$347 million in Cash Flow so far this year

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11-07-2009, 09:17 AM
MUSCLE13

$347 million in Cash Flow so far this year

As we all know media stocks including Sirius are always valued on the street by EBITDA multiples. So far Sirius has $347 million in adjusted EBITDA in 2009. Mel is projecting $400 million this year and a 20% increase in EBITDA next year.

Now with every quarter so far coming in with over $100 million in EBITDA, Sirius is projecting only about $53 million more in the 4th quarter? I think Mel is low balling the figure. I know Frear said on the call they have a big ad campaign coming out, but this EBITDA number??? It seems low to me.

My guess is they come in over $450 million this year and close to $600 mil in EBITDA in 2010.

My target Market Cap is 20 times $600 million or $12 Billion.
11-07-2009, 09:52 AM
SiriuslyLong

They have some debt due in December. I think 80MM. I'm assuming they will pay it in cash. This will effect the overall number for 2009. But I agree with you. Mel is a smart man. There's an old saying in sales / business in general, "under promise, over deliver."

At your market cap, we'd be at ~$3.00 per share. I'll take that. I'm so geeked, that I may very well go buy 10,000 more shares. LOL.

The only setback for quarter 4 I can think of is if some of those cash for clunkers subs go south. Sub numbers MUST increase in quarter 4. It will be a disaster if they don't.
11-07-2009, 10:10 AM
MUSCLE13

SiriuslyLong - I think you are mixing up some numbers here. First of all EBITDA generation does not change whether or not they pay off that debt you are talking about. Its unrelated.

They have about 6.5 billion share outstanding (including the Liberty stake) . If you take my market cap target minus debt plus cash you come to an Enterprise Value around 9 Billion so I am thinking about a one year target price around $1.40.

Just my opinion on valuation. I think it goes much higher than that in the years to come.

I would really like to hear Spencer start talking his numbers on SiriusBuzz radio. Where is the radio show?
11-08-2009, 12:59 PM
SiriuslyLong

Quote:

Originally Posted by MUSCLE13

SiriuslyLong - I think you are mixing up some numbers here. First of all EBITDA generation does not change whether or not they pay off that debt you are talking about. Its unrelated.

They have about 6.5 billion share outstanding (including the Liberty stake) . If you take my market cap target minus debt plus cash you come to an Enterprise Value around 9 Billion so I am thinking about a one year target price around $1.40.

Just my opinion on valuation. I think it goes much higher than that in the years to come.

I would really like to hear Spencer start talking his numbers on SiriusBuzz radio. Where is the radio show?

Thanks for clearing that up. I'm certainly no expert.
11-11-2009, 08:25 AM
MUSCLE13

I'm sorry I mixed up some terminology here. 20 times my EBITDA estimate of 600 mil in 2010 would give an EV of 12 Billion take away debt and add cash and you get a market cap of about 9 Billion divide that by 6.5 billion shares and you get a target price of close to $1.40.