I am looking for opinions if there is a belief that dilution to pay off Feb Converts is already built into this price at .30.
And I do not just mean the 50M paid down, but the balance of the 250M left to go.
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I am looking for opinions if there is a belief that dilution to pay off Feb Converts is already built into this price at .30.
And I do not just mean the 50M paid down, but the balance of the 250M left to go.
If your looking for opinion then I can chime in....
I think everything is in this price. How can you take a company that the stock was at $14 and a company where the stock was $4, combine them and the stock is .30?
A company with a so called monopoly, with synergies in the 100 millions in the first year alone and both companies were looking to be profitable for the first time.
It all makes no sense. :out:
Disaster has been priced in at this point IMHO........
Baffling...can someone tell me how a stock can trade almost 68 million shares and end up just gaining a half of a PENNY?
you guys dont think if they dilute the stock to pay off the remaining 250 mill the shorts wont put us in the teens?? Then your all nuts:out: This stock is such a joke anything can happen.
an exerpt from the BASTARD KNOW NOTHING motley fool today..more bashing....
Another hurdle in the company's plans to get subscribers to pay more is concern over the company's viability as a business.
Ah, the May queen. Sirius has to pay back $350 million in XM bank debt in May. It also has a $300 million convertible tab due three months earlier, and a larger $400 million repayment by year's end. With more than $1 billion in repayments next year, the market seems to believe that the "spring clean" at Sirius XM will come in the form of filing for bankruptcy protection. That would likely wipe out its shareholders, but Sirius and XM would continue to broadcast during the reorganization.
Closed stores are a problem for Sirius XM. Its receivers haven't been selling briskly at the retail level, leaving the company to rely on incentivized auto manufacturers to push the factory-installed receivers. It also doesn't help that consumer electronics chains like Circuit City (NYSE: CC) that used to sell plenty of XM and Sirius receivers when they were hot a few holiday seasons ago, are closing down stores. Circuit City announced the closing of 155 stores this week.
The carmaker shift is fine, until you realize that General Motors (NYSE: GM) posted a whopping 45% plunge in U.S. auto sales last month. Adding insult to injury, have you seen the new GM Cadillac ads, promoting the car's 40-gig hard drive? Satellite radio and CD-ripping aren't the same, but it's just one more gadget to give a commuter less time to tune in -- and justify -- a satellite radio subscription.
The last laugh
With shares of Sirius XM down to $0.31 each, it's easy to assume the worst. In fact, I have. However, it's also easy to see the desperate bullish argument come together at this very inopportune moment for the company.
A consumer-facing company will do anything it can to avoid bankruptcy, to keep subscribers around. Survival will likely mean massive share dilution, but there is still upside to a company that was worth substantially more as a stand-alone company with a fraction of today's 18.6 million subscribers.
It's absolutely built into this price. Bankruptcy is built into this price - as book value is in the mid .40 range. I'm still optimistic that there may not be further dilution for the February debt though. I have a feeling we could hear some positive news about February on Monday. I think the stock/debt exchange for the $50mil was part of a bigger deal for the whole amount. At least, that's what I'm hopin! Wouldn't that be sweet?Quote:
Originally Posted by sxminvestor
So you're saying that if Sirius issued enough stock here to pay off the remaining $250 million -- causing dilution -- that it would drive the pps down to below $0.20?Quote:
Originally Posted by dnay1969
Let's look at that on paper...
It's currently at $0.32 now and a drop to $0.19 is a drop of $0.13 total. That would be a drop of $416 million in market cap -- due to a dilution of $250 million? Seems a bit dramatic, don't you think?
If the stock wasn't ALREADY below its FAIR VALUE, I might agree somewhat with you... however, this stock is below its fair value -- so really, any equity for debt exchanges at this point will have very little effect on the market cap of this company. IMHO
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Russell Frank Co...Buying SIRI 4-Nov-08 05:09 pm Newest Insti Holder with (8,943,294 shrs)11-03-08
Lookie here!!!!and don't be fooled by the Negative thinkers and Shorties here.
http://www.mffais.com/siri.html
Now That link gives me alot of hope!!! I thank you sir!! There are others that are supposed to be more "stock wise" than I am buying!!!
Rick F...
i bought 5000 yesterday at .30...will buy another 5000-7000 shares soon and will average my original investment down to .98
Does anyone trade options?
If you do you understand intrinsic value and time value. If you don't, in a nutshell intrinsic value is what the option is actually worth (in the money). The time value is the "life's possibility", if you will, value. It allows for the possibility that something good can happen, in other words, it allows us the chance that our underlying stock will increase in value, due to any number of things.
Now, how this relates to SIRI is that our intrinsic value is essentially zero (0). But what we do have is time value. We have this because as long as the company hasn't filed BK or done the RS we have hope that something great will happen. We know it can. We just hope it will.
Now getting back to your question, "is dilution priced in?" It's not completely priced in. How can I say this with certainty? Because it hasn't been voted in and it hasn't been declared by the company.
There are still many hopefuls out there, including myself, that are holding our positions and maybe even buying in more that are helping to provide some sort of floor. But that doesn't mean we aren't going lower.
There's only one real way to invest in this company, or any other for that matter. I'll share if someone wants to know my opinion, otherwise I won't waste your time. It seems like everyone on here is pretty confident in their own investment style/strategy.
SiriusHope -
I admire your conviction. What you're doing is really the best way of giving yourself the best odds of making a successful investment. I hope it works out for you.
Thanks Getit...
WE ALL must have conviction...no matter how much we are in the hole...there is hope for the hopeful and no hope for the hopeless. We must give our investments time to grow...just never forget "nothing great is created suddenly".
I too am behind over $7000. I sold 7500 shares at .36 with an average at 1.38 and now bought back 5000 at .30 and expect to add more shares before mondays 3Q CC to bring my avg down further to under a dollar.
Then be hopeful it will go to 3.00 in the next year or so.