SIRI Stock Value
I hold shares in SIRI. I am new to these boards. I am looking to get a concensus or a base line of information as to how the merger of SIRI with XM will impact the starting price of SIRI shares once this has been perfected.
What alligators are in the swamp and what are the odds that this thing will really come to fruitionÉ Thanks for any opinions or input.
You ask the question we all want the answer for....LOL
I believe that the merger brings with it the possibility that the company can reach positive cash flow faster than the current analyst estimate of 2009. I also believe that the merger takes a lot of risk that currently exists out of the equity. These factors should give a positive impact to the stock.
Most analysts believe that the merger odds for approval is between 50% and 60%. A couple sit down at 30%, and a couple up at 70%. I tend to side with those that believe the merger will pass.
I have yet to see a powerful argument to place odds at 30%. Those that sit down there have been there since day 1 of this process, and are basically saying that nothing has changed despite a-la -carte, pricing guarantees, filings, and public opinion. I simply do not believe that is the case.
If you listen to Jim Cramer (Which you should, albiet with a grain of salt), he says there is 25% downside and 100% upside at this point (this was said when the stock was just over $3 a share).
Today, he came out and said that he is still not certain that the government will do the right thing, and said wait for a pullback. I agree with him on the pullback opinion, but I still think that the government will do the right thing and allow the merger.
Do I think the stock price will double? Not overnight. But I am not in SIRI for a quick trade (if I was, I would have lost about 25% of my investment). I am in it for the long haul. I believe SIRI easily hits $6 if the deal is approved... but over the course of the next year to two years, not overnight. $4.50 -$5 overnight? Sure. But be ready for a pull back shortly after the merger while investors go from merger happiness to financial worries. I agree with Tyler that their financials will improve rapidly, but I think many people are expecting too much too fast. I think long term, these stocks are going to be a goldmine and they will be saying how SIRI/XMSR are the WalMart of the 50s or the GOOG of the 1990's - 2000... Ok, maybe a bit too optomistic there, but it just goes to show I have great expectations for these stocks.
I placed a buy order for XMSR the night before it jumped 7%, and I didnt get in of course. My buy order was for 13.25, and it currently sits at 14.50, which would have been a nice little profit, but oh well. I am still looking to pick up some XMSR under $14 and SIRI at around 3.25, but I do think there is significant upside to both stocks, as long as you have time to hold them.
I am starting to lose confidence in the merger. I do not like the stock movement lately and it that may indicate someone knows something about the outcome. I believe Copps is a leak out of the FCC and Jacoby is the recipient of this leak.