Market Watch for week of 8/17/2009

Check last week's thread to catch up. I am sorry that we had to end the thread for last week. It was a huge week and there is tons of great information there to continue with and unanswered posts.

Anyway, here is the new thread for the week.

Anybody that is reading or lurking in this thread is welcome to post. We are a very peaceful investment team here and we all help each other in any way that we can.

If this is your first time here...then welcome!

From the crew that resides within these walls...have fun and help each other learn and hopefully succeed!

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Whoops, got caught in the lockdown... going to repost so it all makes sense..

Overall -

First compare to market thus far... toys a little behind the SP500 - but, many of the leaders in the SP500 were the companies that had direct stimulus packages... ie. unregulated tarp funds to the banks, etc... so this isn't suprising, expecially since toys go with consumer sentiment, and its the average joe who's losing their jobs that buy toys...

However, you can see that the toy index has formed a channel in green and may be making a breakout as SP may turn over.

http://www.scripps.edu/~davess/siri8/HAS1.png

But - (take into account that asian markets are dumping pretty big right now and SP500 futures are dropping at the moment)...

It appears that there may be a chance for the toy index to pop above resistance tomorrow - if it could close the week out up, while the rest of the market craps (if the market craps) that would be bullish for toy stocks... perhaps on the hopes of toy sales later in the year...

On the flipside, if it dumps... perhaps I'd wait on a position.. .or compare how HAS does to the toy index... ie. if the other toys are out of favor, and the index drops, but HAS can bust that $29 level in the next posts, its a go TA wise.


http://www.scripps.edu/~davess/siri8/HAS2.png

Monthly -

here's where I'm a little bearish on the monthly scale... if there isn't a breakout for the toy index (though, again, watch HAS vs. the toys, as if what's said the other toys fall out of favor - you will see a diversion between the index and HAS), and the market dumps (asian stocks dumping now, and SP500 futures - well all index futures, dropping), then there may be a head and shoulders top forming, with the base at $20 - however, the timing of it appears that the head and shoulders could be a fake.. ie. head to $20, to shake folks out and prep for the $20 piercing... but then rally over xmas sales and Q1 reports... so if it does head down, look for a price and rebound near the $20 levels

http://www.scripps.edu/~davess/siri8/HAS3.png

Weekly
The previous intermediate high didn't make a new high, but we have a higher low... if the market/index/stock take a dip down, look for HAS to keep a higher low, and that could be a good buy point for xmas/Q1

Here you can also see from the blue arrows, how $29 is a strong support/resistance line. Also the fibs play a role in trading. ie, once the 61.8% was pierced, it took a dive. Seems there is a band between 38.2% and $29 where it runs into trouble

http://www.scripps.edu/~davess/siri8/HAS4.png

great T/A dave.... hey tyler let us know what move you make and when. ok?

I am going to re-post also. I got caught in the "lockdown" also.

The past 4 days have been Umbrellas. That means that there could be a reversal due to indecision by buyers. It means that sellers were winning out during the day, but the buyers managed to push the price back to the opening price at the end of the day.

After long declines this can be a bullish indicator, but it is an indicator that has to be confirmed with a turn either in a bullish or bearish reversal. The accuracy is rated at medium for dependability.

I mixed my words up on the chart. I meant to say -50 or less...Northward!

http://www.coloradohandyman.com/MGLG2.jpg

Daily -

Not sure of a breakout, usually for a handle, you don't want to see rising lows... but that's not always indicative of a failure..

The 200 day isn't moving up yet, I'd look also for a bounce, if it heads down off of the 50 or 200...

The 61.8% retractment on the daily appears to be support at the moment too.

http://www.scripps.edu/~davess/siri8/HAS5.png

On the 60 minute... it looks like the price is about to make a decision between the upper and lower sets of lines. Closing above either extreme may indicate which way it's going.

http://www.scripps.edu/~davess/siri8/HAS6.png

So - *today* its iffy for the TA trader... but longer term, like for Q1 earnings and xmas store reports, you could see a decent upside. Currently, the charts point to where HAS and the toy index move relative to each other and the SP500/NYSE. It does appear though, the movements this week could dictate which way it could possibly run, unless we get into more channeling.

Overall, its an undecided question mark to me until we see how HAS/DJ toys/SP play out in the upcoming days... then things may be a little more clear. Of course, from the speculative angle, and patience, entering anywhere below $29 and having the patience for a drawdown is ok. I see the key levels TA wise to be $20 and $29.

i said a purchase at a close above 28 and another purchase above 30... i need to learn to refine my buy targets... if that was my purchase i may have done it at a resistance level and that is a no-no

On HAS I think that I would be looking at the sma30, but that is just me. The 50 is a bit far out with the time span displayed. I could be very well wrong, but am trying to tie into the thought process there..any thoughts on that Dave? I am just wondering.

If the 200 and the 50 meet up and climb together, then it is solid, but wouldn't a 30 be beneficial? Not challenging...just asking and learning the reasoning.

Now with HAS with an ema9 and ema39, on your chart, that gives a real perspective for day trading the stock. I am "all in" with that. Those are my favorites anyway. ;)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by billhart22

On HAS I think that I would be looking at the sma30, but that is just me. The 50 is a bit far out with the time span displayed. I could be very well wrong, but am trying to tie into the thought process there..any thoughts on that Dave? I am just wondering.

If the 200 and the 50 meet up and climb together, then it is solid, but wouldn't a 30 be beneficial? Not challenging...just asking and learning the reasoning.

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I just put 50 and 200 there, as for these slower big exchange stocks that's the default. I don't know how Tyler trades... if he's been in SIRI for a long time, he has patience, and likely is more speculative. 20 day moving averages are used a lot, or folks also use others like 30. Depends on how you are going to trade it. If I have time, I could backtest a series, but the way this guy kind of runs in a more narrow range, it may not show a clear trading system. Any questions always ok, and remember, I'm not a pro. The only thing I can say with any certainty is, is where the different forms of support and resistance are, as those have a definition, so to speak, so they are what they are. Then you run into the multitude of ways to trade things.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dr. Dave

I just put 50 and 200 there, as for these slower big exchange stocks that's the default. I don't know how Tyler trades... if he's been in SIRI for a long time, he has patience, and likely is more speculative. 20 day moving averages are used a lot, or folks also use others like 30. Depends on how you are going to trade it. If I have time, I could backtest a series, but the way this guy kind of runs in a more narrow range, it may not show a clear trading system. Any questions always ok, and remember, I'm not a pro. The only thing I can say with any certainty is, is where the different forms of support and resistance are, as those have a definition, so to speak, so they are what they are. Then you run into the multitude of ways to trade things.

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I do the same thing a lot. I am trying to prove one point and then let the other stuff rip. Now I understand why. Thanks, you are a trooper!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bassmaster

i said a purchase at a close above 28 and another purchase above 30... i need to learn to refine my buy targets... if that was my purchase i may have done it at a resistance level and that is a no-no

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$28 with momentum, and close stops isn't bad, anticipating breaking $29, with the higher highs and lows behind it... it would be a good go also once it hits $30.66, where that gap in early 2008 (going off memory) and the 50% retractment is. Again with tight stops. But again, for a speculative play and the super long term patience and ability to take drawdowns, any day is a good day.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dr. Dave

$28 with momentum, and close stops isn't bad, anticipating breaking $29, with the higher highs and lows behind it... it would be a good go also once it hits $30.66, where that gap in early 2008 (going off memory) and the 50% retractment is. Again with tight stops. But again, for a speculative play and the super long term patience and ability to take drawdowns, any day is a good day.

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Momentum is the factor. You called it well, because as Dave pointed out, the volume has been decreasing. Personally, I think I would sit on the sidelines for a few days and see where it compares to the sma30. Once it makes a move above the sma 30, I would wait for one more confirmation candle and ride it up, but still keeping a really close look to see if it is an official run and staying above sma30. I would use the timeline with Dave's chart to declare it a run or a sputter. A couple of days of positive on a long and a stock at this price would be prudent. After all, it is a real stock.

These real stocks, lol, generally will take a rise and then fall back a bit and then climb. A person wants to catch them on the second rise. Yes, it costs more, but in the long run it will pay off. It will cost a hell of a lot less in the long run.

Just some thoughts....agree or disagree with me...I am open.

ya i may have called it well, but not with conditions or the right explanation. its still a leak in my game.

Good night all...I have to work tomorrow for a while. A handyman only works 4 hours a day, maximum. I don't want to wear myself out..I just want to make money.

I love the comment about 2 years ago by John Kasich (former Congressman) that, "What handyman isn't a convicted criminal?". With that said, I say, "Good Night"! It is time for lights out here in the big house, lol!

Great luck tomorrow for all of us! :)

Bill

gn bill...gl with your trades and have fun at work...i do!!!

Could be an options play... PCLN has a tendency to close earnings gaps...
see the 2007 chart

http://www.scripps.edu/~davess/siri8/PCLN-2007.png

We'll keep an eye on PCLN sept puts:

symbol: PNEUG
$135 strike
current price $220

They may be a go if price breaks the top blue line, but that's a little risky... maybe wait until the second blue line, but have to really be ready, or maybe choose the $130 strike...

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=PCLN&m=2009-09

http://www.scripps.edu/~davess/siri8/PCLN.png

I don't like the ATR though, you want that down... I think the price of the options are generally too expensive when it is trending up.

I"m also looking at JPM.

The general market may consolidate sideways, which makes these things much more risky to trade. The JPM ones are half the price though, so its not a biggie if we lose 50%.

I may be too busy at work for a setup this week, we'll see. The way its been going tonight though, all I've done is look at charts.

whoops, that last red arrow on the 2007 chart should be scooted over. I also noted in light blue how this stock will hold in the upper end for a while after earnings, then decline.

Each stock is different, that I can tell you.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by billhart22

Momentum is the factor. You called it well, because as Dave pointed out, the volume has been decreasing. Personally, I think I would sit on the sidelines for a few days and see where it compares to the sma30. Once it makes a move above the sma 30, I would wait for one more confirmation candle and ride it up, but still keeping a really close look to see if it is an official run and staying above sma30. I would use the timeline with Dave's chart to declare it a run or a sputter. A couple of days of positive on a long and a stock at this price would be prudent. After all, it is a real stock.

These real stocks, lol, generally will take a rise and then fall back a bit and then climb. A person wants to catch them on the second rise. Yes, it costs more, but in the long run it will pay off. It will cost a hell of a lot less in the long run.

Just some thoughts....agree or disagree with me...I am open.

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A climb above the $29 mark, and then a fall back to the line, and then back up is what Raschke would play... the second run, often the 2-3 move in an elliot wave. It's the safest of the TA plays... I think she's in the group that plays more to not lose money, rather than to make a quick buck. There's basically 4-5 pro's I've been trying to learn from or watch... each has their merits. Also, like Bill is saying, with using the moving averages, (make that 6 pro's lol) a new upswing, and establishing an upward moving average, with price above, someone like O'Neil - would take the first pull back to the line... I think what's key for pullbacks to moving averages, trendlines whatever, is looking at the candles - which is what Nison does, he's a candlestick god, who combines them with support/resistance in the form of moving averages, price, channels, fibs, etc. So looking for a hammer on a big board stock and then confirmation the following day combined with a bounce of some support is always a good thing.

Hey guys,

Not sure if posting charts would violate my TOS from another site I use, but futures are tanking and the ES mini (sp500) already took out a key support level. The NQ - nasdaq, is riding the line right now. Both broke thru 3 day Donchian channel bottom lines, that's not good. Not sure if you guys have anything in the general market, but look out tomorrow.

In asia, the SSEC is down 5.79%, and Europe is straight red across the board.

Ugly.

This doesn't really mean anything for the pennies, except for SIRI, since it's listed and a lot of techies that trade baskets of stocks will drop this before they drop AAPL.

While things could mellow out, I usually look to futures to see what the rest of the market will do. If we get monday closes below some of these short term trendlines, we could be getting some form of correction, whether its building some other pattern, like a triangle, new channel, handle or tankage. Some of these futures were kind of locked in trading ranges, and it looks, at least tonight, the resolution may be to the downside.

Of course, by morning everything could change, but its looking bleak at the moment.

I may be juggling early, but
JPMUH sept $40 strike puts on JPM may be ok, will look at the stock price tomorrow, cheaper than PCLN puts.