Tyler Savery GO OUT ON A LIMB!!!!

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05-09-2009, 09:13 PM
LIBOR/TED SPREAD

Tyler Savery GO OUT ON A LIMB!!!!

"Most analysts cover several stocks. Because of that they do not have the time to dive into the metrics. I am not tooting my own horn here, but I have taken the time to understand the metrics deeper than most analysts as well as investors"

Tyler Savery

We all know BM is often WRONG (85% of the time) but one thing he has on you Tyler is he put himself out there (obviously too much out there), It's time for you to step up to the next level, you know more then the analysts regarding SIRIXM, you probably know more then most SIRIXM brass. You made a great call with your net loss and churn #'s it's time to leave the conservative Tyler and go out on a limb. We know you dont have your series 6,7,63, or 66 we know your not a financial planner no one is going to take legal action if your wrong (if that was the case BM would be doing 15-20).

WHAT DO YOU BELIEVE IS THE FAIR MKT CAP OF SIRIXM based on the $350M EBITDA and all other metrics? We would love to see a break down of what YOU believe the mkt cap and stock price should be, based on YOUR understanding of SIRIXM and how you get to these #'s AND/OR MKT CAP & SP based on different potential outcomes.

NOW WITH POSITIVE EBITDA WE CAN START PUTTING A MULTIPLE ON THE COMPANY AND UNDERSTAND IF THIS IS A $2B company or $20B company based on market cap.

P.S. I am a loyal SB reader and today bought my first item from one of your web ads. I also made sure I gave sirius buzz the credit on how I found their site.
05-09-2009, 09:24 PM
imromo24

LIBOR welcome back, great points made.
05-09-2009, 11:06 PM
TSavery

Quote:

Originally Posted by LIBOR/TED SPREAD

"Most analysts cover several stocks. Because of that they do not have the time to dive into the metrics. I am not tooting my own horn here, but I have taken the time to understand the metrics deeper than most analysts as well as investors"

Tyler Savery

We all know BM is often WRONG (85% of the time) but one thing he has on you Tyler is he put himself out there (obviously too much out there), It's time for you to step up to the next level, you know more then the analysts regarding SIRIXM, you probably know more then most SIRIXM brass. You made a great call with your net loss and churn #'s it's time to leave the conservative Tyler and go out on a limb. We know you dont have your series 6,7,63, or 66 we know your not a financial planner no one is going to take legal action if your wrong (if that was the case BM would be doing 15-20).

WHAT DO YOU BELIEVE IS THE FAIR MKT CAP OF SIRIXM based on the $350M EBITDA and all other metrics? We would love to see a break down of what YOU believe the mkt cap and stock price should be, based on YOUR understanding of SIRIXM and how you get to these #'s AND/OR MKT CAP & SP based on different potential outcomes.

NOW WITH POSITIVE EBITDA WE CAN START PUTTING A MULTIPLE ON THE COMPANY AND UNDERSTAND IF THIS IS A $2B company or $20B company based on market cap.

P.S. I am a loyal SB reader and today bought my first item from one of your web ads. I also made sure I gave sirius buzz the credit on how I found their site.

Going out on a limb.....

Was I out on a limb calling for over 400,000 losses in subscribers? I don't recall anyone really being in that neighborhood until I went out there and did it.

Yes, I stay conservative, but I do not want to find myself in jail. You wont see me trading the stock. Not because I don't want to, but because I do not want even the slightest impression that I am trading about an equity I write about. By example, Seeking Alpha has very specific requirements about how contributors trade stock. One of those is, "If the author intends at the time or writing to sell or buy a stock within three days of publication of an article that discusses that stock, the author must disclose this." This is why I do not trade the stock. I take those agreements seriously.

I wrote about the technicals, and the trading range between 40 cents and 60 cents. If going out on a limb meant making a statement that the stock had "potential" to go to 75 cents, then I guess I did not go on that limb. However, I felt there was not enough support behind the stock to get it to those levels.

Of the three sites contacted with the MLB rumor, I was the site that made the rumor known to readers.

Perhaps the difference is that I do tend to write in a more conservative way that is rooted in information that is vetted out. I avoid being out in the wild swinging in the wind. If I have a theory about something, I will do a bit of research on it before posting it up for readers.

People who see this site as a valuable tool that gives them quality information. Whether I like it or not, I have an implied responsibility to make sure what goes onto the site is of the highest caliber. I wont post something for the sake of posting.

If putting myself "out there" means publishing information that is not accurate I wont ever be out there.

I can be edgy, but it will always be researched. I can speculate, but it will be grounded in assumptions that are supported by known commodities.

I am glad you enjoy the site, and look forward to seeing you here in the forums and on the SiriusBuzz Radio show.
05-10-2009, 10:21 AM
nisvan

I think if you take all of tyler's comments
and editorials, as a whole, the man hasn't gotten out on a
limb. He's out on the edge of the freakin leaves.
I don't think he's holding back at all. The best we can
ask for is an interpretation of the facts. He's done that
quite well, most excellently, in fact, and perhaps better than anyone in the business. You see: Anyone can speculate. see www.fool.com
Thanks for all.
05-10-2009, 11:12 AM
TSavery

Quote:

Originally Posted by nisvan

I think if you take all of tyler's comments
and editorials, as a whole, the man hasn't gotten out on a
limb. He's out on the edge of the freakin leaves.
I don't think he's holding back at all. The best we can
ask for is an interpretation of the facts. He's done that
quite well, most excellently, in fact, and perhaps better than anyone in the business. You see: Anyone can speculate. see www.fool.com
Thanks for all.

Thank you for the kind words. Perhaps my writing style is such that it comes off as more conservative. I think that I typically avoid baseless speculation that sometimes gets sensationalized. Not referring to anyone in particular with this comment. There are many articles out there that bring a concept to the table that sounds neat at first blush, but a more in depth look will typically bear out why something has or has not happened.

Speculation is good if you do it in a careful manner, and there is a decent chance that the speculation is, or will become reality.

It is such speculation where I have a strong disagreement with Michael Hartlieb. He is well aware of my opinions on some of his speculation, and respects my opinion.
05-10-2009, 02:17 PM
LIBOR/TED SPREAD

I agree!! Maybe I went about this all wrong. I just want to see the man that knows SIRIXM better then anyone give his 2 cents (no pun intended) on what the valuation of SIRIXM is in Tyler's view.

Tyler based on $350M EBITDA in 2009 in your opinion what is a resonable MKT CAP for SIRIXM.

5 yrs ago we traded at 20x press release as there was little to no revenue and + EBITDA was a glimmer in Clayton's eye yet a combine mkt cap of well over $10B. Now we are here it has happen back to back + EBITDA with $350M expected for THIS YEAR. (Remember S&P doubted we would break $300M)

Tyler, If you won't give your opinion on a stock price or market cap can you share an outline/formula we can start playing with to get an idea on the valuation of the company?
05-10-2009, 03:02 PM
TSavery

Quote:

Originally Posted by LIBOR/TED SPREAD

I agree!! Maybe I went about this all wrong. I just want to see the man that knows SIRIXM better then anyone give his 2 cents (no pun intended) on what the valuation of SIRIXM is in Tyler's view.

Tyler based on $350M EBITDA in 2009 in your opinion what is a resonable MKT CAP for SIRIXM.

5 yrs ago we traded at 20x press release as there was little to no revenue and + EBITDA was a glimmer in Clayton's eye yet a combine mkt cap of well over $10B. Now we are here it has happen back to back + EBITDA with $350M expected for THIS YEAR. (Remember S&P doubted we would break $300M)

Tyler, If you won't give your opinion on a stock price or market cap can you share an outline/formula we can start playing with to get an idea on the valuation of the company?

From a conservative standpoint and leaving room for growth, I would apply a multiple of 8. If you are more bullish, you may use a multiple of 10. Media companies are being beat up across the board right now, so you need to bear that in mind.