July -> September
Cramer's assertion that if it fails to come together by the end of June, that it will be pushed until September seems kind of arbitrary to me. It pretty much goes against the analyst opinions and speculation that an answer will be coming in July. And he gives no real procedural reason.
I think it's kind of rediculous to speculate that just because they can't get it together by today, that it can't come in this week or, the next, or the next for that matter.
And I don't buy the idea that they would intentionally delay this out to September if that is what he was trying to insinuate. There's already been enough press regarding the amount of time its been with them, I don't think they would get away with such a delay without drawing a lot of attention to their (lack of) actions. And everyday that goes by, its going to become more and more of a pressing issue.
Plus, I hear a lot on both sides regarding the finances of both companies. Is it even in the realm of possibility for one to file bankruptcy by September or is Cramer just talking out of his ass again. I know they aren't exactly healthy, but I was under the impression that they have legs to get into 2009 at the very least.
They do, and Cramer is being dramatic.
I do not see thing thing going all the way to September. I have predicted that the thing will be over by July 11th. The draft has circulated, and typically, the deal is over and done with within 3-4 weeks after the draft. There may be one commissioner who is on the fence (Tate) and she may delay her vote until she has finished up any meetings that she already had scheduled, which I would assume would be over this week or next. After that is done, there is a 2 week window for the remaining commissioners to cast their vote. Even if they do not, the vote closes 2 weeks from the monday after the 3rd vote is cast in favor or against. If Tate casts her vote this week, that would be 2 weeks from the 7th, which would put us all the way to the 21st. But typically, the 2 week time limit is never utilized, and the other two commissioners will vote against and give their decenting press release at the same time. In my opinion, the Dems are just giving their legal time a chance to type up the decent before they cast their votes and the thing will be over by NEXT friday (11th).
Again, my opinion.
That would be nice. But didn't I see things on the "in circulation" list that had been there over two years?
Originally Posted by Newman
I'm sure you all watched the video. I think some of he's arguments and reasoning were a bit off base. Almost put him on my "convicted sell" list for doing that segment. :D
While I lost faith in the FCC a while back, pushing this decision past July might get them, well, think along the lines of "British tax collectors during the revolutionary war".
Anyone think we could get a single vote in favor at all this week or do you guys think they will all abstain 'till the last possible minute?
I don't know that we will get leaks from the FCC staff regarding the voting process until it is over. It would be nice though.
Well I was just under the impression that the commissioners could vote at anytime, independently of each other, but I could be wrong about that, wasn't sure if those votes would be disclosed as they happened or not. Can't get a confirmation on how that works.
Just can't believe that none of these gutless wonders (a.k.a. spineless jellyfishes) have had the b@lls to vote yet.
It does seem their lips are locked up tight.
Yeah they can vote independently of each other. But I had the same question about the public disclosuring of the voting process (I think somewhere on this forum) and someone said that there is no official press release generally, but somehow the staffs tends to leak their individual decisions.
Personally, I think (hope) Martin and McDowell have already voted.
There was a post somewhere on how it worked, but I need to get to work, so dont have time to look.
Martin makes his recommendation and circulates the order. It gets placed on an internal voting computer mechanism. The commissioners can vote at their leisure.
As soon as an order gets 3 votes one way or the other, a 2 week clock starts the following Monday. (If 3 votes registered today, the clock would start on the 7th, giving 2 weeks = the 21st) During this 2 week clock, the remaining commissioners can either vote or not. If they do not vote, then their vote is an abstention.
If the remaining commissioners vote, then the vote is concluded and results are announced. If they do not vote, it continues to the end of the clock. This allows the commissioners to prepare their statements when the order is released and announced. The votes are never officially released until the order is announced, though historically a commissioner's lacky will sometimes leak the fact that the commissioner voted one way or the other.
What I am surprised about is the fact that Copps has not leaked his negative vote yet. That one is a given, and I expect it this week. I would also expect McDowell to vote this week in favor of the merger.
The other two mergers can go either way: Adelstein can come out against the vote in order to put pressure on Tate (the swing vote) or Tate can announce first, taking the pressure off of Adelstien and allowing him to vote his conscience. (Adelstien and Tate have both been very vocal about being in favor of the consumer, and with as much consumer filings there have been, it would be difficult to really say that a no vote was "pro consumer").
So, in conclusion, I expect we will hear about at least ONE vote this week, but that one will be a negative vote. We might get 2, and the second would be a positive vote. The other two I am confident will come next week, and we will have our report and order on or by the 11th of July.
Thanks for the explanations guys. That "internal voting computer mechanism" bit is what I was after, hadn't come across that info before. Pretty lame that we have to be at the mercy of the commissioner's lackys to get an idea of what's going on :annoyed: but it is what it is.
Newman, I get what you are saying about Copps, he's been so against this from the very beginning. I was hoping we'd get a pro vote from McDowell first, just for emotional support if nothing else.
Que sera, sera!
Right now we are seeing a major contraction in equities, to put it kindly. The stock market is crumbling under the pressures of soaring oil.
The automotive industry is likely to consolidate now, and the airlines stocks are losing altitude almost everyday!
And now we have Starbucks, an amazing barometer in consumer discretionary income, closing nearly 600 stores!
If Commissioner Tate is in fact going to vote left of Kevin Martin, she couldn't have picked a worse time!