Sirius Sub Leader ?
Sirius announced yesterday that they would report earnings in two weeks . Coincidentally or not the same day that the FCC is scheduled to meet . Some are saying that this has significance . I am not sure about that since the FCC meeting is later in the day and Sirius is reporting at 8 in the morning . I would think that if Mel Karmazin knew something concrete that he would wait till after the FCC announced their decision .To my recollection this is the first time in the Mel Karmazin era when Sirius will report earnings before XM .
To my knowledge XM has yet to release EOY sub #'s . After they lowered their projections early in 2007 . Most analysts agreed that they would easily attain their projected 9 million subs for EOY 2007 . The fact that they have been silent for this long after the new year came upon us leads me to believe that they failed AGAIN miserably .
I believe that there is a good possibility that Mel Karmazin is going to announce that Sirius has passed the 9 million mark and XM in subscriber numbers in two weeks .
Any thoughts any one ?
First Quarter 05 gains: 205,437
First Quarter 06 gains: 761,187
First Quarter 07 gains: 556,490
End of 07 numbers: 8,321,785
In order for Sirius to hit the 9 million mark, they would have to add 678,215 subscribers in LESS THAN 2 MONTHS. They have only done this in the ENTIRE FIRST QUARTER one time, and that was just after Stern came on the air.
I doubt they have surpassed XM at this point, though they are very quickly closing the gap and I expect them to pass XM by the end of the year (if there still is an XM, which I dont expect).
Tough to argue with the numbers you quote so I won't even try . Why then IYO would Mel be compelled for the first time under his guidance would he be prompted to report first . It just seems strange to me that he would deviate from his normal routine at this point in time , unless there was some significance or advantage in it for him , the company and/or the joined companies . Karmazin is way to exacting and calculated for this to just be an at random coincidence IMHO .
Eduardo S Fernandez
There are likely a few reasons:
1. The merger seems to be all that matters. Posturing and the metrics simply are not what people are after.
2. If the merger does happen prior to March 1, XM will not have to have a call.
I agree that it is strange for Sirius to report first, and agree that there is possibly something behind it.
Over the past4 quarters or so, XM has released horrible numbers and dropped the stock prices of both stocks significantly. Sirius comes back two days later and reports good numbers, but nobody cares and the stock doesnt come back up. Maybe that is the reason? Who knows. But I agree there is something funny, but I really dont think it is about subscriber numbers (unless they are giving XM a chance to hit their year end number, but what good is two days going to do?)