Sirius XM as dynamic and as omnipresent as possible.
Steve, that is a good point.
I think another thing to remember is that Sirius just lent out a lot of shares to short. Those shares still havent fully made their way to the market yet. A PR blitz now would only have the effect of keeping the PPS relatively stable as opposed to the slight decline type trades that we are seeing today. Perhaps after the PPS stabilizes, the PR blitz will have a positive affect as opposed to just the stabilizing affect.
As far as getting out into the public, sure CNBC got him on right away, but of course, he was able to get on to Stern and O&A because HE RUNS THEM. Most other shows have schedules. People like Letterman and Leno cant throw someone on the show in the last second. If anything, they just started making these appearance schedules over the past couple days, and you may see Mel start hitting the public airwaves next week.
Thanks. You make good points, too! Another factor I think is that Letterman and other talk shows will have Mel on once each, and only once. If he goes on now and talks about the "future" of Sirius XM or its "potential" that will be nice, and may drive the stock price slightly, but that will be all the benefit achieved. However, if Mel waits until great programming can be gotten on both Sirius or XM, and it is after the summer lull (and perhaps into the holiday and back to work/school buying time in September), the announcement of enhanced program offerings will likely drive radio sales and subscriptions. Those, in turn, will drive profits, which in turn should help the stock price. I would love to hear a talk show host announce "We have been trying to get Mel Karmazin on our show for awhile, but he has been so busy ramping up the expanded offerings of his company Sirius, that this is the earliest we could get him. Tell us Mel, is it true that over 20 million Americans can now get Howard Stern, Baseball, Football and over a hundred music stations on any satellite radio they have?" I, for one, would rather Mel wait to go on talk shows for his one grand appearance per talk show to maximize his presence.
The only problem that I see with the "Grand Appearance" theory is that if it is truely a grand appearance as you are stating, Interop Radios would have to have a launch date set in stone already. Then, Mel could answer that question with, "Thats Right (Jay, David, Howard, etc), Starting November 1st, we will be launching one of the biggest advertisement campaigns in Satellite Radio History with the release of the first interopperable radio, named the Terrestrial Killer. The Terrestrial Killer will feature service from both Sirius and XM Satellite Radio, a CD player, as well as an iPod jack and WiFi capabilities. The only features lacking on this radio is the ability to tune to regular AM/FM radio, or HD radio."
I think that would be sweet justice. =)
Agreed with your points, plus the stock is being bounced around a little during the early going probably because of margin calls. I expect we'll start seeing some heavy PR once we get some real news about the company's direction, so they can both move the stock.
We'll hear from Mel, Howard, and hopefully even Opie & Anthony soon .. (okay, the last one is a big maybe).
haha Terrestrial Radio Killer... it has a nice ring to it
Along the same lines, we probably won't see any significant commercial until they have definite services to offer, definite alacarte options, and ways of simulcasting Howard or whatever is coming down the pipeline.
I just hope when the commercials hit it is something that grabs the eye and gets people talking either because it is clever, funny, or just awesome.
"Did you see the Sirius commercial the other thing?!?"